Todays swing towards the Atlantic continues at 12h.

Not a puff of an easterly anywhere on any model or on the GEFS.

The only exception being ECM at 240h and that looks short lived

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

The diving LPs and northerlies  post 240 on GFS are not supported by ENS which are overwhelmingly Atlantic zonal.

Hope something  better turns up tomorrow! 

OK then.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH101-240.GIF?18-0

To take down a PV fuelled by such intense cold on the other side of the Atlantic, we need a very strong Arctic High and some serious upstream amplification.

Both of those are on offer tonight, but it feels like sitting down at a poker game as a rookie against an elite and expecting a straight flush to win you the game.

I suppose it's encouraging to see ECM managing to set up some serious blocking to our N and NE despite the Atlantic troughs managing to phase - that takes some doing and indicates a powerful driving force behind the development of that Arctic High - but for all we know it could end up pushing further east than ECM models.

Further west isn't out of the question either, of course...

In the meantime, there looks to be further troughing about, with a fair bit of rain possible between Tuesday and Saturday depending on how things unfold. I'm not talking anything exceptional though; 20mm or so generally.

It's a setup we've seen for so long that I can't help but glass over it and look further afield at the modelling of that Arctic High.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

If we could get that February anomaly to actually be parked over Scandinavia...

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday January 18th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a Low pressure area out to the NW of Britain. A frontal trough will swing East across Britain tonight carrying outbreaks of rain as it goes. This will be followed with very slack conditions for all areas by tomorrow and with clear skies later frost and fog is likely with sunny spells by day and coastal showers in the West and SW. After more slack pressure on Monday freshening winds on Tuesday will develop from the SW as a new frontal systems approaches from the West with rain spreading East through the day. The front stalls and weakens over the East on Wednesday as pressure rises across it reducing the rain to drizzle through the day. On Thursday the weather looks bright and chilly as a ridge of High pressure moves slowly down over the UK from the NW.

GFS tonight shows changeable conditions for the rest of it's run tonight as further Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK then South towards NW Europe pulling winds into the North for a time with wintry showers before Atlantic Westerlies return at the end with some more rain at times but some reasonable dry periods in the South.

The GFS Ensembles tonight have drifted back into a chillier mode in the South for the second half of the run. The weather will remain very changeable with rain at times but most members show some drier spells too with breezy conditions as well at times.

UKMO next Thursday shows a ridge moving away East and allowing another trough of Low pressure to spill back in off the Atlantic later next week with rain spreading East late in the day along with freshening SW winds.

GEM tonight shows less wet weather but still very changeable conditions later next week and into next weekend and beyond. The Azores High plays a more direct effect on the weather at least in the South with rain at times, heaviest in the NW while SE Britain sees longer drier periods between shorter rainier spells. Temperatures are shown to present no real problems over the period.

NAVGEM also shows another trough bringing rain late next week along with a blustery West then NW wind as the rain turns to showers ahead of drier weather under a ridge by next Sunday.

ECM tonight shows rainfall in the South becoming a much less troublesome feature late next week as the proximity of High pressure to the SW becomes more influential. However, troughs continue to flow down from the NW with at least some rainfall for all areas but with some drier spells too with temperatures a little below average overall and rather more than just a little below average with the chance of some wintry showers of sleet or snow in places by the end of the run.

The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Charts continue to show the most likely pattern in 10 days time of Low pressure to the NW and a very strong Azores High. Signs of pressure rises to the North remain quite limited from these charts and I would suggest the operational chart will be an exaggerated version of a potential cold outcome with plenty of members still showing an unstabe atlantic flow from the West or NW over britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows the flow following a similar course to that of recently with the main difference being an increase in it's strength later pushing it across Britain and then onto Europe.

In Summary tonight there is some sign of something perhaps less wet for Southern areas from later next week as the Azores High becomes more of a feature to the SW of the UK. With NW winds at times the chances of anything overly mild or cold remains quite small but the worst of the rain from the troughs continuing to afflict all areas at times will be more towards the NW or North with some decent drier spells in the South. While there is still a slim chance of a slightly colder slot of weather there is still no evidence within the time frame of anything major expected to affect the UK.

It's never ending it seems. When will it stop raining?

UKMO interestingly 'close' to the SE at 120 hours this morning. Otherwise its a continuation of Atlantic dominance. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011900/UW120-21.GIF?19-06

Zonal (in terms of these discussions)  usually refers to  West to East progression of weather systems and is usuallly associated with mild, wet weather.

Yes apart from that 'nothing to see, move on please' pretty much sums up output. Looks like February wants to continue January's weather, no doubt northern blocking will emerge in April

The ECM yeterday at 12z was a red herring (which on NW people got sucked into , LOL).  For me the greater interest was the next 5-6 days.  There has to be a chance (1/3??)  that the block could build a couple of hundred miles further west.  THAT is what interests me in the semi reliable time frame beyond day 5 it has to be said that the Atlantic and the jet seem likely to dominate once this stubborn block declines.

There must then be no more than a 1/10 or 1/20 chance of the block holding beyond 120 hours, so its odds on that the zonal train will blast through.  Nevertheless, worth watching the UKMO 96/120 this evening methinks.

GEFS Ptb 6 from 0z is the straw to clutch at this morning for East coast coldies This brings light snow to the east coast later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=126&mode=0&carte=0

Im highlightting it because I have an inkling there is a slightly higher possibility of it occurring than the models are suggesting, Atlantic still odds on though, for the record

Good morning. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs of the NWP for today Sunday January 19th 2014 lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show the coming week as maintaining changeable conditions throughout for all. Today sees Low pressure out to the NW with slack pressure gradients across the UK giving rise to a lot of dry and bright weather with coastal showers in the West and South and frost and fog patches tonight. A similar pattern is shown for tomorrow so similar conditions can be expected. On Tuesday there will be a new trough moving slowly East off the Atlantic bringing rain, heavy in places and a freshening SSW wind. Wednesday too will see the rain still affecting the East of the UK while the West sees brighter and drier conditions with scattered showers as winds swing NW and pressure rises. Thursday sees a quiet day over the UK with slack conditions again with dry and bright weather for many with coastal showers in the West and rather cloudier conditions from an old decaying front in the East. On Friday an early frost will be followed by a dry and bright day as a ridge is shown crossing the UK from the West before increasing SW winds and cloud move in from the West at the start of the weekend with rain and freshening winds into Northern and western areas in particular to start next weekend.

GFS follows this period with little overall change for the rest of the run with spells of rain and brighter weather with showers alternating over the period. Low pressure will remain rampant crossing the Atlantic to the North of the UK and down over Europe. Temperatures as a result will remain close to average for all.

The GFS Ensembles today show no chance of anything cold at all as the majority of members show a rampant Atlantic with a strong Westerly wind blowing over the Atlantic with rain and showers carried across all areas at times with drier and brighter spells too at times, these especially in the South due to many members showing a strong Azores Anticyclone ridging towards the UK at times.

UKMO today finds the end of it's run with a deep Low pressure up near Iceland sending a strong WSW flow into the UK following Friday's ridge with increasing cloud and rain spreading East over the UK next weekend.

GEM today maintains a UK based trough driven by further Low pressure feeding in off the Atlantic with further rain at times for all in temperatures near to or a fraction below average.

NAVGEM shows an Atlantic flow next weekend and start to the new week with rain at times as troughs move East off the Atlantic in a Westerly flow.

ECM today also shows an Atlantic based weather pattern next weekend and the first half of the new week with West or NW winds sending alternating spells of rain and showers across the UK in a blustery wind at times. Temperatures will remain close to average but a little below at times in any NW feed following the exit of cold fronts.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure biased to be positioned to the North and NW of Britain and a strong Azores High with a West or NW feed bringing further rain at times for most in temperatures unlikely to be problematic for anywhere in the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream continues to move across the Atlantic west of the UK and then turns South across Southern Europe via Spain. After this week it now looks the predicted strengthening will still take place steering it further East across the UK and then South over Europe as the High over NE Europe declines. It is then shown to move NE across the UK on a much more northerly track and on into Scandinavia by the end of the run this morning.

In Summary today the pattern remains very Atlantic based with little to suggest any shift towards anything wintry within the forecast period of the runs. All models show this week with a changeable pattern with alternating spells of rain mixed with drier and chillier spells with some night frost at times as Low pressure continues to move into the UK while weakening. High pressure will lie closer to the SW than for some time and this at long last will start to reduce and alleviate the surface flooding issues in the SW with time. In the second half of the run the weather will become rather windier with a longer Westerly fetch while maintaining the pattern of rain at times mixed with drier and brighter spells. Temperatures will remain close to average throughout with little or no chance of anything wintry.

Yes, I officially give up now on this winter and wasting my time looking at these bloody models. All we need now is Andy Woodcock to do his "thing"

That would very likely lead to a change, based on what happened when Andy did that several years back.

Before long you're going to ask a question you've asked before and give yourself away.
There must at some point be a balance between having to ask and working things out yourself, surely?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011900/gfsnh-10-324.png?0

this seems the only straw I can clutch

A big split in the ECM ensembles from Wednesday onwards...

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/

One half of members take the ECM operational route and the other half with something more like UKMO. The mean is sat in no man's land between the two groups so pointless looking at that. After a potentially interesting few days at the end of next week the Atlantic pushes through and then hopes turn to a strong Arctic high, strat warming or whatever else could work in our favour going into February.

As I said in my earlier post, theres a better chance than the models are suggesting of something cold hitting us quick.  Trouble is, many posters seem unduly obesessed with the ECM op. 

For all you lurkers out there, take note!