Charts look excellent to me, troughs seem to dive further and further south with every run. This can only mean one thing....

Massive downgrade due tommorow!

The Atlantic does look very weak, though.

A big chance for a shift on the way.imo.

Fronts are forecast to head West and a long way South, for the first time this winter.

Can't be bad.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

looks cold to me by middle of next week have u checked out min and max temps 0c by day in mid lands thurs and snow down to low level in south east by sat night . this can be seen on almost all models now.

Hi everyone. Here is my interpretation of the midday outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 24th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show an occluding front slowly crossing East overnight with a spell of rain for all followed by drier but murky weather later in the night. Tomorrow will see a freshening Westerly flow with showers in the NW at first then areas further SE for a time late in the day Then overnight and over Sunday wind and cloud will increase from the West with gales and heavy rain sweeping East over the UK through the day. By evening winds will swing Westerly and it will turn much colder with wintry showers sweeping East over many areas through Sunday night and Monday. The parent Low is then shown to drift slowly SE over Britain through the early days of next week with further showers or outbreaks of rain at times and as it turns colder generally some snowfall will occur, chiefly in Northern and Eastern Britain and over hills elsewhere too.

GFS then takes us through the second half of next week with a short drier interlude before the weather returns to very unsettled conditions again with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds as further Low pressure areas move East or SE over the UK. With temperatures rather lower than recently there is always the chance of some snowfall too, especially over the hills and in the North.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a rather colder period with spells of precipitation, mostly of rain but some of snow throughout the next few weeks as there remains little respite in the barrage of bad weather moving into the UK from the West or NW.

UKMO tonight shows a sinking Low pressure area slipping South from the UK at the middle of next week and on into Southern Europe. Increasingly cold and unsettled weather continues with some rain at times and some sleet or snow looks likely over the hills of Southern Britain for a time around midweek while the North becomes dry and bright for a time if cold and frosty.

GEM tonight shows strong trough disruption over the British Isles throughout the latter stages of it's run with plenty more rain and sleet with snow over the hills later next week and the weekend.

NAVGEM closes it's run with a quieter interlude following the early week's rain and snow before a new surge of Low pressure looks like sliding back down over the UK later next week.

ECM pulls yet another powerful depression SE across the UK later next week hardly giving this coming weekend's and next weeks Low time to clear away it's rain and snow before introducing more problems again later next week with rain and strong winds preceded by snow in places over the North and East and doubtless more flooding to SW Britain. then at the end of the run this Low too pulls away to the South with slack pressure in cold air developing over the UK with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow still possible in light winds.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show further trough disruption over the UK being spawned by Low pressure off Southern Greenland through the South of the UK to Italy. High pressure will likely be as strong as ever across Scandinavia and NE Europe feeding cold East or SE winds on the Northern and NE periphery of the UK trough.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strengthening flow moving across the Atlantic and moving South over the UK early next week and then East across Southern Europe. This trajectory is maintained and pulled back a little West next week which is the catalyst for colder air to infiltrate over part of the British Isles at least at times next week.

In Summary tonight the weather looks a right mess with rain and showers a common theme of most days of the next two weeks. What is rather different is the lower temperatures we are all going to encounter bringing a real risk of some of the rain falling wintry with some accumulating snow at times, chiefly over Northern and Eastern areas but areas further South and West at times too. Low pressure of course remains the driving force to all this inclement weather with repeated centre's drifting SE across the UK and increasing the already dire flooding conditions here in Somerset at the moment. What is important and could be instrumental in February's weather is the dogged nature of the persisting cold block over Europe which while keeping parts of the UK in worryingly wet conditions it could also import cold into our shores at times with a continuing snow risk for some.

anyone is entitled to make a prediction but thats all it can be in the upcoming set up.  no one, even exeter, have a clue how this will pan out.  matty - even you could see an inch of rain or half a foot of snow by the end of next week. its impossible to call. by all means have a viewpoint but perhaps a little less certainty would be more relaistic.

note the canadian vortex weakening all the time it is cut away from its siberian feed.  note the heights across the arctic increasing with time such that the jet will sink further south to our west.  that also raises the chance that if the euro trough fills out, we could see the flow become more sw later through week 2. that would require the scandi ridge to sink away and it has shown no signs of doing so as the clock has ticked by.  all fascinating and defintiely the coldest part of the winter upon us thus far. (no sh*t sherlock!)

btw gandy, do you see what i was getting at last weekend yet ?

