theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
25 January 2014 12:56:38

Awful GFS 6z. I'm thinking/hoping we end up with a half way house between the big two ECM and UKMO which would be very wintry but perhaps not the insane Easterly the UKMO shows this morning.

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

The Op was pretty much a mild outlier in FI but in general the ensembles still offer plenty of easterly biased options if not frigid cold! Still much prefer the UKMO though!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


After I crticised UKMO at the 144 range several days ago saying it was always off the mark, lets hope it is as accurate as some said it was

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
25 January 2014 13:09:11

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


biggest warming of the Winter

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
25 January 2014 13:23:04


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


biggest warming of the Winter


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


HOLY BARTLETT


that could be the biggest warming ever.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gusty
25 January 2014 13:24:39


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


biggest warming of the Winter


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


...and it will be meteorological spring if and when that propogates down. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
25 January 2014 13:29:55
Hmmm, outside temperature has shot up from 6.1c to 9.9c in the last hour and 20 mins!! Is this possibly the leading edge of this evenings weatherfront...
ARTzeman
25 January 2014 13:34:10

Hmmm, outside temperature has shot up from 6.1c to 9.9c in the last hour and 20 mins!! Is this possibly the leading edge of this evenings weatherfront...

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


 


More likely to be Waterfront.....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 14:20:19



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


biggest warming of the Winter


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


...and it will be meteorological spring if and when that propogates down. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Another stunted Spring then! March is rapidly replacing December as a winter month nowadays


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
peeps in west oxon
25 January 2014 14:32:12
This may be a silly question, but I will ask it anyway! What could the stratospheric warming mean for us?😚
West Oxfordshire, 80M ASL
idj20
25 January 2014 14:33:51

This may be a silly question, but I will ask it anyway! What could the stratospheric warming mean for us?😚

Originally Posted by: peeps in west oxon 



There you go: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere-tutorial;sess=

Folkestone Harbour. 
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2014 14:47:17


Another stunted Spring then! March is rapidly replacing December as a winter month nowadays


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


If you overlook the exceptionally warm 2012 March and exceptionally cold December 2010
i.e. base the announcement on the last 12 months.

North York Moors weather 
Gooner
25 January 2014 15:07:51



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


biggest warming of the Winter


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


...and it will be meteorological spring if and when that propogates down. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I wouldn't be too sure about that Steve, that chart is for the 10th leaving 18days to go, no-one on here can be sure how long it takes to have an influence on our weather

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
25 January 2014 15:15:58

There is a march that has a CET of 1.0C, which is amazing given we had a 2.7C march last year. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
25 January 2014 15:48:09


There is a march that has a CET of 1.0C, which is amazing given we had a 2.7C march last year. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


That must have been incredible!

Gooner
25 January 2014 15:59:34

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012512/UN60-21.GIF?25-16


UKMO so far

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


peeps in west oxon
25 January 2014 16:12:54

This may be a silly question, but I will ask it anyway! What could the stratospheric warming mean for us?😚

Originally Posted by: idj20 



There you go: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere-tutorial;sess = UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: peeps in west oxon 




Thank you😊
West Oxfordshire, 80M ASL
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:13:23

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-102.png?12


looks a brief Easterly from GFS


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png


chilly


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chiltern Blizzard
25 January 2014 16:16:20



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6 
biggest warming of the Winter

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


...and it will be meteorological spring if and when that propogates down.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Another stunted Spring then! March is rapidly replacing December as a winter month nowadays

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Ok, March 2013 was very cold, but given 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 were below average, and of course 2010 was spectacularly cold, and 2009 was very snowy, this is an odd thing to say.


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:17:37

Looks like UKMO coming into line with the others. Only a brief easterly, and then we have to hope for a slider or it goes pete tong and we only get cold rain which is what the METO are expecting. Disappointing, but not surprising


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:18:31

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012512/UN120-21.GIF?25-17


UKMO out to 120

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
25 January 2014 16:22:42

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png


different shape to the LP on the 12z

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:25:04

UKMO goes from hero to zero. GFS is a lot better.


OVer to ECM to restore some faith


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Phil G
25 January 2014 16:25:25

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png 
different shape to the LP on the 12z

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Yes Marcus. Run looks quite different now to the 6z. Did start changing around T100.

Gooner
25 January 2014 16:28:08


UKMO goes from hero to zero. GFS is a lot better.


OVer to ECM to restore some faith


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012512/UN144-21.GIF?25-17


yes a bit of a disappointment

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:28:58

Wonderful looking chart


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-180.png?12


GFS now flavour of the month again!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:29:19

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-186.png?12


it does look a bit different, nice HP to North, hopefully it will stick around

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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