Indeed - I'm afraid common sense left the UK a number of years ago!

And if you pour more than two gallons into a empty two gallon bucket?

Anyway, you think it's simple so (presumably?) you have done the maths I wrote about above? So, how much water is there on the levels and could a dredged river have carried it away without it causing problems? I'd REALLY like to know!

Of course a river with a bigger volume can carry more water. And of course it then makes no difference how much it rains it wont flood...........???

Fine, then can you tell me the answer to the maths I mentioned above? It sounds like you know the answer?

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/14021006_0912.gif

Hmmn. EURO-4 actually delivers some hefty showers to a locallised area tonight, with somewhere around Poole recieving 16mm during the first 6 hours of tomorrow.

Comparing the radar with the projection for 6-9pm today, the showers are a little way NW of predicted so the area getting drenched could end up further inland... all presuming that the convection isn't being overcooked again, that is!

It looks confined enough to avoid notable impacts on the river levels, but it won't help the groundwater situation in the places affected.

You're the one with a problem with physics apparently.
The water would be getting away faster, if it had been done beforehand there wouldn't be 65 million gallons to remove would there.

You tell me. How much quicker? Have you done the maths or do you, somehow, that fabled common sense perhaps, just know? If common sense tells us the answers to maths problems why do we have maths?

I don't know how much effect dredging would have but I'm going to try and find out.

Looks like the Science, Climate, and Arguing the Toss forums have burst their banks.

river thames  has  paseed  its rec  lev  people  are  been told  to get ready to get  out   water  is bubbling  out  of  the  tarmac  in  places

And not the first time I've been ticked off for wanting facts to be right, hopefully it wont be the last

This is most definitely worth reading. and it will be my last word on this here - OK

Yes, currently at 1.23 metres at Chertsey, and put it in context, the highest recorded before this was 1.03 metres (it reached 1.20 during the last flood a couple of weeks ago, but that hasn't been put on the historical data yet for some reason)

I haven't had a chance to catch up with forecasts for the next 48 hours or so yet, but basically any rainfall whatsoever, no matter how light, is now extremely problematic to the villages in East Kent where I've been the last few days.

I'll try and relay what the EA say at tomorrow's briefing if I can.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx

updateing -15mins  at  the  moment

Its not good news Im afraid.  C*ntryfile showed 60mm by Friday across S and 40mm futher N.  No time for recovery, make the most of a relatively dry Monday.  Rest of the week is a wet windy washout with flooding inevitable in many areas; and the sitaution appearing to worsen towards the weekend.  About as bad as it can usually get for us Brits...

Very clever

Cheers WI...I think!

We're definitely there for Mon & Tue, and going by that, we'll be there until next week! Just checked the levels downstream, and they've dropped by a whopping 1cm all day. I'll try and get some photos up, but it's been a while since I did that on here

Try reading this, from the Met Office chief scientist:

Climate change almost certainly lies behind the storms that have been lashing Britain this winter, according to the Met Office's chief scientist.

Dame Julia Slingo said while there was not yet "definitive proof", "all the evidence" pointed to a role for the phenomenon.

She also delivered a grim warning that the country should prepare itself for more similar events in future.

The comments came at a briefing for journalists as the latest wave of storms crashed into southern England. It is the strongest link yet made by the Met Office between the intense weather and climate change, and backs David Cameron's remark last month that he "very much suspects" a connection.

New analysis published by the Met Office blames persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific for triggering the weather system.

"The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA," the document said. "These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America.

"There is a strong association with the stormy weather experienced in the UK during December and January and the up-stream perturbations to the jet stream over North America and the North Pacific.

"The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to an unusually strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which in turn has driven a very deep polar vortex and strong polar night jet."

Dame Julia said none of the individual storms had been exceptional but the "clustering and persistence" were extremely unusual.

"We have seen exceptional weather. We cannot say it's unprecedented, but it is certainly exceptional," she said.

"Is it consistent with what we might expect from climate change? Of course, as yet there can be no definitive answer on the particular events that we have seen this winter, but if we look at the broader base of evidence then we see things that support the premise that climate change has been making a contribution."

