Good morning folks. Here is my report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 17th 2014.
All models show Low pressure to the NW of the UK> Winds will be slack over today and the weekend with sunny spells and showers today with coastal areas most at risk from these. Tonight and tomorrow sees a front over the SE later today move West and North across the UK becoming lodged South to north across SW England and Wales tomorrow with heavy rain at times here before the front moves bodily East tomorrow evening to return a mix of sunshine and showers again on Sunday, these chiefly in the SW. Monday then sees a brighter day and many places may see a dry day while the West continues the risk of some showers. Temperatures will remain close to average through the period.
GFS then shows that from Tuesday unsettled weather moves back in from the Atlantic with spells of rain and showers blowing through on the Westerly winds which will become quite brisk at times. Then through the latter stages of this morning's run the weather remains very unsettled and windy as deep Low pressure revolves around the UK continuing to feed areas of rain and showers with snow on Northern hills at times in temperatures near to or a little below average, especially in the North.
The GFS Ensembles show complete domination by Atlantic pressure systems through the output this morning with nearly all members offering only short drier spells between the rain bands with little or no sign of any dry and cold weather in sight.
UKMO today on Thursday shows Low pressure to the North of the Uk with a blustery Westerly wind carrying a trough East across the UK through the day bringing yet more rain. Temperatures would be close to average.
GEM today keeps Low pressure across the UK as it fills later in the week. Pressure remains higher on this model to the North and NE later feeding some colder air into the mix but away from the hills outbreaks of rain rather than snow would be likely.
NAVGEM keeps Low pressure feeding down over the UK from the NW later next week with further rain at times and perhaps some snow on Northern hills at times, especially towards the far NE.
ECM shows rising pressure from the SW for a time later next week reducing rainfall amounts in the South for a time while maintaining relatively mild and breezy Westerly winds. Later in the run and over next weekend deep Low pressure will slip back down from the North with outbreaks of rain and showers in strong winds for all to end the run.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows the trend for renewed Low pressure to become established just to the North of the UK with unstable Westerly winds and rain at times for all the most likely outcome for all from ECM Ensembles in 10 Days time.
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The Jet Stream shows little signs of significant change in it's trajectory and movements over the next few weeks as far as the UK is concerned. there will be occasional shifting of lifting the flow over the UK at times from a position to the South for much of the time feeding off the Atlantic.
In Summary the weather is continuing to look very Atlantic based over the next few weeks with rain at times from Low pressure areas drifting SE over the UK at first and then perhaps Low pressure maintaining a more Northerly position close to Scotland later next week. These synoptic changes will make little difference to us at the surface as we will all continue to see rain at times in temperatures close to average though some colder air could feed into Northern areas at times firstly from the East and later from the NW but overall there remains little or no chance of anything significantly wintry indicated from any output this morning.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset