Just a question (and this is model output related) but whenever I view the GFS precipitation in weatheronline.co.uk, I noticed it tend to "ramp up" the rainfall on the fourth day of the run and then is slightly toned down in the next run but continue to look overdone after the fourth day anyway. Is that normal for GFS?
 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Yes looking very wet later on Thursday and into early Friday.

Very unsettled outlook thats for sure and into FI and beyond.

528 line is way south in the Atlantic on that fax chart. The southerly extent of Artic air has been impressive - unfortunately for the UK, it has been too far to the west to properly influence us, apart from generating cold rain that is.

Yep. I have been looking at this too and it is the Atlantic gulf stream that keeps us from freezing over. We not only have the 528 line migrating way South but also the 510 yet the temps off our shores are around 10 degrees. A great example of the warm Atlantic modifying our weather.

Very interesting airmass update from NAEFS (finally!).

This one looks markadely different from many of the past few ones I have done. Instead of being rmP dominated, this update has cP right across the UK with a snowy frontal zone being indicated. Hints of some energy going south into Europe too, with a messy picture further south. The arctic airmass is also the most south it has ever been, in southern norway; a fingernail away. 

The pacific side by contrast, is still pretty much identical to what it has been over the last few days. 

Thanks Q

Certainly some signs of a change in the far reaches of the MO, with the jet edging south and pressure rising to the north. No agreement in detail yet, but the hints are there.

Well the CET variance from the start of December to the end january is around +2c which put it in the mild category.Feb if the METO and the models are  to be believed,will be close to normal.

agree with others on here.  Certainly something brewing to our north.  a very flat picture from next Monday onwards.  Whats encouraging is these signs have been stronger on every of the past 3-4 runs.  with the current run establishing the start of a Greenland high with energy moving south.

roll onthe 12z suite.

There is "mild" and "mild though - a lot depends on the diurnal range. Clear dry weather can give warmish weather during the day under the winter sun, even if the nights are cool. The reason the UK is showing "mild" for the last two months is, in my view, because the temperature has rarely dropped at night, due to the wind and cloud cover, so even though the days have not been particularly warm for the time of year, the nights have been.

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

The Deluge Goes On (Part Two)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

More flooding rain's to come during the next week to ten days.

Cheers Gavin