Hi everyone. Here is my interpretation of the midday outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 24th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show an occluding front slowly crossing East overnight with a spell of rain for all followed by drier but murky weather later in the night. Tomorrow will see a freshening Westerly flow with showers in the NW at first then areas further SE for a time late in the day Then overnight and over Sunday wind and cloud will increase from the West with gales and heavy rain sweeping East over the UK through the day. By evening winds will swing Westerly and it will turn much colder with wintry showers sweeping East over many areas through Sunday night and Monday. The parent Low is then shown to drift slowly SE over Britain through the early days of next week with further showers or outbreaks of rain at times and as it turns colder generally some snowfall will occur, chiefly in Northern and Eastern Britain and over hills elsewhere too.
GFS then takes us through the second half of next week with a short drier interlude before the weather returns to very unsettled conditions again with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds as further Low pressure areas move East or SE over the UK. With temperatures rather lower than recently there is always the chance of some snowfall too, especially over the hills and in the North.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show a rather colder period with spells of precipitation, mostly of rain but some of snow throughout the next few weeks as there remains little respite in the barrage of bad weather moving into the UK from the West or NW.
UKMO tonight shows a sinking Low pressure area slipping South from the UK at the middle of next week and on into Southern Europe. Increasingly cold and unsettled weather continues with some rain at times and some sleet or snow looks likely over the hills of Southern Britain for a time around midweek while the North becomes dry and bright for a time if cold and frosty.
GEM tonight shows strong trough disruption over the British Isles throughout the latter stages of it's run with plenty more rain and sleet with snow over the hills later next week and the weekend.
NAVGEM closes it's run with a quieter interlude following the early week's rain and snow before a new surge of Low pressure looks like sliding back down over the UK later next week.
ECM pulls yet another powerful depression SE across the UK later next week hardly giving this coming weekend's and next weeks Low time to clear away it's rain and snow before introducing more problems again later next week with rain and strong winds preceded by snow in places over the North and East and doubtless more flooding to SW Britain. then at the end of the run this Low too pulls away to the South with slack pressure in cold air developing over the UK with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow still possible in light winds.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show further trough disruption over the UK being spawned by Low pressure off Southern Greenland through the South of the UK to Italy. High pressure will likely be as strong as ever across Scandinavia and NE Europe feeding cold East or SE winds on the Northern and NE periphery of the UK trough.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strengthening flow moving across the Atlantic and moving South over the UK early next week and then East across Southern Europe. This trajectory is maintained and pulled back a little West next week which is the catalyst for colder air to infiltrate over part of the British Isles at least at times next week.
In Summary tonight the weather looks a right mess with rain and showers a common theme of most days of the next two weeks. What is rather different is the lower temperatures we are all going to encounter bringing a real risk of some of the rain falling wintry with some accumulating snow at times, chiefly over Northern and Eastern areas but areas further South and West at times too. Low pressure of course remains the driving force to all this inclement weather with repeated centre's drifting SE across the UK and increasing the already dire flooding conditions here in Somerset at the moment. What is important and could be instrumental in February's weather is the dogged nature of the persisting cold block over Europe which while keeping parts of the UK in worryingly wet conditions it could also import cold into our shores at times with a continuing snow risk for some.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY