Ah. The models tripped up on that one... data suggests at least 8mm collected at home from today's slow moving frontal system, as opposed to 1-2mm as per EURO-4 (which appears to have underestimated the eastward progression) or 3mm from GFS (which just killed it off too quickly from the looks of things).
Admittedly I'm using an estimate for the accumulation based on my home gauge being under 2-4mm rain rates for four hours (actual figures come though every 6 hours), but it ought to be a good one provided the radar data is reasonably accurate.
The model output was all pointing towards a rapid demise of the frontal rainfall this evening, but that doesn't seem to have occured for whatever reason.
The updated Met Office precipitation charts now keep some moderate precipitation along the front for quite a bit longer and some way further inland than previously.
These sort of poorly predicted rainfall events seem to turn up once or twice a month on average - I wonder what it is that makes these particular ones so tricky for the models?
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