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Snowedin3
28 January 2014 10:08:07
At the end of the day even if we don't get any lowland snow this winter in the south, it's not the end of the world, signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one. We have been spoilt these last few years, so even though most of us are snow hungry I'm sure it'd be worth waiting if next year was like 1947:p
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Charmhills
28 January 2014 10:09:52

Very unsettled and at times very wet leading to further flooding possibly become more widespread with time if some of the runs verify.


I've given up on this winter now.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
NDJF
28 January 2014 10:10:40

well the winter weather continues in the same vain as it started...nothing impressive to be seen and to be honest this winter was always forcast to be avg by those with no commercial interest in ensuring the dramatic headlines or indeed any reference to wintry weather in the forcast, the irony here is in my opinion its been the forums themselves that have often created hype around winter weather for reasons unknown, and until the either the latitude of of the UK changes or the gulf stream has a change we are stuck in a fairly benign weather patternm bar the odd the one in a while blip in favour of cold. it is what it is, be grateful we have food ont the table and a warm environment in which to view the weather and read from our ipdads / tablets / latops whatever....many around the world have no such luxury>

Gooner
28 January 2014 10:28:11

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png


will feel quite in the strong winds


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
28 January 2014 10:28:32


Very unsettled and at times very wet leading to further flooding possibly become more widespread with time if some of the runs verify.


I've given up on this winter now.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Just to add to the picture of a very poor winter NOAA has given upon SSW and gone into reverse!


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif


 

Gooner
28 January 2014 10:30:08

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png


dont rule out wintry ppn further North


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1563.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.png


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Roonie
28 January 2014 10:47:46



Very unsettled and at times very wet leading to further flooding possibly become more widespread with time if some of the runs verify.


I've given up on this winter now.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Just to add to the picture of a very poor winter NOAA has given upon SSW and gone into reverse!


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


The link below has been very accurate for the last 5 years for SSW forecast and has not been liable to massive fluctuations from run to run. It is the one I would recommend people use to get an idea of any SSW forecast.


http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng


There is a warming forecast but nothing out of the ordinary as at this moment.


 


Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
nsrobins
28 January 2014 10:50:05

. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
28 January 2014 10:53:56

Good news, spring arrives by the middle part of the month courtesy of the mighty GFS: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401280600&VAR=pslv&HH=384&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=


Bad news, it's at 384 hours, that's when Captain Kirk will be born, or something like that. But, still, would come as a huge relief for all if that does come to fruition.


 


 

Folkestone Harbour. 
GlenH
28 January 2014 11:04:29

Looking at the fax charts I don't think you will need much altitude in the north to get some snow on Friday as the next intense but occluded front sweeps in. With cold continental air ahead and sub 528 air behind the mild sector is non existent north of Birmingham and potential exists for snowfall away from the coast particularly over Scotland. I imagine the north Pennines, Lake District fells and Scottish mountains will have a fierce blizzard as the front comes through in what is essentially a cold zonal flow. Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


 


Yes, it certainly looks interesting. Hopefully I'll get a good days skiing in in the dales or lakes this weekend.


 

Gooner
28 January 2014 11:26:31


. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Indeed Neil , though I will keep looking at the reliable CFS

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
28 January 2014 11:29:07


. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.

New world order coming.
Russwirral
28 January 2014 11:35:00


. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


 


I think the signals he speaks of are - we cant possibly have two years as bad as this - we would be very unlcuky - even if we had 3-4 frosts it would still be colder than this year.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Gooner
28 January 2014 11:45:26



. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


That certainly hasn't helped , no proof of course but I think that has been a key reason for our lack of cold

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Scandy 1050 MB
28 January 2014 12:02:05




. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That certainly hasn't helped , no proof of course but I think that has been a key reason for our lack of cold


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Didn't we have a spike in solar activity in November as well?  That was the last close to average month and it seems shortly after the intense cold set in over the eastern side of Canada & the US, probably a whole host of things from the QBO, Sun activity and the Pacific SST's all combined to produce what is possibly the worst winter for snow and cold since 1997/1998.  We haven't even had the 1 week of frost and fog which was at least a feature of the mild winter years.  Just hope we don't get a correction down the line for all this mild and wet with cold and dry at the wrong time of year.

roger63
28 January 2014 12:04:43

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=180&code=16&mode=0&carte=0


GFS continues its atlantic V block teasing with somw attempts at pushback from the block around 180h (Ens 8,13,16,19,20).