The Polar Vortex does seem to be taking something of a hammering just now. It is still there but from some of the charts I've seen in the last few days, it looks to be rather smaller compared to what it was a month or so back.

Looks rather wet and unsettled to me as a general pattern. Potential for some snow further north. Looks increasingly marginal the further south you head. Other than that it's fair to say its a finely balanced situation and no one from cold or mild persuasion should be banking on anything yet.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

looks cold to me by middle of next week have u checked out min and max temps 0c by day in mid lands thurs and snow down to low level in south east by sat night . this can be seen on almost all models now.

Originally Posted by: doctor snow 

Temperature projections are pretty inaccurate at the best of times on the models. It'll certainly be colder, but I would expect temps to hold up around 4 to 5 for much of the country. Probably milder than that to the southwest peninsula, and maybe a touch colder in the far north and in obvious areas.

There's certainly little to suggest widespread snow being likely when you take cumulative output into account. Far from it.

It's always worth noting that things could change to a colder, snowier outlook, if only because if its not noted someone will always feel obliged to state what is the obvious

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

  I disagree only insofar as I think some transient low level snow might be possible as the ongoing unsettled weather turns just a little colder as we head into Feb.

I am also reminded of the easterly for this week which some were quite annoyed about anyone daring to suggest would not happen .....

I always knew what you was getting at.

tbh gav, its easy to be smug now and it could easily have gone the other way. however, the arctic high that came across was, for me the game changer as it enabled the scandi block to hold better and backed the vortex trough extension further west. we could still be unlucky but i suspect those above 500 feet will definitely be needing their shovels and if we get the right slackness/precip intensity/continental feed, those lower down will join in. no sign at the moment of the overall pattern changing either.

i would discount the ukmo day 6 as being too progressive re the easterly.

I appreciate that it is FI but GFS has suggested a couple times in the model runs the last few days a pleasantly mild southerly or south-south-westerly that with a bit of sunshine could bring a nice day, around 7-9th February.  Almost plume-like but February.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znGBU5oODz8

Still the models seem to be showing the best chance of some decent cold all winter. Plus some of the model set where really frigid with heavy frontal snow on offer. At the moment I think a reasonable division for the next few weeks is something like

20% Chance of sustained severe cold (copius snow and ice days e.c.t.)

30% Chance of a short sharp cold spell with some transient wet snowfall and wintry showers locally but nothing to get overly excited about.

50% Chance of a cold spell fading out towards a cold zonal 'icelandic regime' with wet snow and transient slush in the north, dry snow on higher ground and rain in the south.

I remembe you trying to put words into my mouth, but I don't remember anyone suggesting an easterly was definitely going to happen - just that for a day or two it looked likely (as opposed to certain). Hopefully you won't be doing that again!

Now, back to the models. Last night's ECM control again shows a prolonged marginal situation with several trough disruptions. By T+360 the disruption stops and a deep Icelandic low is poised to bring us a return to more traditional Atlantic fare.

The ensembles last night, both GEFS and ECM-15, continue to show the same as the past few days - cold, unsettled with an ongoing risk of snow almost anywhere. And where it's not snowing, a fair bit of rain looks likley.

Nice UKMO this morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0  NAVGEM is UKMETs closest bedfellow today.

BUT the "best model" the ECM is nowhere near as cold at 144 nor is the GFS and the MEt last night only placed 30% chance of easterly cold for the end of the next working week and instead favoured the 70% liklihood of a milder Atlantic solution.  So the realistic thing this morning is that the ukmeto model is wrong.

EDit GEM this morning offers extended cold with snow risk for North:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0

So it will probably take a lot of model runs before Sunday evening before Friday's weather is broadly synoptically evolved.