Phew... despite a highly inconvenient spell of ill health, following an unbelievably busy run of weeks in Reading, I've finally submitted an application for the position of Trainee Meteorologist at the Met Office 
Now I can finally cast an eye across the models, and what I see is a strong trend for increasingly dry conditions, which I'll take no matter what the temperatures are!
As it is, the support for a notable spell (or 'snap'... I feel like 'waft' would be more appropriate 
) of daytime warmth is strong now, with ECM increasingly joining in with the idea over the past few runs. The nights could be quite chilly though, in low single figures - classic early spring conditions 
GFS then shows major blocking across the Arctic in late-FI, the kind which would bring sustained unseasnably cold conditions, although it would take something insane to match March 2013 considering the higher soil and sea temperatures we have now compared to the end of February 2013.
Regardless, the evolution stems from a greatly reduced presence of troughing to our NW by day 10, which is not supported by ECM or GEM, so no need to worry too much at this stage.
In fact, GEM is at the other end of the scale, with the warmest flow concievable - the night temperatures could be near or above average if it verifies:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014022812/gem-0-240.png
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On