However after the ups and down sof the past 4 weeks I'm pretty clutched out!Zonality comtiniue to rule  the o6h  ENS right out  to 384h.

roger63
28 January 2014 12:07:43




. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That certainly hasn't helped , no proof of course but I think that has been a key reason for our lack of cold


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


My analysis of QBO shows a virtually identical winter CET on navaege across +ve and -v  QBO cycles.

johnm1976
28 January 2014 12:30:58
Ok straw clutching time, disheartened by tropospheric output, higher up a vortex split is edging towards high res:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012806&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=192 

Maybe winter will have a sting in its tail. I'll be interested to see what FI output we have a week from now!
David M Porter
28 January 2014 12:39:41
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012806&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=192  Maybe winter will have a sting in its tail. I'll be interested to see what FI output we have a week from now!


Winter sure had a sting in its tail last year- big time. That said though, it was a colder and drier winter overall than this one has been thus far.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
28 January 2014 12:40:44
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012806&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=192  Maybe winter will have a sting in its tail. I'll be interested to see what FI output we have a week from now!


Yes there is some definite strat warming being shown on the models, plus its starting to come into the reliable timeframe. Possibly a 2005 style repeat? I do think confidence is growing for a cold end to the winter anyway, even if winter as a whole will turn out to be mild. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 January 2014 12:43:05

CFS gives a rough indication of how long it will take for the warming to propagate down to the 500 level.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014012800/run1m/cfsnh-0-846.png?00


First week of march unfortunately 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
28 January 2014 12:43:23

How ironic that the coldest few days of Winter IMBY thus far will come from a west north-westerly delivery -5 850hPA and 2m temps in the region of +5 degrees!  With a snow risk throughout the entire ensemble run of just 2 individual 5% risks up to mid February (traditionally the coldest period of any winter in these parts) pretty much says it all!!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014012806/graphe3_1000_222_250___.gif

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Quantum
28 January 2014 12:45:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-384.png?0


God, NAFES is awful. Its a terrible thing seeing all that beutiful northen blocking go to waste. Pattern is showing no signs of anything even by the 13th. Time to rule out first half of february. 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-5-0-384.png?0


Bloody hell ^^^


thats the top 10% of heights! And look at where the darkest blue is, STILL OVER FRIGGING CANDA AND THE BAFFIN. If it is possible the february outlook looks even worse than january in terms of hoplessness. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 January 2014 12:51:24


How ironic that the coldest few days of Winter IMBY thus far will come from a west north-westerly delivery -5 850hPA and 2m temps in the region of +5 degrees!  With a snow risk throughout the entire ensemble run of just 2 individual 5% risks up to mid February (traditionally the coldest period of any winter in these parts) pretty much says it all!!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014012806/graphe3_1000_222_250___.gif


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


At the end of the period none of the runs are even getting to minus five!!!!


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140128/06/t850London.png


This one is for london, which I typically use as a 'standard'. At the end a couple at -5C, which looks more like a late october chart than february. I mean when the coldest run at 384h can't even support snow you know you are in for a s*** fest. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
KevBrads1
28 January 2014 12:55:22

Good news, spring arrives by the middle part of the month courtesy of the mighty GFS: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401280600&VAR=pslv&HH=384&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO =
Bad news, it's at 384 hours, that's when Captain Kirk will be born, or something like that. But, still,would come as a huge relief for all if that doescome to fruition.

Originally Posted by: idj20 




Actually that is not Spring, that's a straw clutch chart for Winter, -5C air over parts of the UK

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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