Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 18th 2014 raised from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.

All models show the changeable pattern continuing. Through today a frontal system lies over northern and Western Britain with outbreaks of rain on a Southerly breeze. This front moves East later with a slack area of winds moving in tonight and tomorrow with a lot of dry weather over the Uk but with some shwers near western coasts. A similar day on Monday is followed by freshening Southerly winds as another trough moves slowly East with another spell of rain moves slowly East across the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming slow moving in the East before dying out. Then after midweek pressure rises strongly over the UK with a day or perhaps two of dry and bright weather with some frost and fog by night.

GFS then shows a quick return of changeable and windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure once more drives SE down across the UK with strong winds at times. In addition it could become rather colder with time with more of the precipitation falling as sleet or snow at times later in the period as winds turn towards the NE temporarily.

The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary set overall with rain at times across the UK with temperatures never more than a degree or so from the seasonal average in blustery conditions at times. The group show no real sign of significant cold conditions within this period with the operational run being on the colder side of the pack later.

UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure extending NE across Southern Britain with next Thursday dry and bright in the South. In the North a milder SW flow will bring cloud and rain in off the Atlantic later in the day.

GEM keeps a strong Azores High pressure area late in it's run and although each ridge that crosses the UK from it is relatively short-lived with rain at times, amounts of rain would be considerably less than many Southern areas have seen of late with temperatures alternating between milder spells and chillier spells as each ridge passes.

NAVGEM is not dissimilar to GEM as far as it goes with the ridge after midweek followed by a rain bearing troughs sinking SE across the UK by next weekend.

ECM shows a quick change back to unsettled and windy weather later next week and weekend as Low pressure follows the midweek ridge down over the UK with rain and strong winds followed by showers before a rinse and repeat pattern occurs again towards the end of the run. The last frame of the run shows Northern blocking setting up strongly giving our best chance yet of breaking out of the wet spell as cold Easterly winds look very likely to take hold.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still don't support the evolution of the operational indicating there is still a majority of mebers wanting to keep Low pressure to the NW with troughing lying SE down the UK or the North sea meaning further rain at times for the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained as it is for the time being maintained South of the UK having crossed the Atlantic before turning South to our West. The flow strengthens later and with this extra invigoration there could be more powerful depressions developing increasing the threat of wind to add to the continuing rain risk.

In Summary today the weather looks well agreed upon as we move towards the midweek period with changeable conditions  continuing with rain at times and some drier spells too especially after midweek when all models support a drier interlude as the Azores High ridges in. Later developments over the Arctic shown by some models push deep depressions SE across the UK later with further wet and windy weather for all. Then as and if these depressions are allowed to track South of the UK the Arctic High could push South and set up our best shot as yet of cold and possibly wintry conditions to start February. the problem being as of yet it is not well supported by either of the ensemble data I have access too from GFS or ECM.

ECM mean and day 9 and 10 very poor. Basically we are stuck in this rut of troughs phasing over the UK and no link up to arctic high. Disappointing UKMO. Perhaps yesterdays METO update was on the ball after all.

The Atlantic has got to give its permission before we get anything of an easterly reaching the UK - as GtW says, that all depends on location and strength of the jet, which shows no sign of relenting yet.

We won't know whether or not the MetO's update has been on the ball or not until we come to the period of time in question. We can't pass judgement on its accuracy until then IMO.

After the block to the E/NE fails to bring the cold here more than transiently, the Arctic High appears to say "out of the way - let me show you how its done".

At that point, the block to our E/NE either decides to work as a team or flees in fear.

You know, I can't recall seeing such strong height rises being shown at the 9-10 day range by multiple models; they usually underestimate that sort of thing, leaving us waiting until the 5-7 day range for upgrades, with further upgrades in the 2-3 day range.

That never guarantees the right positioning though, and whether there's changes to its intensty or not, the positioning of the Arctic High this time around is still up in the air. It should at least have the effect of driving troughing into Europe from the UK, but will it be able to then get a foothold here before the next upstream trough moves in...?

Before all that, next week looks a lot like the past 5 days, with a number of rainfall events but nothing big modelled... but we should bear in mind what happened yesterday in parts of the SE, which wasn't modelled until very short range.

good   morning looking  at the  models  seems  no let up  with  more  /flooding/rain deep in  to fantasy world  at  the   moment

I think it's just the Atlantic is running out of last year's energy.
Late winter/early spring - drier and breezy. Good stuff.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0

LP not dropping south to form  little  cut off low which was shown   on 0h.

06z more like the euros. lets see if we get another arctic high

less encouraging pressure rise over the pole. This could be a dud run. We are probably overdue one!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011806/gfsnh-0-168.png?6

setting up differently that is for sure

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011806/gfsnh-1-138.png?6

The -20 isotherm gets into Florida and other deep south states. Not good for the oranges!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

should produce snow showers in the north west and ireland

Not a patch on the 00z, but the theme is similar. But the blocking is not strong enough to last

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

End of month FI GFS northerly now looks to my eyes a bit of a downgrade from yesterday on this run? Still ridging north but not as good as yesterday:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=252&mode=0

Will change again no doubt on subsequent runs.

much flatter run which is always the danger. Hopefully the 12zs will re-amplify things a little

As always another version of a potential outcome

A look at the faxes for the short term

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

This mornings Tuesday 12h Fax showing occlusion to east stalling not quite as close as last nights 96h fax for the same time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120h&carte=2000 

Last nights chart for Wed 12h looked very promising -this mornings more progressive GFS 06h may well  be mirrored in changes to  the fax output later today.