Good morning folks. Here is today's morning look at the midnight outputs of the NWP as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models continue to show a well worn path of unsettled weather this morning. The next 5 days will see some of the best weather today and tomorrow as a slack Westerly flow delivers just scattered showers which some places may miss and stay dry although some of the rain my be heavy with hail and thunder locally. It will be quite mild away from Northern Scotland where yesterday's trough lingers with occasional rain and mountain snow. Later tomorrow and more especially on Thursday winds are shown by all models to increase and back SW with heavy rain sweeping East across the British Isles followed by showers in the West later. Then through Thursday and Friday a broad and strong Westerly flow will carry frequent and heavy showers across the UK, heavy and thundery in places and wintry over Northern hills. Over Saturday we will find winds decrease but showers continue with Sunday being the best day of the weekend as a weak and transient ridge crosses the UK before the next spell of wind and rain looks like returning early next week.

GFS then shows next week as very unsettled, often mild and windy and wet at times but with a few drier spells in the SE and colder showery conditions at times later in a strong and colder Westerly wind.

UKMO starts next week with Low pressure to the North of Scotland with Monday looking a mild and windy day with some rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.

GEM shows continuing unsettled weather next week and potentially stormy weather by the end of the run as repeated areas of Low pressure pummel the UK from off the Atlantic in relatively average temperatures for late February.

NAVGEM too starts next week windy with rain in the North and West extending further SE with time in a strong and relatively mild SW flow.

ECM this morning is equally unsettled with a potential nasty Low pressure system next Tuesday bringing gales and heavy rain before Low pressure disrupts over the UK late in the run with lighter but colder winds still bringing outbreaks of rain almost anywhere across the UK with the chance of snow over Northern hills.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate that the ECM Ensemble pack suggest the UK will lie under low pressure somewhere near northern Scotland with a high risk of a trough down across the UK bringing further unsettled weather with rain or showers in continuing West and possibly NW winds later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show little change this morning with average temperatures likely to be sustained with Westerly winds and rain at times for all areas. the North does trend slightly lower temperatures from incursions of polar maritime air at times but these remain largely insignificant. No generally dry, settled or cold conditions are shown again this morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream still shows the flow of winds getting lighter across the Atlantic over the coming days before there is every sign of the flow increasing again later in more or less the same position as of present.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the weather remains far from settled with another two weeks at least of unsettled weather to come and no doubt some of the rain that falls as well as generally unwelcome and disruptive again in the flooded areas. Low pressure out to the NW continues to be the driving force and while severe gales and damaging winds aren't expected there is potential for some strong winds to give local problems at times. Temperatures will remain close to average with little significant frost over the period and very little snow away from Northern hills.

Cheer up, just think what it will be like in thirty years or whatever time it takes. You have 4 mild winters looming in front of you  predicted to the accuracy of the present 144hrs models.

At least we have some mystery left!

Very good Neil

I believe, a stimulant injection was imported from the USA to try and improve the condition - although sent on a very fast jet, the product degraded en route and was found to be of an unacceptable liquid consistency on arrival.

My condolences.

According to Joe ******i itlooks like the US "cold Shots" are going to continue well into March.  Looks like we are far from the end in regards to storms/wet weather

It actually looks like the majority of the snow prone areas in the northern hemisphere got fun this year.  with the exception of Northern and western Europe.  Have you seen the BBC article on the snow that hit Japan.  in some areas 1.5metres in less than 12 hrs.

Incredible.

But as we all know - if some areas are getting unusually low temps, then other areas must be getting unusually high temps.

I think Europe has been in that unusually high zone all year.

Looking generally unsettled and at times wet and windy with showers between even well into fi.

Not as stormy though at this stage.

Hi Gav

I have just requested a 2014 Spring Prospects thread in the Winter thread.  I know we have a couple of weeks of official winter left but it just isn't winter, wintry and unlikley to feel like that for some time.

We can then get some good discussions going about a cold vs mild spring and some mrfs, cets posted.

"..... 4 mild winters looming in front of you predicted to the accuracy of the present 144hrs models." - in that case a couple of those winters would most likely be snowfests!

I think this winter will be remembered among the likes of 89, truly awful. Absolutely nothing in the models, the one consolation is that the people chirping on about how this was going to be the worst winter since 1947 are probably looking pretty silly right now. 

Make no bones about it, the same people will make the same prediction next year and the year after that..

I only hope the Express doesnt predict the hottest summer since 1976 else thats put the kibosh on that too :-)

It really has been woeful, I haven't seen snow proper just a brief glimpse of sleet

Well here's my video update for today;

Drier This Week But Wetter Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Hopefully NOT the flooding rain's and severe gales though.

It will actually go down as one of the most exciting winters in my view. Aside from the destructive impacts, from a purely weather POV which is where I view it from,  it has been anything but boring.

It's been a bit 'samey' - I'd have preferred something other than storm force winds and rain, over and over again

Very noteable for the early December dry mild spell, also the storms and prolific rainfall that followed. Possibly also puts to bed the theory that "cold zonal" brings snow to lowland areas of the South. With PV and troughs often dropping to the North West or even over parts of the UK, it has only delivered winter propper to highland areas of the north. Whilst not overly mild, cold or extremes of either, the relative tight diurnal range from day to day has been amazing really. A sludgefest of a winter- now here's to Spring

Its been an amazing winter of weather, storms, squall lines, torrential rain/thunder and hail and even a little snow here last Tuesday.

There's more to winter than just cold and snow.

New thread on the way- closing this one shortly.