High pressure still looks likely to take control, but GEM shows how the jet could still come out on top. But most of the ensembles suggest a period of calm and dry weather is likely after the heavy rain today and tonight. Some lively convection possible tomorrow in the South, which may be the last of the rain we get for some time

People hoping for 'warm' weather should not be too optimistic. A continental influence with time will limit highs and lower dps.

Indeed, none of the ensembles show warm weather - just somewhat mild for the time of year. ECM mean highs for London are 10 or 11C from the 7th, so a reasonable chance of 12 or 13C. GEFS is pretty much the same, temperatures a couple of degrees above average.

It doesn't half remind me of the fervour seen on here last May!

Indeed.

12 ot 13c should feel very pleasant in the sunshine hopefully.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Nothing too spectacular on offer

I was looking at the possibility of this evolving on the midnight GFS. Now on the basis of the 0600 there is a real chance of this outcome.  Probably very pleasant at least at times during the day judging by the consensus of models but could we be seeing more frosty nights than through the whole winter in the coming weeks!

In a building, I'd agree. Not outside. That's a midnight chart.

The ECM op (which was in the top 25% of EPS for high temps today) shows a high of 14C for Reading from that for Sunday.

(And yes, it's possible that 18C will be recorded next Sunday if a foehn effect sets in up north. It's also possible that a meteorite will crash into your house, or that I'll win the lottery. Lots of things are possible, it's whether they're likely that counts! )

Hi all,

I've done a quick Six Month look ahead video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All speculative and just for fun on a Sunday afternoon.

Hmmn. It looks like we'll finally get a major block setting up further west than we've seen for some time, keeping wet weather out in the Atlantic.

The question is, will it sit at relatively low latitudes and promote a warm tropical maritime flow, or will it achieve higher latitude positioning and deliver a chillier continental stream?

The GFS 06z is a wake up call in that regard, while the ECM 00z op was right at the other end of the scale.

So to conclude, *shrug*.

By the way Gav, can you quite believe how persistently awful the CFS monthly charts are looking for the next 6 months? Negative pressure anomalies for every single month with some high latitude blocking in evidence. I really hope the verification is equally as awful! If we can get something like the ECM 00z op run, it should find itself a bit adrift for the March anomalies at least.

The support from the Met Office long range product is of some concern... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean 

...or at least it would be had it not been so very far wide of the mark for the winter just gone! That was looking high-pressure dominated with mid-latitude blocking, if I recall correctly...?! 

Don't you go upsetting Darren - he's had an awful winter and will be hoping for a cold summer

The issue with the warmer uppers is whether or not we see any sunshine. That at this time of year can be a bit of problem, especially as the seas are relatively cold.

I suspect we'll get some warmer nights though

LOL. Sheer hopecasting in the face of no models backing you up. It's started early this year, hasn't it?

I don't understand why people like yourself make comments without giving reasons why they think that whatever scenario they're suggesting will come off. Where is the evidence showing prediected highs of 18C with 850s of 10C? There is none. Hint: it's not summer and it's still the winter half of the year - the sun's strong enogh to make snow melt quickly down here but it's not strong enough yet to give the sort of heating you're going on about.

The only way you'll get to see 18C with 850s of 10C at this time of year are a) in a building, b) in a foehn effect if you're very lucky or c) at the end of a long dry spell with a direct feed straight from the tropics.

Its a geeky bitch off in here today  

That's still hopecasting. The ECM shows a high of 14C for Reading on that day, or 15C for London.

Anyway, I'm, not going to spend my Sunday afternoon arguing with you about things which aren't even being shown on any weather models. We'll see soon enough whether your forecast is correct.

The 6z ensembles show a pressure rise for virtually all of us.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

The 6z ens from GFS don't offer those temps, as that was the form horse through the winter I would back that over the ever so optimistic ECM

Belatedly - all the very best for this! Your considered insights into conditions here in the South have been particularly useful and accurate this 'winter', so I'd hope that would stand you in good stead

2008: The winter to start it all

2009: The winter (in kent)

2010: One winter to rule them all

2011: The winter of broken promises

2012: The winter that started in March

2013: A winter of 100 days of sarcasm

Thanks very much 

I've found the excessive rainfall fascinating, or at least I did until it had been going on for more than two months... then it finally got rather tedious even for the likes of myself!

Now I'm in spring mode and enjoying the sight of some pleasant early spring charts on offer - perhaps nothing noteworthy in terms of temperatures in the next week or so (though ECM could bring the mid-teens widely), but feeling decent enough where winds are light and the sun makes an appearance. Admittedly, neither of those are guaranteed... but in recent years (2013 the exception!) I have seen many lengthy spells of largely sunny weather in March, with such conditions seeming to become more of a challenge to obtain as we then progress through April and into May.

So... I am hopeful for a spring like start to spring, based on the current NWP output