Recent studies have suggested storms are developing a more southerly track, and that has been "typical" of the weather patterns here over the winter.

"One of the most unusual aspects of the winter's weather has been the southerly track of the storms. We expect them to go well north of Scotland," Dame Julia said.

"They have been slamming into the southern part of Britain. We also know that the subtropical, tropical Atlantic is now quite a lot warmer than it was 50 years ago.

"The air that enters this storm system comes from that part of the Atlantic where it is obviously going to be warmer and carrying more moisture.

"This is just basic physics.

"We also now have strong evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense.

"That is emerging in the UK records, and it is seen very definitely around the world in other countries like India and China.

"There is indeed as far as I can see no evidence to counter the premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly heavy rain events."

Dame Julia said sea levels were expected to rise by a foot over time, causing more problems for those trying to deal with flooding.

"In a nutshell, while there is no definitive answer for the current weather patterns that we have seen, all the evidence suggests that climate change has a role to play in it."

Dame Julia said that detecting when and how such storms developed would become increasingly important.

"We need to very urgently deliver much more robust detection of changes in storminess and daily and hourly rates," she said.

"We have the data. We just need to get on and perform the analysis."

The Met Office is also working on modelling to establish the likelihood of the current weather patterns occurring without any impact from climate change.

This was about cooling rather than warming - but, imo, this is not primarily about global temperatures, but more about the predominating and changing position of the jetstream.

Given all the talk of what the government should or should not be doing I wonder if for some part we should be looking at what individuals could be doing. For instance I watched Countryfile tonight and there was a lady whose home was set to be washed into the sea in the not too distant future - she was complaining bitterly that it should never have been granted planning permission and that those responsible shopuld be held to account. She also said that she should be given compensation for the impending loss of her home. But I was left with the thought.. why did she buy it in the first place? The house is on a piece of coastline that has been eroding for thousands of years at a very fast rate (the program cited the roman shoreline as being 3 1/2 miles out to sea). Surely she took a gamble which sadly for her hasn't paid off and whilst I sympathise should she really be compensated? Perhaps yes if she was given deliberatley misleading advice at the time of purchase but if not I don't think she should.

For a perhaps more contentious example how about the inhabitants of the Somerset levels - should the fact that they chose to buy on a flood prone area  (Muchelney for example means large island in the marsh) which has been hit by the highest rainfall of the last 250 years be something that we get angry at our government for not doing enough about?

I suppose most importantly where do we draw the line where flooding is concerned? Should we complain bitterly to the environment agency when our homes are flooded by a 1 in 50yr flood or a 1 in 500yr flood or indeed a 1 in 5000yr flood?

Should we rather than pumping (no pun intended) millions into flood defences be ensuring that new homes are built away from at risk areas? An even more radical solution could be to use the millions currently spent to buy up exisiting at risk properties and revert to a managed retreat approach creating larger natural soakaways and lessening the need for increasingly expensive flood protection schemes.

I don't pretend to know the answer but I do feel that perhaps the public reaction is sometimes a little knee jerk in these circumstances with a large amount of "if only they had..." and "I blame the (insert current political party) it would never have happened under...."

The climate is changing whether AGW or otherwise and will continue to do so and within that there will be naturally occuring  short livedm extremes - how we deal with these extremes is what matters.

Answers on a postcard please!

Very unsettled outlook again

Tomorrow sees an active front coming through which may well develop into a proper squall with high wnds and intense rainfall.

Wednesday's low looks to have a really tight circulation so wind will be a major feature along with another deluge for many parts.

Quite concerned about Friday's feature which is simalr to last weeks one where a deep trough pulled up warmer air into the mix bringing a lot of rainfall. 

The Wednesday event looks nasty even to my inexpert eye. I really don't like strong winds.

There is still some uncertainty according to the meto but the fax charts really do show an intense circulation

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif?09-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?09-0

Latest Fax charts , not great

I agree, not great - they'd be much better if that energy was zipping SE'wards into Europe