If we start from 1st January 2006, so in the last 8 years, here are some amazing stats that have occurred that have either broken or got in the top 10 of long standing records such as the CET, rainfall series. I may have missed out one or two and it doesn't include such things as the highest maximum ever recorded in October etc.

CET Seasons
4th Warmest winter: 2006-07
Warmest Spring: 2011
3rd warmest spring: 2007
5th warmest spring: 2014
5th warmest summer: 2006
Warmest autumn: 2006
2nd warmest autumn: 2011
10th warmest autumn: 2009

Other notables
Coldest winter since 1978-79
Coldest spring since 1962
Coolest summer since 1988

CET months
5th warmest January: 2007
4th warmest March: 2012
Warmest April: 2011
2nd warmest April: 2007
8th warmest April: 2014 (jointly held)
Warmest July: 2006
Warmest September: 2006
3rd warmest October: 2006
8th warmest October: 2011
10th warmest October: 2013
2nd warmest November: 2011
9th warmest November: 2009
2nd coldest December: 2010

Other notables
Joint 13th coldest March: 2013

Rainfall seasons
3rd wettest year: 2012
4th wettest summer: 2012
Wettest winter: 2013-14

Wettest January: 2014
7th wettest February: 2014
Wettest April: 2012
7th driest April: 2011
9th driest April: 2007
Wettest June: 2012
4th wettest June: 2007
5th wettest November: 2009
7th wettest December: 2012

Sunshine
2nd sunniest winter: 2008
2nd sunniest spring 2011
5th sunniest winter: 2012
3rd dullest summer: 2012
Sunniest February: 2008
2nd sunniest March: 2012
Sunniest April: 2011
3rd sunniest April: 2007
Sunniest July: 2006
Sunniest November: 2006
2nd sunniest December: 2008
4th sunniest December: 2009
2nd dullest June: 2012
2nd dullest August: 2008

That period is 97 months

If my calculations are right, I reckon about 1 in 5 months have been in the top 10 for one or more reasons.

These are long standing records, CET goes back to 1659, rainfall series to 1766

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Thanks Kev

That's a great summary and one I had wondered about in these crazy times

Plenty there for those who believe our climate has become more extreme

I have always been rather sceptical about claims of climate extremity but the evidence is certainly stacking up......and beraing in mind the dataset is so long it cannot really be dismissed

A lot of the records mentioned are thirds and lower, not good evidence of more extremes - and often as not a 'first' will be by a trivial amount which is more of a lottery than anything.
For example this January will have broke a few records but only because the very last day was wet again.
That last event could have been 1st Feb.

Our partitioning into Months and Seasons is rather arbitrary.

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I am trying to respect your opinion but why do I think it is a load of twaddle?

You talk about these values as though the gap between driest and wettest, sunniest and dullest etc is small The gap between driest and wettest January as though it is only what 50mm when infact it is 170 odd mm.

Also these records are at least a couple of centuries old, the CET is over 350 years. In theory, as you gain more data , the harder the records become. You don't think a top 10 out of 350 or so, is in the high percentile? You talk as if it's top 10 out of only 30.

Another thing is that January comment as if it was only the last wet day has made the difference. It was in the top 3 before this!

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Agreed. Thanks for this analysis. I've not done any statistical tests but intuitively this shows something statistically significant, in particular for warmest and sunniest months where the figures are especially stark. The years 2006 and 2007 were especially notable in this respect. I remember feeling back then as though we really had seen the last of anything properly cold in this country.

Andrew

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Great post Kev!  The facts speak for themselves, the anti AGW rhetroraticians can read them and weep if they want!!

 

WI

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That's a fascinating list you put out there Kev

I think it's the warm months that strikes me the most

There is a thread going on in the climate forum I noticed discussing the evidence of single extreme weather events to overall climate change and the stats you have here are the sort of thing needed for that discussion.

You would be hard pushed to link one warm month to evidence of climate change but that many in the space of 97 months is quite powerful even though it only relates to Regional not Global data

The stats you published show 11 out of 97 months in the top 10 warmest since 1659 - There are 120 top 10 months altogether (12x10) and a total of 4261 months since 1659. Doing a test for random chance of 11 being in the last 8 years comes out infinitessimally small

Incidentally I think Jan 2008 should just about be in your list as well !

btw I noted that you had Spring 2013 as coldest since 1962 - I have seen other reports (and my database too) indicating that it should be 1891

 

 

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Weather records only go back 300 years.

What about every 500 years or 1000 or more years in terms of our changing weather.

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I can inform you (for one who works on the coalface over 40yrs (no stats) the weather since 2006 has changed out of recognition, especially this winter

 

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Some interesting stats there, thanks for posting. Our weather seems to be more volatile now- I wonder why?

