Interesting how some models keep showing a AH and then dropping the idea?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?6

you wouldn't think it looking at it but the above was one of the milder options

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012600/gemnh-0-216.png?00

Look how close GEM is to the GFS control ...................................straw

Interesting.

So many options on the table, pretty bamboozling and we need to get the scenario sorted for Friday firstly. 

A critical period for this winter coming up, can it deliver some cold goods?

Hi all,

Here's today's second video update;

Sudden Stratospheric Warming In February?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Note the question mark.

Lot's of other stuff included too + Chance of some wintry showers tonight.

Winter is Over!

did it start?

tonight

NASA GEOS time!

0Z has run, and it looks to be in camp 2 along with UKMO, NAVGEM and GEM. So its looking like a case of minors vs majors

NASA GEOS also turns particularly cold in terms of uppers too

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2014012600/geos-1-120.png?26-12

No change so far on GFS

ECM and GFS certainly hinting at very mild and very wet spell sometime around 5th February!

Has been a horrendous winter to be fair - We'll all be spouting webbed feet before long.

Fergusson:

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Once colder snap ends (in circa 6-7 days), @metoffice expect rtn to unsettled W/SW flow into foreseeable & no prolonged dry spell

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

ECM and GFS certainly hinting at very mild and very wet spell sometime around 5th February!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That'll make a nice change 😂

Of course it was at the mild end of the runs, a bit of support but at the mild end

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...

Cold in the NE though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007

I find your lack of faith in the NAVGEM disturbing.

Anyway GFS 12Z seems to be putting up more resistance than the 6Z. 

GFS has Angle of attack all wrong for many - SSW winds no good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&mode=0

Looks okay for Pennines north above 300m for snow.

Usually I would agree, but there is absolutely no warm sector there at all, we have the continental polar and polar maritime airmasses mixing together resulting in a really messy picture across the UK. However, I think snow will locally get down to lower levels on that, it is just about cold enough. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

LP further South , could help later?

Gah UKMO has backed off though, 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021

UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story.  Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.