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Andy Woodcock
08 February 2014 17:09:06

You always know when a winter is desperate because posters on TWO go on about how it can snow in March and April!


Yes it can but very rarely does it lay for long.


Last March I had 7cms of dry powdery snow falling at a temperature of -6c, but a few hours of afternoon sun destroyed most of it despite a high of just 1.5c.


March snow is a waste of space and is no consolation for a crap winter.


As for Tuesda'sy snowfall event the MetO is having none of it, look at this Lake District forecast:


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/lakedistrict/lakedistrict_latest_pressure.html


It doesnt bode well for snow in Regents Park does it


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Whether Idle
08 February 2014 17:14:56


You always know when a winter is desperate because posters on TWO go on about how it can snow in March and April!


Yes it can but very rarely does it lay for long.


 


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Whatever.  I think the point being made is that falling snow is frequent in the spring, and sometimes it lays for a bit.


The only desperation I detect is from people who would like it to stop raining.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Andy Woodcock
08 February 2014 17:23:58

OK in the interest of balance just watch this video from last March in Cumbria, its a BBC report from the Coastal area of SW Cumbria which is normally snow free, remarkable footage and at the time my lawn just 30 miles away was green!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21910180


If I had that IMBY I probably wouldnt describe March snow as a waste of time


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Saint Snow
08 February 2014 20:59:47

Just to join in on the 'March 2013 snow', here's some of my pics:


This was the early evening of 22nd March. Look at the signs/lampost - they face pretty much east



 


Snow fell until late into the night. This is MBY on the morning of the 23rd



 


The winds were strong, coming from the east. We had some strange little snowdrifts - this one is on a flat grass verge by the side of a main road - the effect comes from the snow drifting from off the adjacent field (with my eldest daughter to help with scale ). It's about half a mile from the M62 j7



 


We went sledging nearby and, IIRC, the snow stayed on the ground a good few days


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NickR
08 February 2014 21:05:41

 Great pics, Saint. Yes, using kids for scale is a favourite way in which I put mine to good use too. 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Matty H
08 February 2014 21:47:14
I wonder if the third snow thread of the winter will actually contain reports of snow come next week 😎 it's probably got a better chance than the other two did.
Adrian W
08 February 2014 22:37:13

Snow forecast for the higher parts of Dartmoor again this Sunday and for much of the week. Last Sunday produced a couple of cm's. :-)


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/high-willhays-devon#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1391904000


 


 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 00:35:40

GFS and especially ECM want snow event tuesday, but high res WRF not buying (which is odd really, since the WRF is intillised by GFS data). 


However the WRF is on its own, the NASA GEOS5 wants a snow event (though to northern england only and not ireland) on the 12Z where it had a rain event on the 0Z. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2014 06:08:18
From the same snow event Saint Snow was referring to (1st and 2nd videos)
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Twister
09 February 2014 09:20:48

Today's SE forecast for Tuesday from the Met Office:


"Heavy rain and strong winds for a time Tuesday, followed by wintry showers."


Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 11:04:55

WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NickR
09 February 2014 11:44:40


WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Matty won't stop going on in the mods forum about how much he'd love you to produce another one of your snow-risk maps, Quantum... go on!! You know you want to! 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 11:57:00



WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Matty won't stop going on in the mods forum about how much he'd love you to produce another one of your snow-risk maps, Quantum... go on!! You know you want to! 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Exactly how much does my name get mentioned in the mods forum?


 


I will do a map if I have time,  but it will be after 7pm tonight as I base them on the 12Z suite namely the WRF, GFS HD, EURO4, ECM. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NickR
09 February 2014 12:04:32




WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Matty won't stop going on in the mods forum about how much he'd love you to produce another one of your snow-risk maps, Quantum... go on!! You know you want to! 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Exactly how much does my name get mentioned in the mods forum?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


A lot more if you don't produce one of your canny charts! Get to it, man! 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 12:25:56





WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Matty won't stop going on in the mods forum about how much he'd love you to produce another one of your snow-risk maps, Quantum... go on!! You know you want to! 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Exactly how much does my name get mentioned in the mods forum?


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


A lot more if you don't produce one of your canny charts! Get to it, man! 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If I have time I will make one of those maps (for informative or comedic purposes depending on your preferance). 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
squish
09 February 2014 12:29:25
Showers are turning to snow here this morning. No settling though.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
09 February 2014 12:37:27
Perhaps it is just based on past experiences from this winter but I would be surprised if this "event" produced much on the way of snow at lower altitudes. I'm certainly not expecting anything but a period of rain here. Perhaps for a time some areas in northern parts might see something a bit wintry but I suspect it will once again be largely higher ground in the north that will see snowfall.
Matty H
09 February 2014 13:05:04



WRF now thinking of a snow event for mainland britian (north). All models want a snow event now, especially ECM. Wonder why metoffice thinks rain? Is this the mysterious MOGREPS at work? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Matty won't stop going on in the mods forum about how much he'd love you to produce another one of your snow-risk maps, Quantum... go on!! You know you want to! 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Exactly how much does my name get mentioned in the mods forum?


 


I will do a map if I have time,  but it will be after 7pm tonight as I base them on the 12Z suite namely the WRF, GFS HD, EURO4, ECM. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




We have a thread where we discuss problem users 😟














😝

Retron
09 February 2014 13:26:00

FWIW, here's a quick map knocked up in Paint Shop Pro to show areas that the ECM says will have seen snow falling by T+96 (from 0z this morning). It's not exactly the same (as my drawing skills aren't that good) but it's close enough to give the general idea!


Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 13:38:27


FWIW, here's a quick map knocked up in Paint Shop Pro to show areas that the ECM says will have seen snow falling by T+96 (from 0z this morning). It's not exactly the same (as my drawing skills aren't that good) but it's close enough to give the general idea!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Nice!


My gut instinct is the 12Z ECM will perhaps make the snow less widespread, more in accorance with the GFS or WRF. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2014 13:53:25


FWIW, here's a quick map knocked up in Paint Shop Pro to show areas that the ECM says will have seen snow falling by T+96 (from 0z this morning). It's not exactly the same (as my drawing skills aren't that good) but it's close enough to give the general idea!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


So right down to the coast then? That's very different from the CF forecast I've just seen which mentions significant snow just in the Scottish Highlands, with a little at lower levels as well.


 


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Gooner
09 February 2014 13:54:25



FWIW, here's a quick map knocked up in Paint Shop Pro to show areas that the ECM says will have seen snow falling by T+96 (from 0z this morning). It's not exactly the same (as my drawing skills aren't that good) but it's close enough to give the general idea!


Originally Posted by: Col 


So right down to the coast then? That's very different from the CF forecast I've just seen which mentions significant snow just in the Scottish Highlands, with a little at lower levels as well.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Which is more realistic


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
09 February 2014 13:57:30

O/ T  Nina showed only a small area in Scotand getting snow..........................a blue map for most


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2014 13:58:07

Metoffice has just issued a yellow snow warning to parts of scotland 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
09 February 2014 14:22:16

Metoffice has just issued a yellow snow warning to parts of scotland 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Yes, the warning also confirms that it is expected to be a largely inland/higher ground event up here.

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