Bit hard to know until we see how it turns out I suppose, 18C still looks a bit if a stretch to me (not that I'd mind!) certainly looking a lot more settled than of late.

Thought the slating was a bit unecessary.

I knew there was something else I meant to say about 2012 earlier... that year, the U.S. saw a record-warm March across a vast area, in fact it was about as extreme as it gets in terms of positive temperature anomalies.

...so no need to worry about UK highs, just cross your fingers and hope we don't start hearing about record heat in the U.S. any time soon 

 

Anyway... GFS really sticking with the easterly theme for next week, following on from a relatively warm weekend. Not great for eastern coasts in particular, but of course it wouldn't be nearly as chilly as March 2013 was, due to SSTs being some 2-6*C higher this year. Just NE of the Straits of Dover, the anomaly is currently +2.5*C.

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_anom_0_600.png

In fact, you can really see the impact of a lack of cold air across the UK and the North Sea; as the Atlantic becomes dominant to the west, anomalies are instead near or just below normal for the most part.

It will be interesting to see to what extent mist and murk is reduced in frequency and extent compared to a year ago. In 2013, such conditions continued to plauge the SW and S Coast at times all the way through to the end of June!

 

Finally... those last frames of the GFS 18z are in line with what CFS has been persistently shouting about for weeks on end. Heights rise to the NW and the weather becomes horrible, with frequent rain and supressed temperatures, until later in May or early in June - or on some runs... eternally, or so it seems .

In other words, I'd make the very most of whatever fine weather we manage in the next 10 days, just in case!
Unfortunately, the progression is quite feasable and with the Met Office long range ensembles tending to agree, I have long worried about April 2014 in particular. I'm seeing the potential for slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms causing locallised flash flooding due to the extreme groundwater levels 

 

I feed a bit bad for shoving that negative outlook into a generally positive theme tonight - but at least this way it won't be such a shock for some if it does unfold, and if it doesn't we can all be very relieved 

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Still looking pretty settled and relatively mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png 

Stormchaser is right in his post GFS deep FI has been very consistent in bringing in much colder north westerlies in two weeks and lol the final frame bring -5c uppers across the UK with cold zonality just in time for the spring Equinox!

Have been waiting for cold zonality all bloody winter and it would be typical if it arrived well into spring when it would be useless for giving decent snow.

Anyway next 10days looks good so enjoy.

Andy

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