Good morning everyone. A new week a new dawn but the same old? Read on for the latest look at the outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 3rd 2014.
All models show a continuation of very unsettled and often windy weather this week as several or as many as three separate Low pressure areas are likely to affect us this week. The first today and tonight will bring a band of heavy rain slowly East to reach the East tonight followed by showers. The second will hit the SW tomorrow afternoon and sweep rain and gales NE over all areas again followed by showers. In the South there may be a further spell of rain as a small Low crosses East just to the South while the weekend returns more wind and gales as a new large Low spreads further gales and rain over the UK for next weekend. Temperatures will often be close to average but it may feel rather chilly at times.
GFS changes nothing through the lower resolution portion of it's run with further rain and strong winds at times in winds from between South and West before they turn Northerly late in the run as a temporary feature.
The GFS Ensembles maintain the pattern as before wind wild and wet weather at times as winds remain strong and from the West or SW with Atlantic Low pressure delivering rain and strong winds to all areas all too frequently.
UKMO today shows the end of next weekend as very windy with a deep Low over Scotland next Sunday with gale force westerly winds driving showers and longer spells of rain Eastwards very quickly in the flow. Some of the showers could fall as snow on northern hills.
GEM is very similar next weekend, spiraling up yet more depressions to the NW and West in the early days of the following week with strong Westerly winds backing Southerly ahead of more frontal rain especially in the West long before the end of the run.
NAVGEM shows a Low pressure complex over and around the British Isles towards the end of it's run with rain and showers scattered about nationwide with winds somewhat lighter due to the slacker nature of isobars but still biased towards the west and SW.
ECM today also shows a similar setup with deep Low pressure over Scotland at the end of next weekend followed by further depressions lined up over the Atlantic each bringing their attendant bad weather especially towards the West and SW.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the continuing theme of Low pressure to the WNW of the UK and a broad and unstable WSW flow likely to lie across the British Isles with showers or longer spells of rain across all areas with relatively mild SW winds.
The Jet Stream continues unabated in it's path across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France for the foreseeable future.
In Summary it's more of the same this morning with all models continuing to programme the theme of unsettled and often wet and windy weather throughout their outputs. Differences between the models are shown but the overall message indicated by the models today is still a very Atlantic based and windy WSW pattern for some considerable time yet.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset