theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 10:17:22

might start to see some streamers and lake effect for eastern parts from wednesday

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 10:26:59

potential for a major snow event next friday as the atlantic breaks through. Angle of attack will be crucial though

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 10:28:56

Extraordinary chart


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-174.png?6


Years ago this place would be in meltdown!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
24 January 2014 10:29:59

Yes things are starting to looking interesting still I fear cold rain at least at first but if we should bring in proper cold air than snow it shall be for a fair few should it come to pass later in the week.


 

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gooner
24 January 2014 10:32:12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0617.png


These look like being wrong

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
24 January 2014 10:33:51

Certainly a cold week in the offing

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


warrenb
24 January 2014 10:37:43
Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.
Tonbridge 45m 
The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 10:38:29

hints of the elusive greeny high. Could be on the cusp of a major cold spell. Please dont tell the Daily Express!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 10:40:06

NAVGEM looks ok


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014012406/navgem-0-132.png?24-11

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
24 January 2014 10:43:21

Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Good, Im off to Arsenal tonight, I was ready for a soaking

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
24 January 2014 10:45:13
Going by the ensembles (with a definite upward trend at the end) this *could* be our best shot at cold until at least mid Feb.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
24 January 2014 10:59:19

Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Looks fairly well as modelled to me (at least going by Euro4). The first front was predicted to fragment and slide SE. The second one should arrive this evening and sweep across the country, weakening as it does so, clearing the E coast by about 6am.


 


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


 


 


Gooner - the output shows no rain in London until almost midnight.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ITSY
24 January 2014 11:03:10

With the ECM and its ens looking very good, UKMO looking good and with GEM fantastic - with the support of NAVGEM - (and with some exciting looking GEFS synoptics), this is shaping up to be another fascinating period of model watching. Worth noting that both GFS and ECM bring that slider low down through the British Isles at 160 odd, bringing with it (if we have favourable conditions), the potential for a possible snow event - if the cold is in place beforehand. Just need that block to slowly continue to edge further westward if we want the spell or snap to last longer than a few days - but what a refreshing change the current output is to what we have become accustomed to over recent months. 

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
24 January 2014 11:19:39
This is getting quite difficult.

This post should go when I want it to go.

C'mon this time.

Much to my belief and Conscience this mornings UKMO and ECMWF and GFS 00z Output backs up the Situation for -5 at t850, -30 or -35 Temps Upper 500hPa and 124 or 120 level of I can't say what that I see in the Isolines masses!.

A Winter that has been very Wet and windy with numerous episodes of flooding, looks set to change in to bring the Second half last 6 days of Jan. 2014 and much of Feb and March still to come - at least the Models bring in West NW and also East and NE winds by Sunday 26th to throughout next 11 or 12 days.

Next Week I really would be happy if the Snow fell properly and it frozen and not melt half of it, as if it did happen I know the Slush freezing can be troublesome walking on foot.

Post it.
Please!
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Weathermac
24 January 2014 11:27:59


Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Good, Im off to Arsenal tonight, I was ready for a soaking


Originally Posted by: warrenb 

You will get a pasting tonight from the Sky Blues !

Gooner
24 January 2014 11:31:36



Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


Good, Im off to Arsenal tonight, I was ready for a soaking


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

You will get a pasting tonight from the Sky Blues !


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Wenger is still angry about losing to Blackburn, I think he will put out a decent side


 


whoops wromgh thread


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
24 January 2014 11:34:47
FWIW the 0z ECM snow map to 240 shows > 6cm having fallen across the vast majority of the UK. The only areas not forecast to see any snow are a few miles around the far SW of Wales and a small bit of Cornwall.

The snow depth chart meanwhile shows snow across 98% or so of the UK. The only areas not to have lying snow are those mentioned above, plus Thanet. Even at 144 the majority of the UK is shown as having a cover, with Kent, a bit of Essex, the SW of England (except Dartmoor) and SW Wales remaining snow-free.

In other words - much the same as last night's 12z output. It's looking pretty exciting!
Leysdown, north Kent
JACKO4EVER
24 January 2014 11:37:27




Well the block seems stronger already, as the rain is really struggling to get east at the moment. Looks like London may stay dry today.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Good, Im off to Arsenal tonight, I was ready for a soaking


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

You will get a pasting tonight from the Sky Blues !


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Wenger is still angry about losing to Blackburn, I think he will put out a decent side


 


whoops wromgh thread


 


 


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


PLEASE this is Model Output thread. ha ha


I thought you all watched Forest anyways LOL


Interesting developments last night and even a further slight upgrade this morning if its cold your after. Quite a few could see their first snows of winter if output is to be believed, but until MetO update then I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. Remember, they are privvy to information we are not. 

Retron
24 January 2014 11:39:36
The 0z ECM control run is a thing of interest today - it shows low after low coming in from the west and disrupting, with easterlies and northerlies aplenty. Marginal throughout, of course... but if the outlook stays as it is *some* places are going to get plastered (while others just get wet!)
Leysdown, north Kent
NickR
  • NickR
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2014 12:31:36

FWIW the 0z ECM snow map to 240 shows > 6cm having fallen across the vast majority of the UK. The only areas not forecast to see any snow are a few miles around the far SW of Wales and a small bit of Cornwall.

The snow depth chart meanwhile shows snow across 98% or so of the UK. The only areas not to have lying snow are those mentioned above, plus Thanet. Even at 144 the majority of the UK is shown as having a cover, with Kent, a bit of Essex, the SW of England (except Dartmoor) and SW Wales remaining snow-free.

In other words - much the same as last night's 12z output. It's looking pretty exciting!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Have you got a link to that Darren?

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Retron
24 January 2014 12:36:02


Have you got a link to that Darren?


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Not to that exact chart (as it's on Accuweather Pro), but luckily someone on NW has posted the Weatherbell equivalent:


http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1038-0-68700600-1390566286.png


It's very similar to the Accuweather chart, although Accuweather doesn't state whether its scale is cm or inches! (I'd assumed cm).

Leysdown, north Kent
Andy Woodcock
24 January 2014 12:36:33

Extraordinary chart


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012406/gfsnh-0-174.png?6


Years ago this place would be in meltdown!


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Indeed, it's a classic widespread snow chart that and very similar to 25th January 2013 or even 3rd February 1996, either way it's a good one but too far out at the moment and the detail will change a lot

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Ally Pally Snowman
24 January 2014 12:38:09

Going by the ensembles (with a definite upward trend at the end) this *could* be our best shot at cold until at least mid Feb.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Below average now until the 8th Feb. Control looks tasty.



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
24 January 2014 12:39:32

The 0z ECM control run is a thing of interest today - it shows low after low coming in from the west and disrupting, with easterlies and northerlies aplenty. Marginal throughout, of course... but if the outlook stays as it is *some* places are going to get plastered (while others just get wet!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


A fascinating period of weather coming up Darren. Although marginal at face value I am particularly encouraged by the fact that there should be a plenty of drier continental air to tap into at times. The threshold for snowfall remains somewhat relaxed in such synoptic setups for us Kent folk..closest to the source.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Ally Pally Snowman
24 January 2014 12:40:17


Have you got a link to that Darren?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Not to that exact chart (as it's on Accuweather Pro), but luckily someone on NW has posted the Weatherbell equivalent:


http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1038-0-68700600-1390566286.png


It's very similar to the Accuweather chart, although Accuweather doesn't state whether its scale is cm or inches! (I'd assumed cm).

Originally Posted by: NickR 




I'm pretty sure that's inches as its a American site. Which would be incredible.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads