Good morning everyone. Here is the first of my twice daily reports on the current state of the outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 16th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show the UK under the influence of a large depression to the west of the UK with a showery SSW flow across the UK, not very strong but providing the catalyst for a lot of heavy showers across Southern and Western Britain with far fewer elsewhere. This pattern remains in place for the next 24-36 hours with the showers if anything becoming more frequent and widespread as Low pressure draws into UK air space. On Saturday a new Low will push rain North across the UK and this could prove quite persistent and heavy in places before clearing to showers on Sunday. By Monday pressure will have slackened across the UK and while still quite Low with light winds the day could well end up dry for many and rather chilly with some frost and freezing fog patches possible in places. By Tuesday the next Low pressure will be knocking on the door of western Britain with strengthening winds and rain by Tuesday.
GFS shows this Low moving ESE over the North sea and Europe turning winds towards the North for a time soon after midweek with a drier period developing with night frosts next weekend. this doesn't last long though before a rinse and repeat pattern of what's gone before develops with some wintry showers on the Western flank of the exiting Low in generally cold conditions at the end of the run before winds swing Easterly at the end of the run giving some sleet or snow over Southern and Eastern Britain.
The GFS Ensembles show the pattern that we currently have seen of late generally maintained with the added conditions of somewhat colder conditions at times as Low pressure cross ESE down the north Sea giving the UK something of a swipe at colder NW winds on the rear f departing depressions. The operationals wintry end to it's run was not well supported with most members keeping a much more moderate reduction in overall temperatures values and with the incidence of rain still all too frequent.
UKMO this morning closes it's morning run next Wednesday with a shallow Low pressure near SW England moving SE. An area of rain will be lying across the UK in association with this and this could well result in some snowfall in the North and East as colder air is drawn in from Europe undercutting the feature.
GEM shows Low pressure slipping down over the UK later next week as a much deeper feature than UKMO and as a result bringing yet another spell of wind and rain followed by showers across all districts with little respite beyond a window of drier weather shown on Day 10.
NAVGEM is broadly similar in format to GEM with a belt of Low pressure down the North Sea at the end of the run with a chilly and showery NW feed across the UK.
ECM follows the general trend of this new Low pressure feeding SE later next week with rain and showers in tow for all before it clears away to the SE allowing a temporary cold incursion of air on a ridge of High pressure to make it's presence felt later with frost and fog patches before further Atlantic fronts move in again from the NW by Day 10.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning reveal the status-quo persists from earlier versions of these charts in that the favoured option between members of it's ensemble group show a trough down across the North sea with the UK lying in a West or NW flow between Low pressure to the NW and High over the Azores. One can deduce from this that the current changeable pattern persists over the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream forecast this morning shows the flow largely maintaining it's current pattern for the reliable future with longer term indications suggesting no meaningful change other than a short migration NE of the flow further across Northern Britain for a time later next week before resetting back further South later.
In Summary this morning we have little overall change in the pattern of unsettled weather under a UK trough. With cold air to the NE we have to be mindful of what could happen if the synoptic pattern falls our way and UKMO shows some degree of that this morning giving an interesting chart for next Wednesday which with a few tweaks could be a good chart for coldies. however, the general consensus remains that the underlying feeling remains for the cold to stay the other side of the North Sea while we continue to suffer from troughs of Low pressure running in off the Atlantic with rain and showers and occasional hill snow largely in the North at times with short transitory colder interludes with frost.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset