Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 18th 2014 raised from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.
All models show the changeable pattern continuing. Through today a frontal system lies over northern and Western Britain with outbreaks of rain on a Southerly breeze. This front moves East later with a slack area of winds moving in tonight and tomorrow with a lot of dry weather over the Uk but with some shwers near western coasts. A similar day on Monday is followed by freshening Southerly winds as another trough moves slowly East with another spell of rain moves slowly East across the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming slow moving in the East before dying out. Then after midweek pressure rises strongly over the UK with a day or perhaps two of dry and bright weather with some frost and fog by night.
GFS then shows a quick return of changeable and windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure once more drives SE down across the UK with strong winds at times. In addition it could become rather colder with time with more of the precipitation falling as sleet or snow at times later in the period as winds turn towards the NE temporarily.
The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary set overall with rain at times across the UK with temperatures never more than a degree or so from the seasonal average in blustery conditions at times. The group show no real sign of significant cold conditions within this period with the operational run being on the colder side of the pack later.
UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure extending NE across Southern Britain with next Thursday dry and bright in the South. In the North a milder SW flow will bring cloud and rain in off the Atlantic later in the day.
GEM keeps a strong Azores High pressure area late in it's run and although each ridge that crosses the UK from it is relatively short-lived with rain at times, amounts of rain would be considerably less than many Southern areas have seen of late with temperatures alternating between milder spells and chillier spells as each ridge passes.
NAVGEM is not dissimilar to GEM as far as it goes with the ridge after midweek followed by a rain bearing troughs sinking SE across the UK by next weekend.
ECM shows a quick change back to unsettled and windy weather later next week and weekend as Low pressure follows the midweek ridge down over the UK with rain and strong winds followed by showers before a rinse and repeat pattern occurs again towards the end of the run. The last frame of the run shows Northern blocking setting up strongly giving our best chance yet of breaking out of the wet spell as cold Easterly winds look very likely to take hold.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still don't support the evolution of the operational indicating there is still a majority of mebers wanting to keep Low pressure to the NW with troughing lying SE down the UK or the North sea meaning further rain at times for the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained as it is for the time being maintained South of the UK having crossed the Atlantic before turning South to our West. The flow strengthens later and with this extra invigoration there could be more powerful depressions developing increasing the threat of wind to add to the continuing rain risk.
In Summary today the weather looks well agreed upon as we move towards the midweek period with changeable conditions continuing with rain at times and some drier spells too especially after midweek when all models support a drier interlude as the Azores High ridges in. Later developments over the Arctic shown by some models push deep depressions SE across the UK later with further wet and windy weather for all. Then as and if these depressions are allowed to track South of the UK the Arctic High could push South and set up our best shot as yet of cold and possibly wintry conditions to start February. the problem being as of yet it is not well supported by either of the ensemble data I have access too from GFS or ECM.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset