theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2014 16:52:04
I know there has been some talk of rogue waves causing most of the damage well it certainly looks like it from these two videos.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26062343 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26065858 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
06 February 2014 16:55:39

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar


Fantastic satellite and radar image shows bout two gathering over Biscay and arrowing into the channel.


Ominous.


Sandbags ready to deploy at least...


 


WI

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Polar Low
06 February 2014 17:14:32


Initial reports suggested that a wave as high as 75ft (22m) had been recorded. But even if it had been true, it wouldn't have been one specific wave, as one might imagine it. "[Waverider buoys] don't aspire to measure individual waves, they aspire to take a sensible average of three-wave parcels


Thats Hurracane swell  at least for a time anyway.


 


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26065858 

Charmhills
06 February 2014 17:20:37

Light rain mianly so far with just 3mms.


Not the washout yet!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
06 February 2014 17:24:46

Gatzen takes the chair his thoughts


 


Bay of Biscay, western France, southern British Isles

A plume of warm and moist Atlantic air spreads north-eastward into western and central Europe ahead of an intense surface low. Latest La Coruna sounding indicates a deep moist layer with 7 g/kg mixing ratio up to 800 hPa and moist adiabatic lapse rates between 850 and 650 hPa. During the noon and afternoon hours, a strong mid-level jet streak will approach from the west ahead of a progressing short-wave trough. Q vectors indicate strong QG forcing in the range of this jet streak that affects the Bay of Biscay and the British Isles today. This may lead to slightly steeper lapse rates and CAPE will likely evolve.

Latest satellite imagery indicates a narrow cold frontal rain band at the western flank of the warm sector. Lightning activity is present even in the warm sector across the western Bay of Biscay. Current thinking is that deep moist convection will become more organized during the late morning hours along the cold frontal rain band due to the increasing QG forcing. A narrow convective line is expected that spreads north-east across the Bay of Biscay into the British Isles. Western France and the western North Sea may be also affected.

Strong low-level vertical wind shear in excess of 15 m/s in the lowest km is present and intense up- and downdrafts are expected, leading to a cold pool moving north-east. This will increase the potential of severe wind gusts of the convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out along and ahead of the convective line given the favourable low-level veering (0-1 km SRH 100 m²/s²) and associated potential of mesocyclones.

Main reason to issue a level 1 rather than level 2 is that relatively weak low-level winds (around 20 to 25 m/s at 850 hPa) are expected along the convective line. However, a widespread wind event is not rules out, though. Severe threat will decrease in the afternoon hours when the line moves on over England, where low-level moisture is limited. Nonetheless, tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out until the evening.

In the wake of the convection, a high wind event is expected to spread across the Bay of Biscay and France, reaching the Benelux countries in the morning hours. Contribution of deep moist convection is expected to be weak as models predict weak lapse rates and low-level convergence, so that a threat level is not issued for this wind event.


 

Polar Low
06 February 2014 17:40:10

a lot of rain for the s/e corner in the next 24 hours from euro 4


Best of luck with that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 


 


 


 


 


http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar


Fantastic satellite and radar image shows bout two gathering over Biscay and arrowing into the channel.


Ominous.


Sandbags ready to deploy at least...


 


WI


ozone_aurora
06 February 2014 17:47:44

Heavy rain and SE gales here at the moment!

Nordic Snowman
06 February 2014 19:20:07

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.gif


I'd say Sat storm is slowly downgrading. Gusts around 70mph S Ireland, SW Eng but elsewhere, closer to 50-60mph i.e a regular wet/windy system.


Once the rain band clears, it should become dry for many C and E areas:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn484.gif


 


It will probably just be a wet night, brightening skies, drier C and E areas with scattered showers W and N. Blowy and gusty but certainly nothing too out of the ordinary... IMHO and based on what I am seeing.


Of course, flooding is the issue on the saturated ground but in its own right, it seems like a regular wet/windy system. The problems appear to be the cumulative effect of the frequency of Lows. From a weather 'excitement' p.o.v (as an enthusiast), it seems to be vastly overhyped. The worst hit areas will sadly suffer the most i.e SW. The rest of us will get off quite lightly and no doubt, some of us, will be left wondering what all the fuss was about....

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Jive Buddy
06 February 2014 19:29:59

Things have changed somewhat over here - we're now mobilised tomorrow, to Bridge, nr Canterbury, to help flood victims. Gotta be up and ready to go by 7:15am. Should be an interesting day, to say the least!


I've walked to Ramsgate and back today, and everywhere you look it's just water (apart from the sea, obviously 😉. On the way there, I saw the Ramsgate Lifeboat returning. Probably one of many shouts in the last/next few days I should imagine.


 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Richard K
06 February 2014 19:41:27
...so the land is more watery than the sea??
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Polar Low
06 February 2014 19:53:12

intresting cell developent in Wales over the last hour or so thats is hammering it down


http://www.raintoday.co.uk/


 


 

NickR
06 February 2014 20:10:38


Things have changed somewhat over here - we're now mobilised tomorrow, to Bridge, nr Canterbury, to help flood victims. Gotta be up and ready to go by 7:15am. Should be an interesting day, to say the least!


I've walked to Ramsgate and back today, and everywhere you look it's just water (apart from the sea, obviously 😉. On the way there, I saw the Ramsgate Lifeboat returning. Probably one of many shouts in the last/next few days I should imagine.


