Well interesting to see some some warming in the stratosphere in a nearer time frame this time (still FI of course) and in the right place too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=10&carte=1

May end up too late for anything wintry if it occurs but it might at least disrupt the never ending atlantic onslaught.

It been in FI all winter so I'm not getting my hopes up 

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the morning outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 31st 2014.

All models show a deep Low pressure area steaming in from the West today and settling near NW Britain pushing troughs across the UK through the day with spells of heavy rain followed by wintry showers tonight and strengthening SW winds. Tomorrow will become very windy with severe gales in the South and West with the real risk of another storm surge giving rise to coastal flooding issues in these areas. Inland sunshine and showers will be present with hail and thunder between brighter intervals. This showery theme extends into Sunday as the Low only slowly moves away North from Scotland so winds should be less strong.

GFS then shows the rest of it's run with very changeable weather with further spells of rain and strong winds at times with a drier anticyclonic period for parts of the UK for a time later before the unsettled regime returns.

The GFS Ensembles today are concerning again today as they indicate no relief from the very wet pattern of this winter so far with spells of rain predominant throughout the period. The only differing trend from the current situation is the raising of temperatures into the mild category as we pass deeper into next week and through Week 2.

UKMO today closes it's run with next Thursday showing the whole of the North Atlantic and the British Isles being covered in Low pressure in one shape or form with further spells of rain and showers but with slack winds it looks as though night's could be quite cold and frosty should skies clear between the rain and showers.

GEM also shows very unsettled weather in SW winds as Low pressure areas continue to bring spells of rain and showers throughout the next 10 days with temperatures recovering towards near average.

NAVGEM also shows very unsettled weather with low pressure close to Northern Britain with wet and windy conditions persisting over the UK with strong winds at times and average temperatures.

ECM today is quite simply appalling for SW Britain who look like bearing the brunt of repeated attacks of Low pressure areas and fronts moving in off the Atlantic, each bringing it's own version of heavy rain and potentially strong winds. Temperatures may rise a little above average at times later in the period.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no change to the general synoptic setup of Low pressure to the North and NW with SW winds carrying rain and strong winds across all areas of the UK with the wettest weather still likely to be towards the South and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to cross the Atlantic just to the South of the UK and only slowly drifting North to be over the UK later.

In Summary the weather pattern remains a very serious one with regard to pending amounts of rainfall that can be expected if any of the current model projections verify. With little notable change to the pattern away from Low pressure Atlantic based weather continuing for the foreseeable future we can only expect further newsworthy events and disruption making media headlines over the next few weeks. On a minute meaningful scale temperatures will probably rise somewhat later in the run with little or no prospect of cold weather anytime soon.

Unbelievable amount of rain to start February off, which is unusual as February is supposed to be quieter, but not in this mental winter. Wind could be a real issue too with secondary features developing and rapidly deepening.

We can write off any chance of blocking for another 2 weeks. 

And it's back again, high pressure to settle things down just before Valentine's day. Again, the 00z runs seem to like doing that so I bet it'll get snatched away in the next run: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=300&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0

The 06 GFS  toys with the establishment of HP out at 288h.First sign of anything  that might slow down the Atlantic train.However the op ha little support from the ENS.

The block is to the east, so surely the reality is that the cyclones are stalled in our vicinity. Our problem is that the block is being kept too far east to keep us dry. A better located HP cell and we would be enjoying crisp, cold continental air, as we almost did yesterday. Unfortunately, the cyclogenesis coming across the Atlantic is too strong to let the block build westwards and the block to our east has been too strong to be overcome by rampant zonality - hence stalemate, with the poor old British Isles stuck on the wrong side of the fence.

Aprroximate airmasses mid february according to NAEFS

Little change from yesterday, cP airmass somewhat further east and mT airmass somewhat further north. Still wet, cyclonic and cool really, but a continental influence never too far away. 

Bitterly cold arctic airmass somewhat further south this time, in northern norway, snow and wet areas basically the same. 

Thanks Q

1. 
   
   
   Tweet from MVH, says it all really, seen birds looking in the nesting box today, think we come back next November and start all over again, at least it free's some time up in the day for more important stuff, such high expectations as well, no thanks to the many media outlets and headline hunting messages. 
    
    
       Matthew Hugo     ‏@MattHugo81                       3 hrs       
   
   

   Overnight EC32 update continues to 'write off' Feb as a mild wet and windy month. Not a sign of any wintry weather throughout the month.

   
   
   
   

Looks like its going down hill even further pity we cant move somerset and parts of s/w to dryer area

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014013100!!/

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

gets on you nerves all this rain getting a bit silly now

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/138h.htm

A dry spell is needed much more urgently than snow right now, especially in those areas that have suffered flooding recently.

Seems that the EC32 thinks that the SSW taking place this month won't do anything to alter the pattern before February is out.

more or less  complete soil saturation point already in uk dont see that often on such a wide scale if spring does come early this year it wont be a easy workable one

http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4.html

Becoming very windy next week in southern uk if 6gfs has it right

• http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/126h.htm

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013106/gfsnh-1-138.png?6

All that cold air wasted over the north atlantic, and it can only mean one thing for us - bigger rain events.

I wonder whether this has any meaningful effect on atlantic sea temps?

In light of that EC update, perhaps it is time to move on. Rather like giving up on the girl you've been chasing for months. We have to finally accept she's not interested!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013106/gfs-2-168.png?6

Hello

A little channel low with some cold air wrapped up in it

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013106/gfsnh-1-156.png?6

US having the best winter ever. Look at that cold air into Texas and Desert regions

Think as David has said most members be it mild or cold you want, now want dryer weather for folks and families for not suffering in s/w it is very concerning with such a wet outlook

[wequote=The Beast from the East;576461]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013106/gfsnh-1-138.png?6

All that cold air wasted over the north atlantic, and it can only mean one thing for us - bigger rain events.

I wonder whether this has any meaningful effect on atlantic sea temps?

In light of that EC update, perhaps it is time to move on. Rather like giving up on the girl you've been chasing for months. We have to finally accept she's not interested!