This one will need watching Marcus. Could be a major wind event

My advice would be to try and get yourself on an aeroplane, to save flapping your arms for no apparent reason (other than usual)

We can only hope that maybe the GFS is latching onto something there in FI, but I'm not getting my hopes up at the moment in view of the number of teases and false dawns we've had from the models this winter so far.

This awful spell will end at sometime though, we just have to hope it's sooner rather than later.

My advice would be to keep an eye on the models and weather forecasts over the next few days. In all of my years of model watching I have never seen such a disturbed and angry set of charts.

The ferocity of the wind at times combined with rainfall this week that is likely to give another 60-80mm in areas of Southern and western Britain is frankly worrying.

 That's all I can say to it. But indeed there no avoiding it, things are going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Off to check if my house insurance details are all correct.

Indeed Steve, here in Oxfordshire we have had copius amounts of rain, looks like that is set to continue

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-96.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-0-174.png?6

Rain rain rain

In an effort to change the models within the next 7 days I'm cutting my hair today (Crop)...

... that usually works

Good post there - There isn't much else one can say quite frankly.

I wonder how this is now comparing with the autumn of 2000.

Cheers Gavin

Its desperately worrying for many.  For example, I have had scaffolding over one side of my house since post Xmas and theres been no opportunity to make the repairs! 

Also, the flooding situation locally is about to get a lot worse.  We need a break but it is not going to come anytime soon.  Time to dig deep into reserves of British resilience and a case of stiff upper lip.  On the positive side I do have 3 canoes IMBY.

WRT Autumn 2000 it is not as wet yet I dont think but its the combination of wind and rain and the tides etc, its a mulitple hazard scenario.

WI

Ark anyone?

This is starting to look like a very serious situation. Thats not dramatic or over hyped- its the truth. Very,  very serious, I pray it won't pan out as bad as first feared. 

Wind and rain are going to be a real problem this week.

Looking at the wind first here are some charts from the 6z GFS

6z Wednesday 951mb low just off the west coast of Ireland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/96-515UK.GIF?01-6
Strongest gusts inlands are later in the day around 6pm
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/108-289UK.GIF?01-6

Virtually a repeat performance on Saturday
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/168-515UK.GIF?01-6
Gusts inland reaching 110kph in places
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/174-289UK.GIF?01-6

Potentially something very nasty for the south on Sunday morning
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/192-515UK.GIF?01-6
Gusts to 120kph inland (75mph) and 130kph or more on the coast
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/192-289UK.GIF?01-6

Rainfall of 50-80mm by next Sunday morning quite widely in western and southern areas

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020106/192-777UK.GIF?01-6

It's daughter lowmageddon for at least two weeks as the main trough simply spins in situ spawning countless secondary lows, some closed, some waves.

The potential for at least one of these to wreck more havoc across the UK is high, but of course details on the mesoscale will have to be resolved within 48hrs.

Whatever the magnitude of the wind events I can only stress what many others have said that more copious rainfall is practically a certainty and authorities and homeowners alike will be pushed to the limit I'm sure.

As a previous poster points out, the time for reflecting on the lack of snow and ice is over as there are more important things to consider now.

Major strat warming event almost guaranteed now. Meaning we should see the effects sometime after the 18th of february. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020106/gfsnh-10-186.png?6

Also the warming is exactly where we need it, greenie block end of feb? 

Incidently why is no one talking about this? I have heard about the stratosphere all winter, and now finally when there actually is a SSW no one mentions it!?

So to sum up next week its sodden and blowy!

Lovely.

From a weather preceptive its very interesting indeed and plenty to talk about.

Latest airmass guess from NAEFS mean. A bit of a change with the frontal zone starting to move more towards France. This would mean the UK would be more fully in the rmP airmass and the showery cool weather asociated with it. mT airmass continues to be projected further south. Still a slight cP influence especially in the SE. 

Output of yellow warnings enough to put any body off the Model output...

On a slightly unrelated note, its pretty amazing to think that the 850hpa temps are about 20C colder at the south pole, than at the north pole at the moment; and about 10C colder in terms of surface temps despite it being the middle of summer there! Antartica is a different world. 

I hope to God that lot doesn't verify.

A week on Sunday.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Wednesday starting to look seroius now. If anything the low is a bit deeper and the gradient tighter.