No real change this evening on either G(E)FS or ECM - as with the past day or two's output we're seeing trough disruption galore and a mess of rain, sleet and snow in the forecast.

The only thing of note really is the MetO run, which shows a truly frigid easterly setting up at 144. Whether that's a trendsetter or just an outlier remains to be seen!

---

Don't get so hung up on specifics, which are even harder to pin down for the middle of next week than they would usually be. You're going to see a load of chopping and changing, will it or won't it type stuff going on right up to T+12 in this sort of situation.

Besides, as per Ian F's explainatory notes earlier, the MetO aren't expecting a mild outlook - far from it, if you read them!

The trend is the same as it has been for a few runs now (the latest 12z MetO excepted). Repeated trough disruption near or over the UK, exact position yet to be decided. Depending on where the centre of the lows tracks some areas will see snow (and a fair bit of it), some will see rain - some may not see much of anything! The general pattern though is most encouraging for cold fans as it's the sort of self-perpetuating thing that can go on for a week or more.

---

Fair enough.

the JMA is exceptional once again tonight🤤


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1 

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

Wet and miserable if this should verify.

---

Ouch that really is crap

---

Seems to me it's going to be wet and miserable for the foreseeable future with no real change in the unsettled weather.   However, as it's turned from mild and unsettled and then to average and unsettled, so it does now look like becoming cool, or maybe even cold, and unsettled.   Meaning that whatever any particular model or run shows, there is always the risk of some transient snow even to low level in the south, as we move into Feb.

I don't see any settled weather on the horizon - cold or warm.  And that's what's really not good

---

ECM seems to me, bizarre.

At 144hrs, the Atlantic low is barely developed.

At 168hrs, there has been explosive cyclonic development to 965mb

At 192hrs, the low is over Wales, still 965mb

At 216hrs, the low is sinking southwards at 985mb

At 240hrs , the low has filled to 1000mb

So in a space of 96hrs, it goes from virtually nothing to nothing with explosive development and weakening in between. Not including the rapid westward movement, the stall and then the quickening southward plunge.

Very odd!

---

Yes, its not to be taken seriously.  The JMA fits with this mornings ECM ensembles  so, at the risk of being optimistic, this perhaps provides the best forward guidance.  Clearly anything beyond 96 is FI at present.

---

An edited version of All Along the Model Watch tower

"No reason to get excited,"
The ECM, it kindly spoke
"There are many here among us
Who feel that the GFS is but a joke
But you and I, we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late"

All along the model watchtower 

TWOers kept the view
While all the outputs came and went
Ensembles, too

Outside in the cold distance
A distant beast did growl
Two slider lows were approaching
And the wind began to howl

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJV81mdj1ic

 

---