Good morning folks. Here is today's morning look at the midnight outputs of the NWP as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models continue to show a well worn path of unsettled weather this morning. The next 5 days will see some of the best weather today and tomorrow as a slack Westerly flow delivers just scattered showers which some places may miss and stay dry although some of the rain my be heavy with hail and thunder locally. It will be quite mild away from Northern Scotland where yesterday's trough lingers with occasional rain and mountain snow. Later tomorrow and more especially on Thursday winds are shown by all models to increase and back SW with heavy rain sweeping East across the British Isles followed by showers in the West later. Then through Thursday and Friday a broad and strong Westerly flow will carry frequent and heavy showers across the UK, heavy and thundery in places and wintry over Northern hills. Over Saturday we will find winds decrease but showers continue with Sunday being the best day of the weekend as a weak and transient ridge crosses the UK before the next spell of wind and rain looks like returning early next week.
GFS then shows next week as very unsettled, often mild and windy and wet at times but with a few drier spells in the SE and colder showery conditions at times later in a strong and colder Westerly wind.
UKMO starts next week with Low pressure to the North of Scotland with Monday looking a mild and windy day with some rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.
GEM shows continuing unsettled weather next week and potentially stormy weather by the end of the run as repeated areas of Low pressure pummel the UK from off the Atlantic in relatively average temperatures for late February.
NAVGEM too starts next week windy with rain in the North and West extending further SE with time in a strong and relatively mild SW flow.
ECM this morning is equally unsettled with a potential nasty Low pressure system next Tuesday bringing gales and heavy rain before Low pressure disrupts over the UK late in the run with lighter but colder winds still bringing outbreaks of rain almost anywhere across the UK with the chance of snow over Northern hills.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate that the ECM Ensemble pack suggest the UK will lie under low pressure somewhere near northern Scotland with a high risk of a trough down across the UK bringing further unsettled weather with rain or showers in continuing West and possibly NW winds later.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles show little change this morning with average temperatures likely to be sustained with Westerly winds and rain at times for all areas. the North does trend slightly lower temperatures from incursions of polar maritime air at times but these remain largely insignificant. No generally dry, settled or cold conditions are shown again this morning.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
The Jet Stream still shows the flow of winds getting lighter across the Atlantic over the coming days before there is every sign of the flow increasing again later in more or less the same position as of present.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary the weather remains far from settled with another two weeks at least of unsettled weather to come and no doubt some of the rain that falls as well as generally unwelcome and disruptive again in the flooded areas. Low pressure out to the NW continues to be the driving force and while severe gales and damaging winds aren't expected there is potential for some strong winds to give local problems at times. Temperatures will remain close to average with little significant frost over the period and very little snow away from Northern hills.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset