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JACKO4EVER
16 January 2014 20:02:57
Yep, though a thoroughly wet, miserable and cool chart. Certainly trending less mild ATM


Many thanks JackoUserPostedImage


It's all over the shop Marcus. Many people I know take that as being first signs of a pattern change, though this time I am completely unsure. With the US upstream pattern and dominant jet, it's a hard call. Certainly less encouraging for mild folk like me LOL !
Jiries
16 January 2014 20:40:31

Best run of the day goes to the JMA! Cold and snowy!



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



lol that would effect my flight back home if this happen.
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2014 21:00:03

Best run of the day goes to the JMA! Cold and snowy!



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



lol that would effect my flight back home if this happen.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Ironic if you got stuck in Canada because of snow in England.



Seen worse ECM day 6 means
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Stormchaser
16 January 2014 21:00:06



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014011612/nmm-25-35-0.png?16-17


For anyone not looking in the precipitation thread, this WRF precipitation projection is alarming...


70mm across the Southampton area from 2pm today, with 45-50mm of that falling tomorrow. What in the name of...?!


 


In theory, there is the chance of a very severe event unfolding having not been forecast by the Met Office. Yikes.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Nothing like that showing up on NAE:


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/16/basis12/ukuk/rsum/14011800_1612.gif


 


Heavy stuff comin in from the west by T48 though: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prec/14011812_1612.gif


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


NAE seems to be terrible at predicting convection these days - it killed all of todays showers right on the coast, and that's far from been the case, with around 15mm up to 8pm at my home location and nearly as much here in Reading.


Interesting to see that it concurs with WRF regarding a slow moving, narrow, frontal system delivering some very high totals across a thin swathe of England and/or Wales Saturday-Sunday. The 48 hour chart has 74mm accumulated between Poole and  Plymouth 

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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gusty
16 January 2014 21:06:12


Agree Phil, however, given the way the models have behaved for the last fortnight anything after 96 hours is  speculation at the moment and very much FI. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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nsrobins
16 January 2014 21:18:02

A few more colder options I see again on the ECM ENS:
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Arcus
16 January 2014 21:40:33


A few more colder options I see again on the ECM ENS:
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed Neil, but as I said in the previous thread to someone who suggested that until De Bilt goes cold, we won't see cold here - there's the opton of colder air filtering in from the NE which would not necessarily be shown in the De Bilts. The sliding low scenario would back up that kind of evolution.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gooner
16 January 2014 22:16:22

All very quiet in here , at this point during the last 4 years it would be a hive of activity


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011618/gfsnh-0-144.png?18


Not much change from the 12z


eyes to the North looking for the Artic high

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nickl
16 January 2014 22:19:29

a slow process but we are finally heading into winter !!  events over the pole should help to push the sliders a bit further south. the slow trend without this has been westward corrections day by day.

Rob K
16 January 2014 22:33:11
GFS fires up a monster off Newfoundland, which will stir things up a bit.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
roger63
16 January 2014 22:33:16


a slow process but we are finally heading into winter !!  events over the pole should help to push the sliders a bit further south. the slow trend without this has been westward corrections day by day.


Originally Posted by: nickl 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0


Unfortunately the pendulum swings back in nfavour of the Atlantic on GFS 18h with HP pushed further east than earlier runs today.

Phil G
16 January 2014 22:38:23
Rob K
16 January 2014 22:40:06


And a giant 950mb system to the west!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
16 January 2014 22:40:30

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011618/gfsnh-0-300.png?18


No surprise it s very dfferent from 12z

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
16 January 2014 22:42:54
Azores and Russian high's shaking hands
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png 
Chunky Pea
16 January 2014 22:49:16

The 5 day mean between day 10 & day 15 on ECM en mean run continues to show nothing more than a chilly westerly based flow with both arms the mid-level jet running to the north and south of us. Basically, not much different to what we have now.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

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White Meadows
16 January 2014 23:38:34
The phantom easterly that has become chapter 2 of winter 13/14 is a tedious tale...
Gooner
16 January 2014 23:51:08

The ENS don't look that great , after the 6z it has been somewhat diisappointing IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
17 January 2014 06:22:08

The ENS don't look that great , after the 6z it has been somewhat diisappointing IMO

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Don't bother looking at the 00z ensembles then! This really is turning into one major let down with not enough energy getting into Europe and everything consequently staying too far north to allow the High to advance across the North Sea.

Edit: not even the ECM can offer any respite from the resurgent Atlantic on this run!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
kmoorman
17 January 2014 07:07:08
So, nothing to see here then 😞
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
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Charmhills
17 January 2014 07:50:13

So, nothing to see here then :-(

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Just more of the same......

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Sevendust
17 January 2014 07:58:07


So, nothing to see here then :-(

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Just more of the same......


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


If things carry on as they are we'll be seeing rainfall records broken down here

Andy Woodcock
17 January 2014 08:04:13
Even in the winters of the 90's and 00's we got the odd toppler but this winter is devoid of anything can could even bring a wintry shower.

This mornings runs are dire, no northerly, no easterly not even a north westerly, just low pressure to the NW of the Uk and a endless stream of systems moving east across the UK.

On this Friday last year much of England South of Lancashire was swept by a snowstorm that turned out to be the first of many.

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
sriram
17 January 2014 08:08:32

Even in the winters of the 90's and 00's we got the odd toppler but this winter is devoid of anything can could even bring a wintry shower.

This mornings runs are dire, no northerly, no easterly not even a north westerly, just low pressure to the NW of the Uk and a endless stream of systems moving east across the UK.

On this Friday last year much of England South of Lancashire was swept by a snowstorm that turned out to be the first of many.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 



Totally agree - even the infamous winters of 1990s and 2000s saw snow falling but melting quickly

Even 1989 saw snow I think

Thus winter is absolutely pathetic - temps not fallen below max of 7 or 8c

No frost of substance - min of -1c

Thus is by far the WORST winter if all time
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
KevBrads1
17 January 2014 08:10:31
I think we should look at the northern hemisphere charts.

The one postive if you are hope for cold and snow is the high pressure development within the Arctic circle. It is evident in both GFS and ECM.

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