theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 February 2014 21:37:45

I know this is very early, but I'm really starting to get fed up of mild and wet weather, and I know everyone else is. We arn't likely to see a pattern change until mid month, so there has to be something to look forward to other than rain and flooding.


The answer is the snow event on monday and tuesday. For most areas the big event will be on tuesday, a very active occluding front will cross the country east to west. Parts of Northern ireland, NW england and NE england are at risk, with some models predicting as much as 10cm, and the ECM is no different. The southern extent of the snow is likely to be the north midlands where accumulations are unlikely, but in Northern ireland and NW england in particular (aswell as scotland of course) snow could fall widely to low levels, although it will be a rain to snow event for most places. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2014 21:55:15

Hmm, you may well be right about this because I'm off to Lanzarote on Sunday and it's bound to snow while I'm away. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gooner
07 February 2014 22:38:01

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/02/07/basis18/ukuk/rart/14021112_2_0718.gif


J F F  Shows what Q is talking about

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SEMerc
07 February 2014 22:40:22


I know this is very early, but I'm really starting to get fed up of mild and wet weather, and I know everyone else is. We arn't likely to see a pattern change until mid month, so there has to be something to look forward to other than rain and flooding.


The answer is the snow event on monday and tuesday. For most areas the big event will be on tuesday, a very active occluding front will cross the country east to west. Parts of Northern ireland, NW england and NE england are at risk, with some models predicting as much as 10cm, and the ECM is no different. The southern extent of the snow is likely to be the north midlands where accumulations are unlikely, but in Northern ireland and NW england in particular (aswell as scotland of course) snow could fall widely to low levels, although it will be a rain to snow event for most places. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


So basically, for the South, it will be the same unremitting sh it that has been seen all autumn. I won't call it winter.

Andy Woodcock
07 February 2014 23:03:09
TBH I still think it will be a snow to rain event away from the Scottish Highlands and talk of 10cms in Northern England is boll*cks in my opinion as milder air behind the occlusion will rush in.

Yes a wintry afternoon on Tuesday maybe but if I lived in the south I would not be jealous.

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 February 2014 23:18:27

TBH I still think it will be a snow to rain event away from the Scottish Highlands and talk of 10cms in Northern England is boll*cks in my opinion as milder air behind the occlusion will rush in.

Yes a wintry afternoon on Tuesday maybe but if I lived in the south I would not be jealous.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


There is no milder air behind this occlusion, the air behind will be capable of sustaining snow showers in N ireland for a further 12 hours at least. If anything it will be a rain to snow event rather than the reverse; and yes 10cm is possible, though is an upper estimate. Warm occluded fronts are fully capable of producing entirely snow events even with uppers of about -3C, and low humidity on the leading edge ensures any snow settles more readily from other sources such as the lake effect or cold fronts. The front is only unusual in the sense that there is unusually cold air coming in behind it, despite the fact we have a warm occlusion rather than a cold occlusion. There is scope for change on the models, but I would call this a potentially disruptive event for the north. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
07 February 2014 23:28:07


TBH I still think it will be a snow to rain event away from the Scottish Highlands and talk of 10cms in Northern England is boll*cks in my opinion as milder air behind the occlusion will rush in.

Yes a wintry afternoon on Tuesday maybe but if I lived in the south I would not be jealous.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


There is no milder air behind this occlusion, the air behind will be capable of sustaining snow showers in N ireland for a further 12 hours at least. If anything it will be a rain to snow event rather than the reverse; and yes 10cm is possible, though is an upper estimate. Warm occluded fronts are fully capable of producing entirely snow events even with uppers of about -3C, and low humidity on the leading edge ensures any snow settles more readily from other sources such as the lake effect or cold fronts. The front is only unusual in the sense that there is unusually cold air coming in behind it, despite the fact we have a warm occlusion rather than a cold occlusion. There is scope for change on the models, but I would call this a potentially disruptive event for the north. 


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn903.gif


As Q says not much in the way of mild air following on

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 February 2014 23:36:33



TBH I still think it will be a snow to rain event away from the Scottish Highlands and talk of 10cms in Northern England is boll*cks in my opinion as milder air behind the occlusion will rush in.

Yes a wintry afternoon on Tuesday maybe but if I lived in the south I would not be jealous.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


There is no milder air behind this occlusion, the air behind will be capable of sustaining snow showers in N ireland for a further 12 hours at least. If anything it will be a rain to snow event rather than the reverse; and yes 10cm is possible, though is an upper estimate. Warm occluded fronts are fully capable of producing entirely snow events even with uppers of about -3C, and low humidity on the leading edge ensures any snow settles more readily from other sources such as the lake effect or cold fronts. The front is only unusual in the sense that there is unusually cold air coming in behind it, despite the fact we have a warm occlusion rather than a cold occlusion. There is scope for change on the models, but I would call this a potentially disruptive event for the north. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn903.gif


As Q says not much in the way of mild air following on


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


As it stands it could even be a snow-rain-snow event. Though to be honest the more I look at this, the more I think that carlisle northwards will see just snow, some rain further south but also snow north of say sheffield. The whole of ireland is likely to see some snow, but especially the north; and some wet snow and sleetiness getting into wales too. Favoured spots could indeed see up to 10cm, with 2-5cm generally even to lower levels (in the north). That said, it is marginal and a single degree milder could tip the balance in favour of rain; so this could all dissapear by tuesday, but as it looks now white not wet, unless you are in the south in which case never mind. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 February 2014 23:41:37

GFS HD really shows the extent of the snow, as the cold air diggs in behind


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020718/90-779UK.GIF?07-18


Dew points are sub zero, and wet bulbs are close to zero, meaning that this is accumulating snow. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2014 08:51:23

