http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn784.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn844.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn904.png

Shows the rain quite well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

Some might be pleased with the Valentines day temps but the rain is another matter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2644.png

Another GFS run of flooding misery

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020312/192-777.GIF?03-12

and at the very end of the run all the cold air bottled up and inaccessible over the pole, with none of note in Europe

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020312/gfsnh-1-384.png?12

Dire indeed

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

ECM 12z has it further north still.

So an upgrade in terms of rainfall tonight!

I nearly fell of my chair upon seeing the 12z GFS op run, and for a very different reason to the usual!

Focusing on the areas that look to recieve the highest values - the S-Central and SW regions:

First up, we have Tuesday's fairly active frontal system being followed by rapid and intense convective showers on Wednesday, driving well inland on very strong winds and supported by a fair bit of CAPE - conditions could become atrocious in the downpours. Going by what EURO-4 and WRF come up with, GFS looks to be killing off the convection too quickly as it runs inland. WRF delivers close to 30mm widely from the event as a whole (accounting for 2-5mm from the rain from today into tomorrow):

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014020312/nmm-25-48-0.png?03-17

...and EURO-4 is close to that, but with the 30mm values not extending quite so far inland.

The Met Office warnings speak of 20-30mm in 24 hours, with as much as 40mm over SW'rn hills, so it looks like their data supports WRF and to some extent EURO-4 over GFS.

Then, we have that 'swooping' system for Thursday into Friday, which is now being moved along more slowly by GFS, so engaging with the jet stream more effectively, so enabling it to track further north and cross the south, bringing 20-25mm widely (I actually think that's underdone given how much moisture would be wrapped up in that system).

WRF is bringing that system in too based on where it's at by +72 hours - both models have made major adjustments since their 00z runs.

After that one comes the weekend rain - mostly on Saturday from another active frontal system, delivering 14-15mm widely. By the end of that, the accumulations from 12z today look like this on the GFS 12z op run:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020312/132-777UK.GIF?03-12

...which is potentially a little on the low side, depending on the convective element discussed earlier. Notice how little the NE regions of England and Scotland recieve by comparison - they might as well be on another continent! At this rate everyone will be forced to move there 

Now then - what about the phenominal setup progged by GFS for 7-8 days time which has persisted from the 06z to the 12z...? Well, that's about as bad as it gets really - moisture is scooped up from very far south, but instead of getting wrapped up into one dominant low, there's a whole load of smaller features competing for the goods - which leads to huge masses of rainfall with embedded waves and considerable convective potential at times too.

By 192 hours, before that event is even finished with us, the totals look like this:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020312/192-777UK.GIF?03-12

...which is just shocking, really. Factoring in convective underestimation and I reckon you're looking at over 100mm in that 8 day period across most of Wales, the SW and the Solent, with 70-80mm extending as far inland as Oxford and as far east as Dover. Based on past experience - chaining convection and the like - local totals on windward hill slopes could be in the order of 150mm or so.

ECM has less of a ridge acros Europe from day 7, which means that the troughing moves across the UK with greater ease and doesn't scoop up anywhere near as much of that airmass of relatively high 850's and moisture content - we stay on the cool side of things, but still have multiple disturbances to contend with, each bringing a period of moderate rain, with convevtion possible in between.

By way of, ahem, 'balance with GFS', the model then shows more of a disrupted trough for day 10 than GFS, which would mean a slower moving frontal system and hence a larger amount of precipitation.

So yeah... wetter than an otters pocket doesn't even do justice to the current model output  

I'm suprised no one has mentioned the ECMWF which over the last few days has trended towards a shallow, but rather expansive greenland high. 

Good post Stormchaser, thank you. 

Aside from what looks like more inevitable flooding in the south, I can see no end to the (record breaking) snowfall over the Scottish hills.  

What a winter....

Excellent and informative post.

Not much else I can say really after reading that lot.

Isn't one of the proposed triggers for ice ages that a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean leads to increased atmospheric moisture and hence winter snowfall at high latitudes leading to an excess winter snow accumulation over summer melt over high ground. Ice ages don't start from dustings south of the M4. Watch out for those glaciers grinding their way down the Scottish glens

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from today Monday February 3rd 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a very unsettled week and weekend to come as powerful depression ride on the back of a very active Jet flow crossing the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. There will be several periods of worrying weather for those areas already afflicted by floods with Wednesday, late Thursday and probably Saturday looking likely to produce disruptive rainfall and/or strong winds. In between these periods of deep Low pressures moving up from the SW will be fresher but still strong Westerly winds and heavy showers rattling through then too.

GFS then shows next week as being equally disturbed with further strong winds and heavy rain at times as further Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and the UK in temperatures close to average.

The GFS Ensembles show the unsettled and often wet pattern maintained in temperatures close to or somewhat above average at times especially in the South. With accompanying strong winds at times will mean any mildness is tempered in the way things feel.

UKMO shows Low pressure close to Northern Scotland next Sunday with a strong Westerly flow across the UK with heavy showers rushing East in average temperatures feeling rather cold.

GEM is very disturbed with Low pressure close to or over the United Kingdom with gales and spells of heavy rain and showers continuing over all areas at times.

NAVGEM closes its run showing Low pressure just to the NE of Scotland with showers in many places, more especially towards the West and temperatures never look like straying far from the seasonal average.

ECM is totally unrelenting tonight in bringing in Low pressure after Low pressure across the UK with their seemingly never ending conveyor belts of rain followed by showers win strong to gale wind at times and temperatures close to average.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart gives us a strong clue to where ECM Ensembles lie tonight towards the end of it's run and it remains not good news for those hoping for something drier as both days show the UK influenced by Low pressure most likely just to the West of Scotland with a SW flow across the UK with further rain or showers, heavy and prolonged at times in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows the unrelenting passage of winds strengthening further over the next week and maintaining it's course towards France and being a catalyst to powerful depressions developing over the Atlantic and crashing into the UK.

