There's a vast number of showers piling in from the SW now. They look to bring a lot more precipitation than GFS (let alone NAE) predicted for the morning.
Come the afternoon, GFS sees some more organised stuff moving across England, and the Met Office charts concur, with a rapid-fire of 'popcorn' showers and organised bands.
There's then some more persistent rain looking likely from tomorrow night through Saturday.
The River Avon is back on the rise this morning after 9.2mm over the 48 hours up to the end of yesterday. To be honest I'm surprised to see that response, as it usually varies according to longer time scales - must be the very saturated soils playing their part.
I don't know why there isn't a warning for rainfall there, as it's not hard to see how 30-40mm could accumulate over the next 72 hours.
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On