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schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2014 23:58:36
4.5 mm today.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Dougie
16 January 2014 03:51:25

66.4 for the month so far. We have now has 18 consecutive days of measurable rainfall, and only had 1 dry day in the last 34.


Ha'way the lads
ARTzeman
16 January 2014 08:03:40

3,6mm Yesterday. 0.3mm Today. Total for Mid January 67.8mm.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
speckledjim
16 January 2014 10:28:08
35mm total
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
springsunshine
16 January 2014 16:29:34

Here in Wareham,Dorset we are up to 125mm of rain so far! Thats 5ins in old money with more to come


This is the perfect winter,mild and wet

ARTzeman
16 January 2014 17:20:22

Total now states 71.mm.  ...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
16 January 2014 18:52:16

Only one public model seems to have a reasonable handle on the convection at the moment and that's WRF. Here's what it shows for 2pm today up until midnight:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014011612/nmm-25-11-0.png?16-17


Around 10mm across much of the south.


24 hours later:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014011612/nmm-25-35-0.png?16-17


30-40mm widely (still starting from 2pm today, that is) with locally up to 70mm...!


 


If WRF verifies, the Met Office will have failed to predict a very severe weather event. This is strange, given that their precipitation outlook charts show similar precipitation development to WRF.


While I feel WRF's 50mm+ projections must depend on an unusually extreme bout of convection, I wouldn't rule it out entirely, and even without it there could well be totals across the south of around 20-40mm for today and tomorrow combined.


In theory, that's going to send those river levels rising again. Where's the Met Office warning...?


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2014 18:58:39
6mm of rain amount very quickly and more to come.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Rob K
16 January 2014 19:00:11

6mm of rain amount very quickly and more to come.

Originally Posted by: schmee 


This has caught me by surprise a bit. The radar has really come to life with some very heavy showers.


Edit: I see the WRF predicts upwards of 400mm of rain in one spot on the Ligurian coast over the next 72 hours!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
16 January 2014 19:03:28

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/14011812_1612.gif


NAE on the potential extreme rain event on Saturday


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
cowman
16 January 2014 19:32:35
Heavy rain for the third night on the run.
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 January 2014 22:47:53
13mm today.

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Stormchaser
16 January 2014 23:41:45


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/14011812_1612.gif


NAE on the potential extreme rain event on Saturday


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


This one needs watching closely I think.


If it's still there tomorrow, I imagine warnings will fly for the locations affected - which GFS and NAE indicate will be somewhere around Devon, while WRF models less of a stalled situation, with the boundary progressing east more rapidly.


There seems to be scope for 40-50mm in the space of 12 hours somewhere if it runs across Devon, although I suspect the areas of higher ground there play a role in that.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
17 January 2014 00:06:05

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120717.aspx?stationId=3309


A new record high for the river level at the Salisbury Bourne recording station.


Hardly surprising after over 140mm in the past 16 days and around 320mm in the past month (31 days).


 


That's the wettest monthly period I've recorded by some margin, beating what was about 250mm Nov-Dec 2009.


 


The Environment Agency has my local stretch of the Avon under a flood warning and talks of river levels rising in the next few days, yet the 3-day flood risk forecast states 'low risk'.


Go figure...


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 January 2014 06:59:32
15mm since midnight (event total 28mm).
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
idj20
17 January 2014 07:51:07

I've noticed in a recent accumulated rainfall data (past 12 hours) that North and West Kent had a very wet night with 10 mm to 30 mm of rain - yet here at this end I don't think we have even managed 1 mm (the ground is just about damp to the touch).
   Seems that the good ol' Harbour Rain Deflector is up and running again. This chart shows the effect very nicely: https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1/1535692_10152136946291306_520477031_n.png Wish it has the same effect on strong winds, though.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Sevendust
17 January 2014 08:05:14

As of now, the Winchester unofficial total is 158.2mm. Factor in the amount from 13th December this makes 321.3mm


This is biblical stuff which I haven't seen in any of my locations in my lifetime although I did live for many years in the drier part of Essex. 


A foot of rain in 36 days

idj20
17 January 2014 08:15:00


As of now, the Winchester unofficial total is 158.2mm. Factor in the amount from 13th December this makes 321.3mm


This is biblical stuff which I haven't seen in any of my locations in my lifetime although I did live for many years in the drier part of Essex. 


A foot of rain in 36 days


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



That is a serious amount of rain, that's going to cause some worrying flooding issues, isn't it? As if it isn't already doing so, something you really could do without.
  Seems that Sussex is experiencing it's own fair share of rain-related problems: http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-17/major-delays-at-haywards-heath-due-to-tunnel-closure-caused-by-flooding/
 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Stormchaser
17 January 2014 08:26:19

The showers really chained last night, with some areas seeing a lot more than others within a relatively small region.


For example, Boscombe Down, north of my home location, saw just 2mm betwen midnight and 6am, while Thorney Island, near Portsmouth, saw 10mm. Hurn Airport, south of my home location saw 6mm.


My home location saw 7mm and to be honest I find Hurn's reading a bit on the low side based on the radar sequence for overnight, which shows hardly any let-off in the moderate to heavy rainfall during the 00-06UTC period.


 


Also, another river level record has fallen in my local area, with Ringwood Riverside Terrace at 1.26m as of 4am, putting it 0.06m above the previous record. It's probably risen a bit further since then. The flooding across the plains must be staggering... and I imagine Moors Valley is more or less un-traversable.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
KevBrads1
17 January 2014 08:38:16
Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales

176.8 1948
169.0 1988
162.6 1995
160.3 1928
156.2 1939
149.8 1834
149.3 1984
147.1 1943
146.8 1877
144.9 2008
140.2 1872
136.6 1852
135.7 1906
134.3 1809
131.0 1994
129.0 1937
128.8 1804
128.6 1999
128.6 1806
128.4 1990
127.6 1986
125.3 1960
125.1 1930
124.4 1936
124.4 1913
124.2 1975
124.3 1791
122.8 1875
122.7 2004
122.7 1828
122.4 1919
120.6 1974
120.4 1998
120.2 1886

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
ARTzeman
17 January 2014 09:00:23

4.2mm Yesterday.. Total only reads 71.9mm.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
cultman1
17 January 2014 09:04:27
Unbelievable non stop heavy rain in the London area for pretty well 10 hours last night. Flooding of various seriousness everywhere in the South East especially in West Sussex. How much longer can this diabolical weather continue?
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 09:24:14

Unbelievable non stop heavy rain in the London area for pretty well 10 hours last night. Flooding of various seriousness everywhere in the South East especially in West Sussex. How much longer can this diabolical weather continue?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


for the foreseable by the looks of the latest models.


UK remains in the firing line of these atlantic troughs and the high to our east does not seem to have a chance.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
warrenb
17 January 2014 10:02:57
117mm so far this month, and it is chucking it down as I speak with another 11.6mm so far today.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 January 2014 10:32:32

Patchy drizzle here.

65mm for th emonth so far, Average here is about 75mm so it seems certain to be above that.
On average, January is the usually the last wet month here until June.
Any of the spring months can be wet, but are often enough rather dry so the average for each of the next four months is around 50mm 

By June convection events can give large totals in a short time.
Our wettest month is August (av. 100mm) for the same reason.


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