In Summary the pattern remains locked in it's current very volatile state with further spells of disruptive rainfall along with high winds giving their own problems at times. With very little evidence of any ridges of High pressure of note then we can't expect anymore than brief drier interludes before the next storm system rattles in. There is no doubt that further flooding and weather disruption in general will be making the headlines over the coming two weeks.

OK, I am sick of all this pessimism.

I think ECM has picked up on a major pattern change with massive implications.

The chart at +240 shows the Arctic High ridging into Scandy and cold easterlies on its southern flank pushing into northern Scotland, the following days will see this Arctic High ridge into Greenland pushing the depression track into the English Channel opening the door for very cold continental air to sweep across the UK.

The evolution will be similar to late December 1978.

Am I serious? What do you think

Andy

Indeed. Given what we've had over the past 7 weeks, and what is being shown by the current model output for the coming couple of weeks or so, I don't think many will be at all sorry to see the back of this "winter". A total disaster.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn424.png

Heavy rain crossing on Wednesday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn724.png

And across the South on Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

And again on Saturday morning

EDIT

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1624.png

And more moving in on Monday

wet wet wet said Marti

I know you're not being entirely serious but it will be interesting to see how much of this mammoth snowfall survives through the summer. If we were to get a fairly HP-dominated summer (rain melts snow far more efficiently than warm dry weather of course) then we could have a bit of multi-year snowpack next winter away from the usual perennial patches.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

So here's the map for the 12z GFS op run - looks dire with near 100mm across much of the S-Central and SW regions.

...but here's something interesting; that total is shown to be somewhere between 300 and 400% of the norm for the 8 day period... which is a vast amount, but if, for example, you take the average monthly rainfall for my home region, which is 53mm, and find a LTA for 8 days of the month by dividing by 4 in this case, you get 13.25mm.

The GFS 12z op run had 95mm over my home location. Going by the above, that's not 300-400% of the norm, that's 717% of the norm! 

So what gives? Well, what seems the most likely possibility is that they generate figures from daily records, with unequal rainfall averages each week, and a larger proportion of the rain falling in the first week.

For 95mm to be 300% of the norm, the LTA for the 8 day period needs to be 31.7mm... more than half of the month's rainfall. For 400%, it's 23.8mm... a bit more reasonable.

Something tells me I need to tell my brain to wind down for a bit... 

WOW Quiet here since 11pm, I guess that tells it's own story?

Don't give up guys, love reading all your views even if its the same old same old

Thank you for taking time out to share with us all

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020400/ECH1-240.GIF?04-12

ECM trying to kid us again with HP to the East

Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday February 4th 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models continue to paint a very disturbed period for the remainder of this week and the weekend for all areas as the never ending train of Low pressure crashing into the UK from the Atlantic continues. Today will see the first of these move up from the SW, deepening rapidly and bringing severe gales as well as heavy rain followed by showers though tonight and tomorrow. As this then moves slowly away North on Thursday a small but vigorous Low now looks like affecting the south later on Thursday and Thursday night with further heavy rain and gales in the SE before Friday sees yet another powerful depression move in from the SW to affect all areas over the weekend with further rain and gales for all over the weekend.

GFS then shows next week with very little improvements as further Low pressure moves up from the West or SW regularly with further rain and showers and strong winds. It may not turn out quite as wet though with some brighter intervals at times and there may be somewhat less wind too but it is unlikely that there will be any sustained dry and bright weather I'm afraid.

The GFS Ensembles remain very disturbed this morning with most if not all members showing a sustained period of rain and wind continuing in broadly West or SW winds around Low pressure areas moving in from the West throughout. Temperatures are likely to remain broadly close to average over the UK.

UKMO this morning starts next week with a deep low pressure area to the North of Scotland with a broad Westerly flow across the UK carrying blustery showers across the UK next Monday with the potential for further more prolonged rainfall looking likely too from the West over following days.

GEM in it's latter stages keep the UK under attack from multi centre low pressure areas keeping the trend for further spells of rain and showers, heavy at times very much alive next week too with average temperatures overall.

NAVGEM also shows a broad westerly flow to start next week with winds backing SW at the end of the run as something of a weak ridge dampens down some of the rain by Tuesday as a  weak ridge moves across from the West.

ECM is again unrelenting in it's prognosis of further deep Low pressure well in control of the UK weather next week too ending with Low pressure still sweeping onto the SW from the Atlantic with further gales and rain sweeping into the UK next Friday.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts remain unchanged in their prognosis that the likelihood of our weather will still be governed by Low pressure centred over or to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 Days time with further copious periods of rain and showers likely for all in winds between South and West and average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream remains one of the factors giving rise to such disturbed UK weather as it continues to blow very strongly over the Atlantic towards France and Southern Britain with little reliable indications supporting any major pattern change shown once more today.

In Summary today the weather remains extremely and exceptionally unsettled. For me it's the longest and most volatile Atlantic period of weather that I can ever remember and it is still looking relentless over all output issued this morning covering the next few weeks. So as a result I can only predict more rain, gales and flooding disruption to be expected over the next week or two with only very short drier interludes at times. The NE will probably see the best of these with the heaviest rains and flooding issues again most likely in the Southwest adjacent to the strong and disruptive SW winds at times. Temperatures overall will be close to average but there will be some colder slots in between the depressions when the showers could contain snow over the hills.