Remove ads from site

Rob K
24 January 2014 12:40:35



Have you got a link to that Darren?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Not to that exact chart (as it's on Accuweather Pro), but luckily someone on NW has posted the Weatherbell equivalent:


http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1038-0-68700600-1390566286.png


It's very similar to the Accuweather chart, although Accuweather doesn't state whether its scale is cm or inches! (I'd assumed cm).


Originally Posted by: NickR 


12 inches here? If that happens I'll give you the money meself...



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
soperman
24 January 2014 12:41:51



Have you got a link to that Darren?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Not to that exact chart (as it's on Accuweather Pro), but luckily someone on NW has posted the Weatherbell equivalent:


http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1038-0-68700600-1390566286.png


It's very similar to the Accuweather chart, although Accuweather doesn't state whether its scale is cm or inches! (I'd assumed cm).


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Hi Retron


Sorry, don't understand that chart.  Is that the cumulative snowfall up to 3rd Feb or is it the snowfall of 3rd Feb.  I assume it's the former?


With this sort of deterministic modelling you would expect the Meto mid range update to improve when released soon, although their human input on the data may be quite different.  I think the risk is high enough for them to at least mention the possibility of snow, if only if they state on higher ground generally.


Wait and see game.

Retron
24 January 2014 12:48:45


Sorry, don't understand that chart.  Is that the cumulative snowfall up to 3rd Feb or is it the snowfall of 3rd Feb.  I assume it's the former?


Originally Posted by: soperman 


Having dug a bit more, it looks like the WXBell chart linked to above is the same as the "Total Snowfall to Forecast Hour (Based on Snow:Water Ratio of 10:1)" chart on Accuweather. The "Snow Depth" chart (at 240) shows easten Kent as snow-free, whereas the WXBell chart shows something over eastern Kent - therefore it must be total snow, rather than lying snow.


Bear in mind the operational was a stonking outlier in terms of precipitation towards the end of the run! To 144 (where it fits in nicely with the median) the snow depth chart shows depths between 0.1 and 1 (cm or inch!) for most of England, with higher depths from Manchester northwards.


In short: the ECM was a ridiculously snowy outlier today. But you could probably guess that from looking at the chart!


Leysdown, north Kent
GlenH
24 January 2014 12:50:05

It is labled 'snow depth', so I don't think it's snow fall for that day or cumulative snow fall, but depth on the ground.


If we get the 1ft + that it's showing here I'll be amazed though. 

Quantum
24 January 2014 12:52:02

Looks like our weather is going to be quite 'icelandic' over the next week or so; cyclonic, well to the north of the jet stream, some wintry precipatation about but not despearately cold. Polar maritime airmasses to dominate.  


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
24 January 2014 12:53:49


It is labled 'snow depth', so I don't think it's snow fall for that day or cumulative snow fall, but depth on the ground.


If we get the 1ft + that it's showing here I'll be amazed though. 


Originally Posted by: GlenH 


It shows the cumulative total of precipitation that it thinks will be snow over the next 240 hours (10 days), then works out a total depth using a 10:1 ratio. In such marginal conditions you certainly wouldn't get a 10:1 ratio as any snow would be wet. plus it would melt rapidly.


 


So don't take that chart at face value, but do take it as showing that the ECM is a rather snowy run for most.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
24 January 2014 13:01:08

The GEM run is positivly frigid and brings a 2009 esque snow fest for most. Unlikely to verify though, I have noticed the GEM in particular does love its cold and snowy runs.


 


Also can we appluad the NAVGEM for getting the pattern right (along with the JMA) where all the others seemed to fail? Is there any chance that it could have been because the NAVGEM takes sea ice into account, which would lower the intensity of american cyclones?  


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
24 January 2014 13:32:42


The GEM run is positivly frigid and brings a 2009 esque snow fest for most. Unlikely to verify though, I have noticed the GEM in particular does love its cold and snowy runs.


 


Also can we appluad the NAVGEM for getting the pattern right (along with the JMA) where all the others seemed to fail? Is there any chance that it could have been because the NAVGEM takes sea ice into account, which would lower the intensity of american cyclones?  


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No

David M Porter
24 January 2014 13:54:23




Have you got a link to that Darren?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not to that exact chart (as it's on Accuweather Pro), but luckily someone on NW has posted the Weatherbell equivalent:


http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1038-0-68700600-1390566286.png


It's very similar to the Accuweather chart, although Accuweather doesn't state whether its scale is cm or inches! (I'd assumed cm).


Originally Posted by: Retron 


12 inches here? If that happens I'll give you the money meself...



Originally Posted by: NickR 



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
24 January 2014 13:54:58


Looks like our weather is going to be quite 'icelandic' over the next week or so; cyclonic, well to the north of the jet stream, some wintry precipatation about but not despearately cold. Polar maritime airmasses to dominate.  


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Sounds about right, rain alternating with cold rain, and some wet snow on highest ground.
Some dry days between


Gooner
24 January 2014 14:08:28



The GEM run is positivly frigid and brings a 2009 esque snow fest for most. Unlikely to verify though, I have noticed the GEM in particular does love its cold and snowy runs.


