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The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 16:08:40

game over on GFS.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
15 January 2014 16:11:53


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011512/gfsnh-0-96.png?12


upstream pattern marginally better but not enough to save us. Fat lady putting her shoes on and getting ready to enter stage....


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


If she does, she's at least a month too early IMO.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
15 January 2014 16:14:33

game over on GFS.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Fancy posting something factual or informative? 😝

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png 

A little bit of everything but at the same time quite a lot of nothing. It ties in well with the outlook having a chance of cooler interludes at times with unsettled spells of weather but nothing too exciting generally. Certainly not a mild zonal fest and I have no idea what the "winter is over" style comments about. I can only presume some have faulty calendars?
The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 16:16:49

I can only presume some have faulty calendars?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 



March is a winter month these days I suppose


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
15 January 2014 16:17:09
Models have been showing some very cold air in FI just to our north, with little in the way of LP making it through to North Scandinavia.

I think Sensibly - this is where Cold weather fans should begin to look towards any sustained cold.
The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 16:19:49

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN120-21.GIF?15-17


so close.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
johnm1976
15 January 2014 16:21:16
12z gives us a wonderfully short lived "cool blast". Not much change from 6z out to t+150.
The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 16:23:50

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
jondg14
15 January 2014 16:25:51


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The low is trying to slide. That pesky Azores high is proping everything up though.

roger63
15 January 2014 16:27:02


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Could the Lp be a slider?

Rob K
15 January 2014 16:29:21

I can only presume some have faulty calendars?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 



March is a winter month these days I suppose

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



And a four-week spell known as "February" often occurs shortly after the end of January.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
15 January 2014 16:38:13

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes, another straw to grab hold of for another set of runs at least. The good thing with this straw is its the UKMO model and at 144. Lets see what ECM brings tonight. If it supports UKMO we might be in business. I share the concern about the Azores High though.
GGTTH
David M Porter
15 January 2014 16:53:24


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 



Yes, another straw to grab hold of for another set of runs at least. The good thing with this straw is its the UKMO model and at 144. Lets see what ECM brings tonight. If it supports UKMO we might be in business. I share the concern about the Azores High though.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


On the other hand, the Azores High could play a part in helping us to get out of this zonal rut. I'm not sure but I think it did so at this time last January in as much as it helped to end the zonal period we had over Xmas 2012 & New Year 2013, but I may be wrong in my recollection.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Whether Idle
15 January 2014 17:04:14

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 



Yes, another straw to grab hold of for another set of runs at least. The good thing with this straw is its the UKMO model and at 144. Lets see what ECM brings tonight. If it supports UKMO we might be in business. I share the concern about the Azores High though.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Isn't the Met O 144 merely delaying the inevitable Atlantic domination for 24 hours, as Beast suggests? The low will probably be consumed by the next low departing the eastern seaboard rather than slide. The continent of Europe to our east is warm for the time of year and the Baltic is far from "Baltic" as it is pretty much ice free. We need to look north and NW for a True Greenland - Icelandic High and for a potent northerly which could develop into an easterly with time. The best hope for true winter weather now lies in such a development, probably in the mid February period, IMHO.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Arbroath 1320
15 January 2014 17:14:02


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Yes, another straw to grab hold of for another set of runs at least. The good thing with this straw is its the UKMO model and at 144. Lets see what ECM brings tonight. If it supports UKMO we might be in business. I share the concern about the Azores High though.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 



Isn't the Met O 144 merely delaying the inevitable Atlantic domination for 24 hours, as Beast suggests? The low will probably be consumed by the next low departing the eastern seaboard rather than slide. The continent of Europe to our east is warm for the time of year and the Baltic is far from "Baltic" as it is pretty much ice free. We need to look north and NW for a True Greenland - Icelandic High and for a potent northerly which could develop into an easterly with time. The best hope for true winter weather now lies in such a development, probably in the mid February period, IMHO.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I don't disagree, it could be a case of delaying the inevitable Atlantic push. When you look at the progression of the Atlantic low between 120 and 144 there is still a lot of energy going East as well as Sout East and this has the effect of shunting the High pressure a bit further East. It's what happens beyond 144 is the question. We've all seen lows in this situation dive under the block but I do agree that it looks a long shot, particularly with the Azores High exerting it's influence.


 


GGTTH
Quantum
15 January 2014 17:14:43

The GFS 12z is interesting because that LP over the baffin has weakened significantly. If it gets any weaker the north atlantic high may become amplified and move towards greenland. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
jondg14
15 January 2014 17:16:17



http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


undercuts just enough to send fat lady back to the dressing room for another day


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes, another straw to grab hold of for another set of runs at least. The good thing with this straw is its the UKMO model and at 144. Lets see what ECM brings tonight. If it supports UKMO we might be in business. I share the concern about the Azores High though.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


On the other hand, the Azores High could play a part in helping us to get out of this zonal rut. I'm not sure but I think it did so at this time last January in as much as it helped to end the zonal period we had over Xmas 2012 & New Year 2013, but I may be wrong in my recollection.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You're right. The first break we had from the zonal rut was the Azores high nudging over the UK


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-4-0-0.png

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
15 January 2014 17:33:23
Bearing in mind the GFS 12z run from today 15th January to the end of this month, today's GFS has for the areas that matter.

Hugely Positive NAO Oscillation, with waves of both cold and mild Airmasses, brought in from the North and Mid NW and the East N Atlantic Seas, affecting the UK and much of West and NW Europe, areas of PV Low Pressure bringing regular rain and showers mild West and SW winds, and some Cold Low Pressure from same areas bringing some sleet and snow showers to the aforementioned areas.

High Zonality, with some two day spells of Azores High pressure Ridging also in attendance to bring some relief.

Cold NW flow's with brief northerly's also showing up.

I am commenting about GFS out to 348hrs or higher up.

Now I shall see UKMO and the ECMWF updates in half hour and further 1 hour after that!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
SEMerc
15 January 2014 18:37:55

LOL, no-one commenting on the ECM?

The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 18:39:15

ECM not as good as UKMO, but enough uncertainty with the phasing of these troughs and jet profile to keep the interest alive for another die. Tomorrow perhaps we can put this one to bed but not yet!


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Whether Idle
15 January 2014 18:39:23


LOL, no-one commenting on the ECM?


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Not as cold as UKMO, game over.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 18:41:57

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011512/gem-0-216.png?12


GEM has a similar 168 chart to ECM and ends like this. As long as we can  keep the energy sliding into europe there is always a chance


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
15 January 2014 18:43:19

ECM and GFS both amplyfying mid atlantic high now. New trend?


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
15 January 2014 18:43:57
The UKMO 12z run, all the way upto t144hrs, looks fine, Large Parent Low Over the UK, then Speads to Iceland and Whole of West SW Central Europe, SE winds will occur or they will blow from the Southwest- these directions look set to keep the UK les cold and rather mild, and the Sa,e is true at t120 and t144hrs further NW to SE Low P Tracking that pushes the less cold air over the UK.

The Western parts of the UK and in the SW look like being in colder NW winds, otherwise if Cyclonic then the T850'and 500hPa temps look colder for the SW and the West, at least during much of the forecast period.

Have it like that I am happy, the Eastern and SE parts at the SE or NE side of the Passing PV Low Centre's look set for bands of heavy rain and blustery rain showers and winds either SW or SE direction.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
The Beast from the East
15 January 2014 18:44:31

I'll take this. Darren often says it takes a few goes to get an easterly!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011512/ECH1-192.GIF?15-0


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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