http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

So here we are then! Spring could turn up anytime in the next two months, and I daresay there has been hints of it in the air at times over the past few days down here 

I haven't got much time right now so I've just stuck the CFS outlook up there... what it shows is basically a zonal March, a heavily blocked and perhaps rather cold April, then a May dominated by higher pressure to our north and northeast while now pressure plagues the UK frequently - not a nice outlook at all! 

Bizzarely, that May pattern then sees barely any alteration through June, July and August. It would probably be very wet overall, but with high pressure mostly to our E and NE rather than NW, it would tend to be on the warm side... small comfort compared to the trouble the rain would cause, so let's hope CFS is barking up the wrong tree!

I don't like the look of that at all.

Not been a bad day here compared with recently - was some breaks in the cloud and sunny spells earlier also light winds. Not quite Spring like yet but certainly not a cold day. To be honest if we get a cold Spring like last year and it meant a nice Summer I would take it.

I'm fairly sure the CFS did indicate that kind of winter at one stage last autumn.

It was last summer, but long range models are pointless that this range.

CFS is pure, total, utter and complete 100% poop.

All I know is that spring is quietly springing up each day. The birds, insects, daffs, the longer days and coupled with some warm sunshine in the last day or two, it felt very nice indeed - sheltered from the breeze.

My hunch would say that we would be due some lengthy high pressure set up over the coming month or two and depending where it sets itself up, we could enjoy a pleasant spring... hopefully.

If you think last March's CET of 2.7C was something, its nothing compared to the 1.1C record. March can be a winter month if it decides it wants to be. 

I would welcome H P ...................in the right place of course

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014021912/run3/cfsnh-0-1134.png?12

That would be funny after the wait we have had

I wonder what sort of temperatures that would deliver.

I have to add that if anything like that verifies for April - then its time to look at the lowest April CET on record.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014022106/run1m2/cfsnh-0-1044.png?06

CFS sees a unsettled start to April

Yes I am aware of that Andy.

Ive the same hunch too! march could very well be the coldest month of the year again!!!

However it would be fantastic to get a reapeat spring ala 2011

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014022118/run1m4/cfsnh-0-1038.png?18

This would please many if verified

Just going to put this in here for safe-keeping (I think this thread needs will need stickying soon, BTW guys  )

Here's my spring seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/spring2014.html

Going for near normal temps and below average rainfall - I think March may be mild and quite dry, while April could be the first colder than average month of 2014 (and my be quite wet)

We'll see how it goes and evaluate at the end of the season as always.

Done

This

I honestly dont know why people post so many charts saying CFS shows XYZ in X months time, its the sort of thing Madden, Exacta and the Express do to justify their forecasts. Tomorrow or next week that chart for April will show southerlies and 21c

Im hopeful we see a nice dry start to spring followed by some good hefty April showers. Lovely

Nothing less than 60 consecutive days without rain, blue skies and temperatures between 16 to 22 degrees centigrade is acceptable! 

Ill repost my 2nd review of my year forecast if thats okay. I wan't to keep on checking how well it verfieis.

OK 2nd review! 

"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "

While I think I did well for January, February has been a bit of a failure (though I would note that it was substantially better than some long range forecasts!*) It was not the coldest month of the winter (not the warmest either but hardly a consolation), there were some snow showers in the S and E; at least more than January (80% of the snow I have seen since November fell in february but again really not saying much). And given that I predicted a below average CET the only part that was right was the admission that any cold spell would be unlikely to be severe or long lasting! So a complete failure of a month, but then you can't get them all. I hope to do better for march.  

*To be clear I am not talking about the metoffice (or TWO) . I think their LRF were actually pretty good especially the one issued end of December. 

You know what Quantum, you're very dry theme but with a showery April makes a lot of sense to me right now; the models are once again showing the pattern being very slow to shift one way or the other, which now leaves us with high pressure tending to be in charge, but at the same time there have been persistent signals from some long range models, including the Met Office ensembles, for a lot of high latitude blocking in April.

The way I see it, late March could be a crucial period during which we either see the mid-latitude blocking climb to the poles or not much change at all.

The former promotes a showery April with slightly (or perhaps more markedly) below average temperatures, while the latter would leave us locked into a similar pattern to what we have now.

What happens afterwards is highly uncertain, though - the Met Office ensembles and also CFS have been running away with the high-latitude blocking, resulting in a rather unsavoury late spring and start to summer.

The thing is, recent months have seen some predictions of high-latitude blocking - these being at, say, 10-14 days range - come to nothing much at all. It seems that the overall hemispheric or even global setup (ENSO, QBO, PDO etc.) is working against such blocking develop, in ways that the models struggle to forsee.

...so we could dodge the bullet, with the blocking staying more at the mid-latitudes in April, potentially improving the prospects for May as well.