 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Bridge is near to my folks (yhey're in Womeswold) - they often go down the Duke's Head for a meal.. how is that part looking??

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
squish
06 February 2014 20:30:04
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif 

Sunday's meto FAX looks a bit ominous for southern districts. Another spell of wet and windy weather sunday night (in an already stormy weekend picture) but with some quite cold air wrapped up in the system . Thats all before the potential 'wintry' storm on Tuesday.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2014 20:32:23
Some more incredible waves some look like tsunamis. Think we were lucky no one got killed!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26070143 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
stophe
06 February 2014 20:39:47
10mm so far from this event.
nsrobins
06 February 2014 20:52:08

Any reports from Pembrokeshire? That was quite a long-lived extreme area of ppn over that area in the last hour or so.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
NickR
06 February 2014 20:54:07
Dry all day and now some light mizzle up here... it's another world! We've only had 65mm so far this year!
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Hippydave
06 February 2014 21:28:20

Cycled back from work (Sevenoaks) via the lanes and through the Medway Valley tonight - localised flooding all over the place with extensive run off from the fields. Pretty much all the drainage ditches were full and the road over Hartlake Bridge nr Golden Green flooded to about 1.5feet or so (or just a little below my knees on the bike). Most cars didn't risk going through although clearly one person had tried and had to abandon the car.


Few more localised bits of flooding further on including around a fortunately small scale flood of around 2 foot underneath the Paddock Wood line rail bridge and a smaller flood near the Dovecote in Tudeley.


According to the rain gauge at home we've had about 16mm today - so wet but not biblical, just shows how much water is in the system already. With further rain to come and more looking likely next week I suspect they'll be further localised flooding issues for a while yet.


 Edit: The current River levels for the Medway aren't that bad where I ent through, although expect them to shoot up a fair bit. It's the run off from the fields in to the already full ditches that's causing the flooding at the moment. With there being no where for the water to go really it's just spilling out all over the place.


http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/136485.aspx?stationId=1074

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Global Warming
06 February 2014 21:32:48

The Environment Agency has issued 13 new flood warnings in the south-east since 7pm this evening. This includes 2 warnings that cover Gatwick Airport (the River Mole and Gatwick stream). Lets hope we don't see a repeat of the flooding before Christmas at the airport which caused chaos.

ITSY
06 February 2014 21:32:58

only about 10-15mms so far but once again seen surface run off into the garden from neighouring fields, rising our "draining ditch" from an inch to 6 inches within a couple of hours. With another 10mms easily tonight, plus the rain on saturday, and then the feature on the fax for sunday, our relatively dry area of the country is gonna be drowning!

Global Warming
06 February 2014 21:44:27

Some amazing stats from the Met Office here


http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/uks-exceptional-weather-in-context/


In southeast and central southern England, Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 was the wettest any 2 month period in a series going back to 1910. In this region it is probably the most exceptional period of winter rainfall in at least 248 years.


From 12 Dec to 31 Jan parts of southern England saw 5 months worth of rainfall.

Jive Buddy
06 February 2014 22:38:35



Things have changed somewhat over here - we're now mobilised tomorrow, to Bridge, nr Canterbury, to help flood victims. Gotta be up and ready to go by 7:15am. Should be an interesting day, to say the least!


I've walked to Ramsgate and back today, and everywhere you look it's just water (apart from the sea, obviously 😉. On the way there, I saw the Ramsgate Lifeboat returning. Probably one of many shouts in the last/next few days I should imagine.


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Bridge is near to my folks (yhey're in Womeswold) - they often go down the Duke's Head for a meal.. how is that part looking??


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


I'll give an update tomorrow if I can - going by reports so far, it looks like we'll be in the Barham area to help residents affected by the river Nailbourne. Not sure if I'll be able to get online when out tomorrow, but will try and tweet/fb updates if I can, that someone may be able to relay back to here.

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
NickR
06 February 2014 22:43:25




Things have changed somewhat over here - we're now mobilised tomorrow, to Bridge, nr Canterbury, to help flood victims. Gotta be up and ready to go by 7:15am. Should be an interesting day, to say the least!


I've walked to Ramsgate and back today, and everywhere you look it's just water (apart from the sea, obviously 😉. On the way there, I saw the Ramsgate Lifeboat returning. Probably one of many shouts in the last/next few days I should imagine.


 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Bridge is near to my folks (yhey're in Womeswold) - they often go down the Duke's Head for a meal.. how is that part looking??


Originally Posted by: NickR 


I'll give an update tomorrow if I can - going by reports so far, it looks like we'll be in the Barham area to help residents affected by the river Nailbourne. Not sure if I'll be able to get online when out tomorrow, but will try and tweet/fb updates if I can, that someone may be able to relay back to here.


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Cheers! I think the Duke is in Barham, not Bridge. Just glad they're up high on the N Downs.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
06 February 2014 22:48:21
Very nearly an inch so far today here. 0.92 in fact. It seems to me that things are going to elevate to a whole new level of seriousness should the weekend's weather pan out as forecast

https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Gooner
06 February 2014 23:19:26

Radar shows an intense area of rain heading for MBY, local rivers were at tipping point this morning god only knows what they will be like in the morning

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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