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Interesting how some models keep showing a AH and then dropping the idea?
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?6
you wouldn't think it looking at it but the above was one of the milder options
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012600/gemnh-0-216.png?00
Look how close GEM is to the GFS control ...................................straw
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Interesting.
So many options on the table, pretty bamboozling and we need to get the scenario sorted for Friday firstly.
A critical period for this winter coming up, can it deliver some cold goods?
Hi all,
Here's today's second video update;
Sudden Stratospheric Warming In February?
http://www.gavsweathervids.com
Note the question mark.
Lot's of other stuff included too + Chance of some wintry showers tonight.
@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Once colder snap ends (in circa 6-7 days), @metoffice expect rtn to unsettled W/SW flow into foreseeable & no prolonged dry spell
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?6 you wouldn't think it looking at it but the above was one of the milder optionshttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png
Fergusson:
Originally Posted by: Matty H
Winter is Over!
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
did it start?
tonight
NASA GEOS time!
0Z has run, and it looks to be in camp 2 along with UKMO, NAVGEM and GEM. So its looking like a case of minors vs majors
NASA GEOS also turns particularly cold in terms of uppers too
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2014012600/geos-1-120.png?26-12
No change so far on GFS
ECM and GFS certainly hinting at very mild and very wet spell sometime around 5th February!
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
Has been a horrendous winter to be fair - We'll all be spouting webbed feet before long.
Of course it was at the mild end of the runs, a bit of support but at the mild end
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021
Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...
Cold in the NE though
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007
I find your lack of faith in the NAVGEM disturbing.
Anyway GFS 12Z seems to be putting up more resistance than the 6Z.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
GFS has Angle of attack all wrong for many - SSW winds no good
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&mode=0
Looks okay for Pennines north above 300m for snow.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Usually I would agree, but there is absolutely no warm sector there at all, we have the continental polar and polar maritime airmasses mixing together resulting in a really messy picture across the UK. However, I think snow will locally get down to lower levels on that, it is just about cold enough.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png
LP further South , could help later?
Gah UKMO has backed off though,
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png LP further South , could help later?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021
UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story. Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.