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Rob K
14 February 2014 13:55:21




IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 


The projected rainfall totals (according to GFS) have reduced somewhat to previous runs... Just 9mm for me from the event - good job as if the south had an inch widely it would be carnage.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/24h.htm


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

That doesn't look right as Northern France is getting a pasting but this isn't shown in those projections


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The GFS predictions are woefully off the mark so far.


 


EURO4 seems to have had the distribution fairly good so far although I think it may have overdone the amounts. Having said that the band looks heavy enough, if not very wide: lots of oranges and pinks on Raintoday.


 


EURO4 keeps bands of heavy showers going across the south right through the night and well into Saturday afternoon too, whereas GFS has us totally dry.


 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/14/basis06/ukuk/prec/14021515_2_1406.gif


 


Remember that rain bands always look wider on model output than they will be in rela life, especially when they are fast moving. The model shows three (or six depenmding on the model) hours' worth of rain on one frame, so it will "smear out" the movement of the band.


 


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
14 February 2014 14:07:29




IMBY comment
certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Yes, doesnt look as bad as forecast, but the waves off ppn are still developing. Main band coming towards London now

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



aye,

seems like one portion has split off towards the channel, and the other towards the Irish sea.

Importantly missing the areas that really dont need / cant cope with more rain.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not so sure about that... the rainband appears to be on or heading towards the Thames Valley.... Doesn't seem to be especially heavy or long lasting, though other pulses/rain areaswill probablydevelop/spread before this event has finished

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



The rainband has not behaved as forecast that's for sure. Saying that it is absolutely hammering it down here now in North London.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
haghir22
14 February 2014 14:15:55

I've just driven from Epsom to Esher and despite what the radar is showing, the rain was incessant ly falling with large droplets on the windscreen. The roads turned to rivers almost immediately and for me this has been the most consistently heavy rain I have seen.


I fear my journey home later may be difficult with the road between Malden Rushett and Oxshott a 'usual suspect' for flooding.


YNWA
Ally Pally Snowman
14 February 2014 14:20:52

74Mph gusts recorded in Camborne.

Originally Posted by: iPope 



St Mary Scilly 80mph

Looks like its really getting going now, think places like Plymouth mt, Needles IoW and Portland could see 90mph + tonight!



Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 14:27:22

Heaviest pulse just passed.


Another band over the west country. Interesting to see how this develops or not


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
14 February 2014 14:27:37

Steady, heavy rain here, but light winds.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
warrenb
14 February 2014 14:31:41
I concur, here in the South of Tonbridge the winds are very light but the rain is very heavy
Stormchaser
14 February 2014 14:34:48

An absolute deluge here since 1pm, after a morning of ponderous light to moderate rain. Back home it hit just after noon and didn't ease off until 1:30pm.


Bournemouth Airport (Hurn), which caught a fair bit of the very heavy rain prior to 12 noon, has reported 19mm since 6am. That's an average of just over 3mm per hour and one of the greatest 6 hour totals I've seen in recent times.


 


There are a lot of showers lining up in the Channel and these look to bring frequent rain to the south for many, many hours, perhaps out until midnight based on EURO-4 and the Met Office precipitation charts (which have forecaster input and show heavier showers than EURO-4).


Combined with the wind picking up, it could be one of the least pleasant Valentine's evenings this country has seen in some time.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
nsrobins
14 February 2014 14:38:58

Recent gust 78mph Scilly Isles.


Whatever the weather, love will prevail this evening


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Girthmeister
14 February 2014 14:39:34

Absolutely shocking conditions driving down the A31 from Farnham to Alresford around 1:15PM- really big raindrops, and both carriageways like rivers. Eased off a lot now, but I suspect that it might be completely flooded up by now towards Bentley. My very unscientific (but straight-sided, and unsheltered) ice-cream container on the drive has about 20mm of rain in.

idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
14 February 2014 14:40:39

rained all day here. moat is back:


 




The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 14:42:05

Garden saturated, looks like a pond! Never seen that before


I dread to think what the situation is like down in the town valley. Will check it out later


And Love never prevails! (not for me anyway)


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 14:48:56

An area of torrential rain has just formed over Kent


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
14 February 2014 14:52:06
Just walked the distance of about 15 metres from the office to Pret for a sandwich and got pretty soaked just in that time. Light it ain't.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
14 February 2014 15:05:33

TBH The wind seems worse than the last storm Really bad here


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Nordic Snowman
14 February 2014 15:12:57
Heavy rain Portsmouth all morning. Just eased off an hour ago. Drove through some flood water... a rare event here as Pompey doesn't flood often - no rivers.
Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Jive Buddy
14 February 2014 15:29:28


Recent gust 78mph Scilly Isles.


Whatever the weather, love will prevail this evening


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


In your back yard?


Been raining here in East Kent for most of the day, but recently much heavier.


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Nordic Snowman
14 February 2014 15:30:12
Pompey flooding 😁

http://instagram.com/p/kZeB3nQDfB/ 
Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Ally Pally Snowman
14 February 2014 15:31:15
21 severe flood warnings now the latest in Dorset and Devon. Looks like the main body of rain has pAssed through now plenty of heavy showers following though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
warrenb
14 February 2014 15:34:59
Just been outside, and it is muggy out there
Jive Buddy
14 February 2014 15:35:00

21 severe flood warnings now the latest in Dorset and Devon. Looks like the main body of rain has pAssed through now plenty of heavy showers following though.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And another - 22 now! I think that's up 5 in the last 1/2 hour?


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Girthmeister
14 February 2014 15:35:52


TBH The wind seems worse than the last storm Really bad here


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


 


Looks like several sets of squall lines making their way NNE, over South Wales and Wiltshire.

Girthmeister
14 February 2014 15:36:59


21 severe flood warnings now the latest in Dorset and Devon. Looks like the main body of rain has pAssed through now plenty of heavy showers following though.

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


And another - 22 now! I think that's up 5 in the last 1/2 hour?


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yes, tidal ones for the South Coast: Lymington, Portland, Devon and Cornwall.

Sevendust
14 February 2014 15:44:56

No surprise here - TORRO warning for the cold front thats organising out west at the moment


http://torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php


 

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