Yes I was mulling that fact over myself the other night. I didn't feel daytime temps had been overly mild, more a little above average, however, night time temps have been very mild. Which I concluded must be a driving factor for the Hugh CET returns. I too live in somewhat of a frost hollow and have had very few mornings of car scraping. Even those mornings which have had frost have seen a generally light affair, with most of it gone by 8am. The only frost which lasted throughout the day was in November[sn_shock]

Anyway I still hold out hope for something more wintry in the next few days/week. Although snow is currently less likely down here, one thing is for sure, it will feel bitter in the rain with 850 temps of circa -5c progged (although I know some runs and models are showing colder than this)......

---

At the end of High Res GFS Op is thankfully on the mild edge of the ensemble set! Looks like there will be a few colder runs in FI with perhaps just a little more of an easterly influence than was shown on the 12z.

Edit- only the four with anything of an easterly by T240 but plenty of options for extending the cool or cold conditions.

---

Figures for GEFS 12h % Ens with easterly flow

168h wed 70%  

192h thu 40%

240h sat 35%

On Gfs it s a cold snap of two days.   

Preturbations 6,7 and 19 give prolonged cold, but 6 gives a dream set up with Scandi High, Greeny High and pressure low to the SW:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0 

Edit - low pressure to the SW develops later in run.

---

Yep nothing sticking around do u think going to snow .Looking like might not get any snow This winter in south uk might get some middle feb if lucky

Please refrain from making this type of trolling post, and certainly one that has no model output discussion in it.

---

Closing >>>

---

Good morning. Here is today's report for the output issued from the NWP for Thursday and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a very unsettled period to come overall areas for the next week. Through the period there will be a couple of active frontal systems affecting much of the UK, one tomorrow and another on Sunday when the parent depression will continue to affect the UK weather all the way into the middle of next week as it drifts slowly SE across the UK to lie close to or to the South of the UK by midweek. throughout the period we are all going to see much more rainfall, heavy and disruptive in places, especially in those areas already affected by flooding issues. Some brief drier interludes  are possible at times but nowhere are these expected to last for long. Winds will also be strong at times especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts but it may become colder briefly towards the middle of next week as the low slips to the South of the UK bringing an injection of cold Easterlies briefly;

GFS then sees out next week with yet another depression moving SE over the UK with further rain and strong winds with overall not much in the way of a sustained improvement through the rest of the run with average temperatures returning with any snowfall restricted to northern hills.

The GFS Ensembles do show a mean value suggesting a rather cold spell of weather but nothing desperately so with snowfall remaining quite elusive away from the hills. Rainfall in general is shown to be quite well spread about over the period as unsettled weather persists though amounts do trend downwards gradually with time.

UKMO remains very troubling with regard to heavy rainfall as Low pressure having arrived at the start of the week still remains well in control close to Southern Britain next Wednesday with heavy showers and longer spells of rain still likely over many areas, worst in the South. Somewhat colder conditions over the North could give rise to some wintry weather over the hills.

GEM is a little more optimistic as we move towards the end of next week with Low pressure taking rain and sleet away from the South midweek before a ridge brings a drier interlude with some sunshine and frost at night though further weaker fronts moving SE will keep rain a feature at times, this time more especially in the North.

NAVGEM also shows a welcome ridge to bring an interlude to the wet weather late next week but by the end of the run stronger and milder SW winds have already infiltrated their way back into the NW with some rain.

ECM today shows the end of next week as unsettled as ever with the early week Low pressure moving away soon after midweek with rain and sleet clearing away ahead of renewed Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain and showers likely for all areas again long before the weekend. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a colder snap midweek.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no overall change to those of late and maintain the pattern that has been shown now for more than a week. The net result is that the UK lies under or on the western flank of a broad trough created by Low pressure to the NW and sliding troughs down across the UK maintaining chilly and sometimes wet weather interspersed with sunshine and showers, some wintry.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream is currently undergoing a strengthening as it exits the states and this will remain the case for  more than a week as it powers across the Atlantic towards the UK before turning South across us and away over Southern Europe. It's not until the less reliable time lapse before it is shown to weaken. mostly due to natural variability in member solutions at that range.

In Summary this morning the weather looks very unsettled and often windy and wet. This of course is not what many want to here but unfortunately it is what is shown throughout the output with just a brief window of drier weather late next week from some of the less reliable output. For those looking for cold the window of opportunity has closed even more this morning with just a day or two at most near the middle of next week the time when a little wintry weather could be apparent, mostly in the North. However, with regard to importance this remains a miniscule factor in what by far the most newsworthy factors of this morning's output is the continuing probability of troubling rainfalls, likely to make the headlines again next week rather than snowfall.

---

this is becoming extreremly pathetic for winter fans

I admire your tenacity for writing the basically the same model output since dec without a change !

lots of but no or

I find it impossible to believe that we had no proper frosts all winter with no temps less than -1c, and not 1 flake of snow or not even 1 flake of sleet !

This is by far the worst winter of all time - definitely in the top 3

---