I note that the snow content of this event is being more and more restricted to the north by successive model runs. In my book, a shift like this indicates that the trend will continue, and we will probably end up withsnow for Scotland and just the highest ground in England and Wales.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
08 February 2014 08:57:58

I note that the snow content of this event is being more and more restricted to the north by successive model runs. In my book, a shift like this indicates that the trend will continue, and we will probably end up withsnow for Scotland and just the highest ground in England and Wales.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I'd be tempted to suggest just more of the same with only a few exceptions i.e. snow largely restricted to higher ground in northern parts with a few areas getting a wintry mix.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
08 February 2014 09:20:41
GFS is also giving a chance of snow for more southern areas on Tuesday night. Although so far I have had snow hatching over my area from GFS in high-res maybe 5 or 6 times and none of them has resulted in so much as a splodge of sleet!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Andy Woodcock
08 February 2014 09:32:55

GFS is also giving a chance of snow for more southern areas on Tuesday night. Although so far I have had snow hatching over my area from GFS in high-res maybe 5 or 6 times and none of them has resulted in so much as a splodge of sleet!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Exactly, so many times this winter I have been promised at least some snow only to see cold rain and the odd blob of sleet.

It reminds me of an old girlfriend of mine who would flash her knickers but you never got to see the real thing.

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
ITSY
08 February 2014 10:34:07

The 06Z makes Tuesday a Snow event for most

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 February 2014 11:06:37

Note this event is much less marginal than previous ones, there is scope for a slight warm up and still snow to fall. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nickl
08 February 2014 11:14:03

GFS is also giving a chance of snow for more southern areas on Tuesday night. Although so far I have had snow hatching over my area from GFS in high-res maybe 5 or 6 times and none of them has resulted in so much as a splodge of sleet!

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 



Exactly, so many times this winter I have been promised at least some snow only to see cold rain and the odd blob of sleet.

It reminds me of an old girlfriend of mine who would flash her knickers but you never got to see the real thing.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


presumably thats why she became an 'ex' girlfriend !   i think this is one for the hills though perhaps as far south as the chilterns and cotswolds though unlikely to settle south of the midlands.


of course, the system is still not well modelled so could be some substantial changes in either direction.

tallyho_83
08 February 2014 11:19:02
Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
08 February 2014 11:30:06


The 06Z makes Tuesday a Snow event for most


Originally Posted by: ITSY 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/02/08/basis06/ukuk/rart/14021118_2_0806.gif


J F F  Certainly does


But NO mention from the Met

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
08 February 2014 11:31:12

Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Osprey
08 February 2014 11:33:29


Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


IIRC March 2006 was snow

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Arcus
08 February 2014 11:48:12



Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


IIRC March 2006 was snow


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Easter 2008 (23rd March) saw 10cm of snow lying here.


And as the oft quoted stat says, UK is more likely to see snow at Easter than at Christmas.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Retron
08 February 2014 12:01:36


Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Depends on where you are, surely? March snow is very rare IMBY and April snow here is exceptionally rare. As Tally is in Devon I'd imagine it'll be similar down there.


Although snowfall on Christmas Day is exceptionally rare here, snow in the few days after Christmas isn't - it happens 2 or 3 times a decade on average. Snowfall around Easter is much rarer - in my lifetime it happened apparently in the early 80s and since then it hasn't happened here at all.


FWIW, the ECM this morning shows some snow on Tuesday evening across parts of southern England although it doesn't reach my part of Kent.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Osprey
08 February 2014 12:18:30



Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Depends on where you are, surely? March snow is very rare IMBY and April snow here is exceptionally rare. As Tally is in Devon I'd imagine it'll be similar down there.


FWIW, the ECM this morning shows some snow on Tuesday evening across parts of southern England although it doesn't reach my part of Kent.


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I thought Tally meant generally "our" only chance for snow. Having said this around winter 2006 there was snow as far south as Bristol, we drove down to Torquay and it was balmy, quite warm and many were walking around in shorts

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Snow Hoper
08 February 2014 12:22:24



Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Depends on where you are, surely? March snow is very rare IMBY and April snow here is exceptionally rare. As Tally is in Devon I'd imagine it'll be similar down there.


Although snowfall on Christmas Day is exceptionally rare here, snow in the few days after Christmas isn't - it happens 2 or 3 times a decade on average. Snowfall around Easter is much rarer - in my lifetime it happened apparently in the early 80s and since then it hasn't happened here at all.


FWIW, the ECM this morning shows some snow on Tuesday evening across parts of southern England although it doesn't reach my part of Kent.


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Easter 2008 had 4" of snow at sea level in Great Yarmouth. Tbh we could do without it given the state of the country right now.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Whether Idle
08 February 2014 14:22:34



Tuesday will be our only chance, if not then we are really in Extra time!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140208/06/81/prectypeuktopo.png

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Tally


It certainly isnt uncommon for March to produce Snow


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Depends on where you are, surely? March snow is very rare IMBY and April snow here is exceptionally rare. As Tally is in Devon I'd imagine it'll be similar down there.


Although snowfall on Christmas Day is exceptionally rare here, snow in the few days after Christmas isn't - it happens 2 or 3 times a decade on average. Snowfall around Easter is much rarer - in my lifetime it happened apparently in the early 80s and since then it hasn't happened here at all.


FWIW, the ECM this morning shows some snow on Tuesday evening across parts of southern England although it doesn't reach my part of Kent.


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Snow on the ground is more common at Easter than Christmas.  We have had laying snow IMBY on the south coast at Easter  in 2008 and 2013.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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