IMBY comment

certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

The projected rainfall totals (according to GFS) have reduced somewhat to previous runs... Just 9mm for me from the event - good job as if the south had an inch widely it would be carnage.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/24h.htm

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

That doesn't look right as Northern France is getting a pasting but this isn't shown in those projections

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The GFS predictions are woefully off the mark so far.

EURO4 seems to have had the distribution fairly good so far although I think it may have overdone the amounts. Having said that the band looks heavy enough, if not very wide: lots of oranges and pinks on Raintoday.

EURO4 keeps bands of heavy showers going across the south right through the night and well into Saturday afternoon too, whereas GFS has us totally dry.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/14/basis06/ukuk/prec/14021515_2_1406.gif

Remember that rain bands always look wider on model output than they will be in rela life, especially when they are fast moving. The model shows three (or six depenmding on the model) hours' worth of rain on one frame, so it will "smear out" the movement of the band.

I've just driven from Epsom to Esher and despite what the radar is showing, the rain was incessant ly falling with large droplets on the windscreen. The roads turned to rivers almost immediately and for me this has been the most consistently heavy rain I have seen.

I fear my journey home later may be difficult with the road between Malden Rushett and Oxshott a 'usual suspect' for flooding.

Heaviest pulse just passed.

Another band over the west country. Interesting to see how this develops or not

Steady, heavy rain here, but light winds.

An absolute deluge here since 1pm, after a morning of ponderous light to moderate rain. Back home it hit just after noon and didn't ease off until 1:30pm.

Bournemouth Airport (Hurn), which caught a fair bit of the very heavy rain prior to 12 noon, has reported 19mm since 6am. That's an average of just over 3mm per hour and one of the greatest 6 hour totals I've seen in recent times.

There are a lot of showers lining up in the Channel and these look to bring frequent rain to the south for many, many hours, perhaps out until midnight based on EURO-4 and the Met Office precipitation charts (which have forecaster input and show heavier showers than EURO-4).

Combined with the wind picking up, it could be one of the least pleasant Valentine's evenings this country has seen in some time.

Recent gust 78mph Scilly Isles.

Whatever the weather, love will prevail this evening

Absolutely shocking conditions driving down the A31 from Farnham to Alresford around 1:15PM- really big raindrops, and both carriageways like rivers. Eased off a lot now, but I suspect that it might be completely flooded up by now towards Bentley. My very unscientific (but straight-sided, and unsheltered) ice-cream container on the drive has about 20mm of rain in.

rained all day here. moat is back:

Garden saturated, looks like a pond! Never seen that before

I dread to think what the situation is like down in the town valley. Will check it out later

And Love never prevails! (not for me anyway)

An area of torrential rain has just formed over Kent

TBH The wind seems worse than the last storm Really bad here

In your back yard?

Been raining here in East Kent for most of the day, but recently much heavier.

And another - 22 now! I think that's up 5 in the last 1/2 hour?

Looks like several sets of squall lines making their way NNE, over South Wales and Wiltshire.

Yes, tidal ones for the South Coast: Lymington, Portland, Devon and Cornwall.

No surprise here - TORRO warning for the cold front thats organising out west at the moment

http://torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php