Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week.
GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1.
UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times.
GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time.
NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures.
ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run.
In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.
Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard