Good morning folks. Here is the report from how I see things developing over the coming few weeks using the data from the midnight outputs from the NWP and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models follow a similar pattern of events through this week and the weekend. The UK lies in slack pressure currently with light winds, bright weather with clear or sunny intervals and frost and fog a feature over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow sees a new frontal system move slowly into the West and cross over to the East by Wednesday. Rain will move East slowly tomorrow and Wednesday before clearing in the West to showers and a cool NW breeze. All areas then see NW winds and scattered showers on Thursday before a ridge of High pressure crosses East late in the day and overnight with the return of frost and patchy fog. On Friday the ridge gives way slowly to a new frontal system with increasing SW winds and rain moving down from the NW through the day. The weekend is then shown by all models to remain changeable with further showers and some drier and brighter weather, this most likely on Sunday.
GFS then shows deteriorating conditions next week as a deep Low slips SE across the UK with gale force winds and heavy rain with colder weather sinking down behind to reach Southern areas by midweek. Some snowfall is possible on high ground for a time almost anywhere for a time on the exit SE of the Low and in the NE winds. Towards the end of the run the weather reverts to a chilly NW air mass type with further Low pressure areas sliding SE down over the UK or just to the NE with further rain and showers with sleet or snow on the hills at times in rather windy conditions.
The GFS Ensembles show very ordinary levels of temperature through the period with plenty of rain events still scattered about through the run from most members as the Atlantic continues to remain the source of our weather. The operational was one of the colder options later in the run but there is some other rather chillier options shown too but never desperately cold.
UKMO closes it's run next Sunday with a ridge of High pressure moving across from the West clearing away the early wintry showers from the NE to a dry and bright if rather chilly day with increasing cloud from the NW late in the day as the next system approaches.
GEM shows a much stronger NW flow next Sunday with plenty of showers, wintry in places under a strong NW wind. Towards the end of the run the weather remains often unsettled and windy with further rain and showers turning to snow in places as it, like GFS shows a brief NE flow across the UK.
NAVGEM shows Atlantic systems based to the North of the UK continuing to influence the UK weather with further fronts crossing West to East over the UK with rain and showers at times in brisk winds and temperatures close to average.
ECM today has Low pressure following next Sunday's ridge crossing ESE to the NE of Scotland and dragging blustery NW winds with rain followed by showers affecting the UK early next week with snow on hills in the North. This then sets the tome and pattern for further unsettled conditions at the end of the run as a Westerly flow continues to bring further unsettled weather later.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show it's ongoing theme of the most likely pattern in 10 days time. The favoured option looks to be a trough down the North Sea attached to low pressure to the NW. High pressure lies to the SW and NE with the UK likely to be just on the western fringe of the north sea trough indicative of West or NW winds and rain at times and some periods of cooler and showery weather with some wintry showers possible on the hills in temperatures generally near or just below average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's current pattern for some time yet before a strengthening of the flow spawns some deeper Low pressure areas next week. The overall position remains uncertain then with a mix of options taking it more NE towards Scandinavia while others maintain the flow much like it's current position.
In Summary very changeable weather remains the most likely pattern for the weather over the UK in the next 10-14 days. It looks very likely that Low pressure areas will continue to feed down from the NW over the period with further rain and showers at times. There will be colder air across the other side of the North Sea with fronts becoming slow moving at times close to the East coast and any shift of these further West could bring Eastern areas at risk of some snow at times. In general though snow is more likely on polar maritime incursions from the NW between weather systems. While it is unlikely that disruptive rainfall is likely over the period in view that ground water levels are at saturation point any rain that falls over the period will continue to be unwelcome and there will certainly be some wet weather at times.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset