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The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:30:18

Polar Maritime Airmass gets a long way south!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-1-186.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
25 January 2014 16:30:27



UKMO goes from hero to zero. GFS is a lot better.


OVer to ECM to restore some faith


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012512/UN144-21.GIF?25-17


yes a bit of a disappointment


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And yet again the next Atlantic low waiting to attack!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:33:03

GEM lost the easterly as well, now we have to rely on favourable trough disruption and jet diggning south as per GFS 12z


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012512/gem-0-150.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:36:12


Polar Maritime Airmass gets a long way south!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-1-186.png?12


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1863.png


yep chilly


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.png


sharp frosts up North


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
25 January 2014 16:40:54

GEM tries to bring back the block


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012512/gemnh-0-234.png?12


Shannon Whatsitcalled  is busy tonight!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:44:09

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


The warming is still there but to the extent


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
25 January 2014 16:46:42

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png


Far end of fi ends with yet another storm system.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
25 January 2014 16:50:15


UKMO goes from hero to zero.


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
25 January 2014 16:57:20



UKMO goes from hero to zero.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And those who were telling me how good the UKMO 144 charts are


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
25 January 2014 17:09:14
12z GFS, and 120 plus 144h UKMO Model output analysis:

Next Week's Weather dominated by Low pressure most days and Strong winds with heavy showers and heavy rain, Scottish Highland and Pennines and Dartmoor plus Hills of Wales and Central England there could be heavy snow for some lucky ones, rain at lower levels especially London and Southern UK, but Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning SE England and maybe London too could maybe get some Wintry mix Showers.

Winds blowing Gale Force or Severe Gales, otherwise if not still most days Windy and Cyclonic Flow and Fairly near average max. Temps, with the only frost likely on Wednesday and Thursday Night that will affect many parts of UK, with late Wednesday and during Thursday less rain and drier in West North and Central parts, but Cloudy and with wintry showers for SE England.

The Milder West to SW flow arrives on Next Friday bringing mostly rain to many areas, hence further high waters and surface flooding likely.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Chiltern Blizzard
25 January 2014 17:36:41



UKMO goes from hero to zero.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


And those who were telling me how good the UKMO 144 charts are UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Would be funny if the 12z ECM bought had an easterly at 144... Stranger things have happenned in model output land! There's something about easterly set ups that make modelling extremely unreliable - the only good thing about that this means they can sometimes pop up at short notice and provide a nice/nasty (depending on your perspective) surprise!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Weathermac
25 January 2014 17:55:14



UKMO goes from hero to zero.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


And those who were telling me how good the UKMO 144 charts are UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

it's only one run will change a few times over the next few days ....flooding is not going to ease anytime soon that's for sure.

JACKO4EVER
25 January 2014 18:13:21



UKMO goes from hero to zero.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


And those who were telling me how good the UKMO 144 charts are UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

it's only one run will change a few times over the next few days ....flooding is not going to ease anytime soon that's for sure.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yeh, it's sure going to be wet, but bets are off as to how cold it's going to get. It dosent look overly mild whatever happens, but the snow may be elusive for many
NickR
  • NickR
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 January 2014 18:16:34



UKMO goes from hero to zero.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Entirely predictable and should surprise only the naiive.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Can you please stop this sort of haughty post (this is not the first, which is why I am mentioning this). Aside from the generally unpleasant tone, this post is also wrong: UKMO has been and generally is a good model - often the best - so the idea that only the naive could have thought that it wouldn't undergo a flip is nonsense. (Added to the fact that this is just one run.)


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gooner
25 January 2014 18:19:03

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECH1-96.GIF?25-0


ECM out to 96 ,simialr to the rest


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
25 January 2014 18:23:59

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECH1-96.GIF?25-0 
ECM out to 96 ,simialr to the rest

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Yes, only slight changes in the overall pattern so far this evening. The most likely outcome IMO is still an unsettled chilly one with the chance of some wintry precipitation away from northern hills but nothing overly wintry generally. The northern hills will get lots of the white stuff but I'd be surprised if there wasn't some elsewhere (and lots of wind and rain no doubt)
Whether Idle
25 January 2014 18:34:00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=0&archive=0


You have to admire how skilful the British Isles are at avoiding the wealth of  deep cold air around in our part of the planet.  Remarkable!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 January 2014 18:34:58
Thursday could be a snowy day if there's any pp around

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 January 2014 18:42:53
Not a bad chart certainly when compared to winter so far. Could be very snowy for someone. Low looks to be undercutting as well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
25 January 2014 18:46:19

Not a bad chart certainly when compared to winter so far. Could be very snowy for someone. Low looks to be undercutting as well Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html


Getting interesting at 192.  If only pressure was robustly higher in the GIN sea:


 


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


This ECM run FWIW looks snowy for northern hills.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
25 January 2014 18:51:09

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0


Slidertastic!  In the context of this winter a stunning chart for cold fans in N and E Britain.  Wet for the SW though, nevermind, its FI!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
25 January 2014 18:53:12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 
Slidertastic! In the context of this winter a stunning chart for cold fans in N and E Britain. Wet for the SW though, nevermind, its FI!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Stunning meaning cool and wet? 😝
Whether Idle
25 January 2014 18:54:34

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0  Slidertastic! In the context of this winter a stunning chart for cold fans in N and E Britain. Wet for the SW though, nevermind, its FI!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Stunning meaning cool and wet? 😝

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Dripping wet but notherners with elevation should do well.  (Adds obligatory gesture in reponse)


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 January 2014 18:56:26

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 
Slidertastic! In the context of this winter a stunning chart for cold fans in N and E Britain. Wet for the SW though, nevermind, its FI!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Stunning meaning cool and wet? 😝

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Yes this run doesn't quite make it but its very nearly a great run. Wouldn't take much of an upgrade for that to be very snowy


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hade Edge Snowman
25 January 2014 18:57:47


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0  Slidertastic! In the context of this winter a stunning chart for cold fans in N and E Britain. Wet for the SW though, nevermind, its FI!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Stunning meaning cool and wet? 😝

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Dripping wet but notherners with elevation should do well.  (Adds obligatory gesture in reponse)


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


That'll be me then WI, hopefully......


Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
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