Here's another startling stat that raises my eyebrow.

Since and including October 1995, which is just over 18 years, 6 of the warmest top 10 Octobers on record for CET.

6 of the top 10 in the last 18 years?

What's the statistical odds of a 20 year old living through 6 of a top 10 list, a list which has over 350 data points?

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By how much has the temperature increased since the CET was established?

There was an article on extremes in Weather several years back. Can't say I fully understood or indeed remember it and I do think at some point it's jist that 'you'll allways get records and at a surprising rate' can't explain things. Whether we've reached that point yet I don't know but your stats are interesting.

We do seem to get weather that is 'stuck in a rut' more than we did and the rains of the past few years, the heat of the months  (plus the amazing cold of last mid spring) you mentioned have all come over a short period of time.

The CET dataset is all we have in fairly precise terms

Well it looks as though we have broken the January 1766 series record.

It does seem that weather patterns are locked in a rut for periods of time in recent years.

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Just look at those that top the list


Warmest and sunniest July: 2006
Warmest September: 2006
Warmest autumn: 2006
Sunniest November: 2006
Warmest April: 2007 until broken
Sunniest February: 2008
Warmest and sunniest April: 2011
Warmest spring: 2011
Wettest April: 2012
Wettest June: 2012
Wettest January: 2014
Wettest winter: 2013-14

It says to me in the last 8 years, weather patterns have been getting into "ruts" or locked in for lengthy periods of time in order for these records to fall.

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Great stats Kev, thanks for these and the others you provide. As you state, obvious evidence of a repeating pattern to give these records. The question I have as a fan of cold and snow is will we be locked in a cold 'rut' and will that coincide with winter, or are warm and rain records more likely? Very interesting..........

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Well 2010 was the coldest year for CET since 1986, thanks to northerly blocking being so dominating during that year. It was a very negative NAO year. April 2012 to June 2013 was chilly with numerous below average months and months that were below 1961-90 averages at that.

So although barring December 2010 and March 2013, no cold has been that exceptionally cold, we have had periods where cold has been dominating long enough to produce coldest winter since 1978-79, coldest spring with 1962 since the 1800s, coolest summer with 1986-88 since 1985 for CET.

From 1997 to 2007, chilly regimes were very much in the minority and weakish efforts.

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Fantastic stats as ever Kev, I was a little surprised at the number of 'sunniests' in the original post. I can understand the wetter and warmer ones for sure.

 

Great stuff

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Excellent thread Kevin and as they say - Records are there to be broken.

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indeed , the climate in the uk has swung through many extremes over geological history , no doubt that the climate appears to be more extreme since records began but thats just the blink of an eye. Roman era climate was warm , Norman times were characterised by mild and stormy winters indeed hastings castle collapsed into the sea in that era! climate has always channged naturally question is how much are we infuecing it ?

Yes that surprises me too. You would expect that with more energy in the system, and generally warmer and wetter conditions, that cloud would be more prevalent. (And increased air traffic does have a not insignificant effect on cloud cover too.)

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Can now add February 2014 to this list as it has climbed into the top 10 wettest.

January- February 2014 is the wettest such period on record for England and Wales..

The last few years have been ridiculous. Even if you only go back as recent as late November 2010, that period up to Christmas 2010 was the coldest such period since at least 1772 then you had that April 2011 and that result in a record breaking Spring. Then we had a summer that turned out the coolest for over two decades for the CET, all three summer months were below 1961-90 averages, then this was followed by that exceptionally warm autumn. The flip between March and April 2012 was quite something. The atrocious summer, March 2013 and the spring, July got in the top 10 warmest for the CET, now the wettest winter on record.

You start to wonder what next is going to fall next? Are we going to have an extended period where the weather is just close to the norm, some ups and downs but not to the extremes of late.

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As a very loose analogy, the weather seems to act like a pendulum, in that a greater push in one direction often corresponds to a greater return in the other.

Unfortunately, that pendulum has an incomprehensible number of hinges, leading to chaotic behaviour that rarely ever brings a nice balance to a given location over anything less than very long periods of time.

Google 'complex pendulum' and with any luck you'll find an example somewhere (I've not been lucky there...)

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Fantastic set of stats and many thanks Kev!

Since 1st Jan 2006 to date its almost as if the weather patterns are bouncing from one extreme to another.The things that stand out for me are the number of top 10 warmest and wettest months/seasons.

We have,especially, had a lot of warm autumns and are long overdue a cold september/october,will it be this year?

It would not suprise me at all if off the back of this mild winter we have a summer up there with 1976/1995.Its noteable that all the above average temperature wise/hot summers since 1975 have all followed mild winters.