 


Also can we appluad the NAVGEM for getting the pattern right (along with the JMA) where all the others seemed to fail? Is there any chance that it could have been because the NAVGEM takes sea ice into account, which would lower the intensity of american cyclones?  


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


No


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


As simple as that eh Dave


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
24 January 2014 14:33:19
The 850s on the GEM run are actually not as cold as I was expecting, with the 0C isotherm hovering off the south coast. Still wouldn't kick it out of bed though!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin P
24 January 2014 15:42:16

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


JMA Friday + Snow Risk Increasing Next Week:


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


ECM and GEM look most wintry to me today.


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
24 January 2014 15:44:37

"....(a) return to a more W’ly regime will be awkward and unreliable given many eps members show upper patterns with cut off vortices over the UK. This would steer low pressure systems S and allow for renewed cold conditions from the east at times. We are happy... (he refers to UKMO forecast assessment, as it stands today) .... with the overall unsettled signal but with lots of variation in the members, confidence in details will be extremely low."


 


With this in mind - and ahead of whatever the 12z suites offer - can we please exercise caution in misrepresenting the UKMO view re anything 'mild'. They are not saying anything of the sort. Cheers...


From Fergie ( Ian ) , basically quoting what the chief at Exeter has said on the current situation


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
24 January 2014 16:06:02

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png


Isobars look slacker than on the 6z, minor detail as the set up is still pretty similar


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
24 January 2014 16:20:12
It's very unusual indeed to see an Atlantic warm sector that's this cold!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012412/gfs-1-162.png?12 
Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
24 January 2014 16:21:29
Looks like a better angle of attack here, slanted more to the SE

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1622.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin P
24 January 2014 16:28:25

It's very unusual indeed to see an Atlantic warm sector that's this cold!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012412/gfs-1-162.png?12


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I think someone's going to have some funny and games later next week - But who?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
24 January 2014 16:30:35

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1683.png


yep someone could get a good dumping.....................so to speak


Whats the betting the block holds strong and the ppn slides on past


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
24 January 2014 16:32:38
Still a chilly and unsettled looking outlook. It looks like the kind of setup where inland Aberdeenshire could do rather nicely in terms of snowfall. I'd still think for most the form horse would be cold and wet rather than cold and white but (if this does not sound to contradictory) I'd not be surprised to see snow crop up in quite a few places at one time or another.

I think the Icelandic comparison is probably quite an accurate way of summarising the outlook. Chilly but most of the snow will probably be confined to high ground inland.

This assessment is based on the GFS output and there are other possibly colder and statistically more reliable options out there.

The Beast from the East
24 January 2014 16:44:02

GEM potentially very snowy but gone is the clean easterly


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012412/gemnh-0-168.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
24 January 2014 16:47:23
So the 12Z GFS it is Varying from A Colder Setup By Deep UK Low Pressure 26th to the 29th, and Again late on the 30th, but more importantly the t192 Friday into Saturday 31 Jan.,to Feb. 01 2014.

Sunday Windy with Band of Heavy rain West SW winds, Veering Westerly to NW p.m with lots of Scattered Heavy Squally Wintry Showers This affects us, even a.m. To Midday Monday Very Cold with the same, p.m., Less cold in South and SW UK as Next area of Cut off Low dives ESE and Tuesday again right through to Wednesday we see Two Low's NW and West NW UK and Southern Mid UK, all areas Cold with plenty of Heavy rain and sleet hail and Snow Showers, Cyclonic winds- SW or NW or SE and some See NE flow, the Thursday a Quite Cold dry weather with frost early and late.

By Friday and Saturday UK see Some rain with band of heavy Snow and sleet, Cold NW winds move SE wards.

To NE Atlantic Arctic High linked with North to E NE Central Europe High, and NE East Central Greenland has Blocking High.

West Central N Atlantic High large Cold Ridges extend towards into S Central Greenland, Blocked Low Pressure Areas Newfoundland and E SE Canada at times Head SE undercut Greenland High, and Deepen linked Low Monday and Tuesday across UK, very cold Airmass advected from Newfoundland and SE Greenland Which is pushed SE- with Another Cold Plunge to UK from this late on 30th, and on 31 and 1st Feb. that is potentially to extend the Cold Spell.

Those Cold Low's affect South Central Europe during the Same period, with many areas cold with spells of Sleet or Snow this helps keep the Siberian and Scandy Arctic High Stick Around so as well Greenland at 1035 - 1045 hPa.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Jonesy
24 January 2014 16:48:13


Without taking this off topic, whenever I click links on the TWO Forum 90% time it takes me to the page and I have to back click to get back to Two rather than it open in a seperate window.


Anyone else have this or is there something I can do with my browser to stop it?


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Rob K
24 January 2014 16:51:44



Without taking this off topic, whenever I click links on the TWO Forum 90% time it takes me to the page and I have to back click to get back to Two rather than it open in a seperate window.


Anyone else have this or is there something I can do with my browser to stop it?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Assuming you are on a PC/Mac, hold the shift key as you click!


 


 


Back on the models, and the GFS run is pretty blocked throughout, ending with decent heights over Greenland and a much quieter Atlantic.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads