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Gooner
19 January 2014 13:34:28




Looking poor for coldies just unsettled and often Atlantic dominated.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Not according to TS ................apparently


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


More like clutching at straws!


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Somehow I dont think the Beeb forecasts do that , do you .


Bid of an odd statement from you Duane

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
19 January 2014 13:40:36





Looking poor for coldies just unsettled and often Atlantic dominated.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Not according to TS ................apparently


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


More like clutching at straws!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Somehow I dont think the Beeb forecasts do that , do you .


Bid of an odd statement from you Duane


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


I don't even know who TS is nevermind what he said.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
19 January 2014 13:56:53






Looking poor for coldies just unsettled and often Atlantic dominated.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Not according to TS ................apparently


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


More like clutching at straws!


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Somehow I dont think the Beeb forecasts do that , do you .


Bid of an odd statement from you Duane


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I don't even know who TS is nevermind what he said.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Thomaz Knicker Sniffer.


UKMO clearly think a frigid easterly is a possibility later in the week.  Its an outside bet, but I would not be surprised if the models start to perform a volte face over the next 24 hours as regards the weather next Friday and Saturday.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin P
19 January 2014 14:04:55

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


A Leisurely Sunday Musing;  


 


A mish-mash of stuff to enjoy on a spring-like Sunday afternoon.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Stormchaser
19 January 2014 15:38:51

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gme/run/gme-1-72.png?19-12


GME 12z is close to UKMO's morning output and also attempts to humour us by drawing a hand and pointing finger using the -12*C isotherm 


It's fun (of a sort) to run through 48-72h and watch as cold airmasses advance towards the UK from both the east and the west simultaneously.


The modelling of the jet angle is just a little south of the ECM 00z version of events, and that's the sort of adjustment we need to see in the very short range in order to sway things in favour of colder evolutions from day 4 or 5.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
roger63
19 January 2014 16:05:33

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=0


its a race at 102h on gfs 12h to fill the col -ridging Azores HP or Scandi HP?


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0


By 120h Atlantic in first.Scandi hp weaker than 0h run.

Gooner
19 January 2014 16:06:34

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011912/UN96-21.GIF?19-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011912/UN96-7.GIF?19-17


Chilly theme from UKMO


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
19 January 2014 16:22:50

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011912/gfsnh-0-162.png?12


I am still puzzled how the AH can be dropped completely

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
19 January 2014 16:25:56

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021


Atlantic wins the struggle at 144h both on METO and GFS


 


 

Whether Idle
19 January 2014 16:34:56


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021


Atlantic wins the struggle at 144h both on METO and GFS


 


 


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Ah well, another straw is snatched away.  Have to say today has been a sparkling day, had to wait til late April for the likes of this last year...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
19 January 2014 16:38:22

UKMO has the Arctic high at 144

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
19 January 2014 16:52:15


UKMO has the Arctic high at 144


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011912/UN144-21.GIF?19-17


There it is

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
19 January 2014 17:03:39

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0&map=0&archive=0


GME is 100 miles further west than UKMO at t72

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2014 17:05:17
12z GFS has Both areas of Low Pressure and also Intervening Azores High Ridges, and the Waves they bring are tracking well through the mid Lattitudes so we get Spells of Wet rainy skies, a few NW flows that turn it cold with a few night frosts, leading to some breaks in the bands of rain and Strong winds that bring dry and sunny spells too.

Generally same winter Synoptics as we have already enduring so far this winter.

No nearby Greenland and or Arctic Highs, we get plenty of West and SW flows with a few NW' terly's.

ECMWF and UKMO are likely to back them up with their 12z runs, the GFS and them had the same pattern as explained above in their 00z run.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Whether Idle
19 January 2014 17:47:41

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=138&mode=0&carte=0


Ptb 11 from GEFS 12z suite, huge scatter at 120 by the way...


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
19 January 2014 18:12:26

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&archive=0


ECM very similar if not further west than GME at same time


FWIW NAVGEM @ around 100hourshttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=0&carte=0


 


ECM @ 96 says no


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
White Meadows
19 January 2014 18:34:30
Can we start a new thread for 'December 2010' please?
Just spent the last ten minutes looking for model discussion instead trawling through people's diary excerpts.
Saint Snow
19 January 2014 18:38:19

Had a couple of days away from model output, hoping to come back to see an upgrade.


Wrong; it's worse. The 12z GFS is a horror movie, and the 0z ECM just as bad.


The problem is the persistence of the Azores High, and its propensity to ridge eastwards into mainland Europe. This slams the door on the prospect of energy sliding SE'wards, and instead first pushes the blocking over Scandanavia back eastwards, then collapses it into Europe.


If reality turns out like this, we can write off well into February - and then the prospect of a long cold period is gone, and any snow lying is annoyingly short lived.


 


I'm giving up on this winter now. It certainly aint going to deliver what I yearn for.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
kmoorman
19 January 2014 18:44:42
The GFS ensemble has a couple of colder runs, but it's really not likely.
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Gusty
19 January 2014 18:54:05

Last glowing embers of hope from at least a cold continental feed on to the east Kent coast for a few hours at circa 108-120 hours appear to have been extinguished tonight.


Desperate times if looking for a cold waft from the east for 12-24hours is the best that is on offer.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



David M Porter
19 January 2014 19:07:48

ECM 12z 240hr chart doesn't look great on the face of it, but what I am keeping an eye on is the change of colours over the east of Canada and how they change from dark purples to blues. Could this be an indication that maybe, just maybe, the vortex may start to weaken slightly as we near the end of January? Who knows.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Saint Snow
19 January 2014 19:09:49

Could this be an indication that maybe, just maybe, the vortex may start to weaken slightly as we near the end of January?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


The phrase 'too little, too late' comes to mind...  


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
colin46
19 January 2014 19:20:09


Could this be an indication that maybe, just maybe, the vortex may start to weaken slightly as we near the end of January?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


The phrase 'too little, too late' comes to mind...  


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Quantum
19 January 2014 19:29:55


ECM 12z 240hr chart doesn't look great on the face of it, but what I am keeping an eye on is the change of colours over the east of Canada and how they change from dark purples to blues. Could this be an indication that maybe, just maybe, the vortex may start to weaken slightly as we near the end of January? Who knows.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I struggle to find hope in this given the ECM charts a few days ago which were excellent wrg to the 500mb pattern. We had substantial WAA in that part of the world, and yellows rather than pale blues.


The wind just refuses to come from the south in that part of the world 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
19 January 2014 19:32:00


Last glowing embers of hope from at least a cold continental feed on to the east Kent coast for a few hours at circa 108-120 hours appear to have been extinguished tonight.


Desperate times if looking for a cold waft from the east for 12-24hours is the best that is on offer.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yeah, this morning's glimmer looks like a dead duck. 


Check out the JMA at 192. 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1


 


Likely? No! But nor are any other of the ops.  It all looks very "up in the air to me" but the safe bet is clearly zonal

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
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