Good evening everyone. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 1st 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a continuation of the very unsettled period, lasting throughout next week with Monday and Wednesday the main days of concern as active troughs linked to Atlantic depressions bring copious rainfall once more to those areas that least need it. Wednesday provides the additional risk of severe gales. In between the main rain bands there will be Westerly winds and showers. Temperatures will recover to average values by the end of next week.
GFS shows the weather remaining unsettled through the remainder of the run with further rain and blustery winds and just short drier and more showery spells in between. Temperatures will remain close to average in the North while the South becomes somewhat milder.
The GFS Ensembles show little change tonight with further large amounts of wind and rain populating the UK through the next week or two. Winds look like staying strong too at times with a Westerly element throughout. Temperatures look likely that they will be on the rise somewhat as time passes.
UKMO is maintaining it's stance of WSW winds later next week with troughs crossing East at times with rain at times in average temperatures.
GEM shows a very windy end to next week and weekend with further bands of showers and rain transferring East over the UK in average temperatures on regular occasions.
NAVGEM shows a series of depressions running East over the UK later next week and the weekend with spells of rain and showers passing over at times in average temperatures.
ECM is a little less dramatic tonight thankfully though nonetheless still shows a lot of powerful depressions delivering copious rain amounts before we get to a windy and milder period late in the run as warm winds are sucked up from the SW with a continued feed of rain and drizzle especially near Southern and western coasts and hills.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are not that supportive of it's operational at Days 9 and 10 as it maintains the approach it has shown for the last few days of a bias from it's members of Low pressure likely to be to the North and NW with a SW flow maintained over the UK in pressure likely to be quite low at 1005mbs to 990mbs South to North, very adequate to support fairly appreciable amounts of rain from fronts travelling NE across the UK in average temperatures at worst.
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The Jet Stream shows the West to East flow to the South of the UK maintained over the period drifting slowly North later in the run.
In Summary tonight the pattern remains very volatile throughout the reliable period of the output tonight. There will be regular occurrences of wind and rain on most days with the winds very strong at times as well as the rain. There is a slight lifting of the gloom at the very end of the ECM operational tonight with a strong shift North of the Jet Flow carrying the depressions further North too. Whether this becomes a trend or just a glitch will be borne out in subsequent runs but the one positive would be temperatures look like rising somewhat, especially in the South later.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset