Yep - lots to watch again this week. WRF 12z hints at the squall feature you mention while EURO-4 is less clear. I know the models can make a total hash of predicting squall lines or indeed any form of narrow convective line; today's convective band crossing the country was not picked up on until after the 00z runs today.

The Wednesday low varies from run to run and model to model, so it's hard to be sure what will happen, but gusts to near 100kph (62mph) for a large proportion of England and Wales, with up to around 150kph (93mph) for a time across the SW of one, the other or both, does appear to be on the cards.

Typically, we see the odd gust getting to around 10mph higher than the GFS projection... so we might see over 100mph somewhere in the SW.

Friday's feature jumped south by hundreds of miles on the 06z GFS op run compared to the 00z, and then barely developed just like on the 00z ECM op run, sparing us the worst of the rain, but on the 12z GFS op run the development is back, while still keeping it as far south of the 06z - essentially the worst of both scenarios! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Wednesday's trouble.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021012/ECM1-96.GIF?10-0

Fridays system has the potential to be a severe rain maker as it interacts with the  warmer air further south

Railway line between Machynlleth and Tywyn (Cambrian coastline, mid Wales coast) has reopened today as the repairs from early January's storm have been finished. Certainly looks like being put to the test pretty quickly as some of the strongest winds on Wednesday could go through that area. The line further up from Barmouth to Pwllheli is not forecast to open until mid-May.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-26101654

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/930313_met3_ir_storm_of_the_century_anim.gif

This is the low destined to be the seed for the vicious Wednesday storm. It's been impressing the Americans with it's impressive arc of precipitation, which takes some doing.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/11/basis00/ukuk/prty/14021112_1100.gif

Should clear soon, but heavier bursts for the SE

Some very heavy rain into the B'ham area on net radar.

I don't think the radar network is picking up all the rain properly for some reason!

You know, I have been wondering about the radar network recently, as several times I've seen heavy rain outside the window but only light returns on the radar imagery.

On the other hand, the weather stations have been reporting amounts that are reasonably consistent with the radar data, so I guess it's a subjective thing around here at least - might be different up your way.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/11/basis00/ukuk/rsum/14021200_1100.gif

This is the EURO-4 prediction for today's rainfall total. Based on what I've seen so far today, I think that might be slightly overdone across central parts, but only by a few mm.

Then... showers overnight and tomorrow morning, followed by a very active frontal system, leads to this 48 hour total:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/11/basis00/ukuk/rsum/14021300_1100.gif

 - which is one of the largest I've seen from EURO-4. That's 45-50mm very widely across the South, Southwest and Wales. Similar across western Scotland too... a seriously wet couple of days.

Heavy rain now just over 5mms so far and rising.

Courtesy of Bren an old friend from days gone by

Dark here now with some very heavy rain to my W/SW.

Very heavy rain with hail and sleet now.

So, how much rain will we get from the showers and frontal system tonight through tomorrow in the hard-hit regions?

Well... the general totals across the south-central and southwest regions, excluding locallised peaks over high ground for the higher-resolution models, are as follows:

GFS: 10-15mm       WRF: 15-25mm       EURO-4: 20-30mm.

That's a fair old range and mostly comes down to EURO-4 predicting more in the way of showers getting well inland.

A look at the current radar implies that EURO-4 could be the winner tonight, but it's worth bearing in mind that it's been overcooking the convection on a number of occasions recently. In fact, a WRF/EURO-4 blend is possibly a reasonably good guide to follow, although sometimes the extent to which WRF kills convection as soon as it gets inland can be rather tedious.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014021112/24-289UK.GIF?11-12

Is there anybody left on the southern tip of Ireland these days? 

Could be one hell of a storm surge into the bristol channel if that comes off!

BBC weather; gales and heavy rain tomorrow awful with more stormy weather on the way for Friday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECU1-24.GIF?11-0

ECM has it a few mb lower than GFS.

Ouch.

Your pleas will fall on deaf ears; most likely.

Perhaps now is the time to start believing in the Almighty

Another big ice storm is about to happen in the States

Until the pattern over there changes, i can't see much changing over here

Experts are saying some flooded areas could take between 3 and 6 months to get back to normal