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With GFS refusing to show high latitude blocking taking hold, instead favouring a temporary colder spell, it seems CFS may finally have backed down in terms of the prospects for the second half of March:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014030806/run1m/cfs-0-510.png?06
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger
I know what you mean - but that is an OK chart there.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Yep - that particular CFS run shows conditions recovering nicely for a time after only a brief colder spell, in other words it is more or less in line with the GFS 12z op run.
The 18z GFS op has since rolled out and is if anything an even better match. It will be interesting to see if some combination of their output actually unfolds or not - we could end up remaining high and dry as per the ECM 12z op run.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png
A week tomorrow looks the day for change .......some runs suggest earlier but it looks like the 17th
High pressure being pushed further west, cold air displaced from canada east past greenland. Decent chance of a cold spell of sorts.
Lovely spell of weather coming up. Lol at people look for a cold snap in late March! Today feels like late Spring. Cracking weather
Originally Posted by: Matty H
Usual suspects but each to their own matey.
Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
Late March And April Concerns
http://www.gavsweathervids.com
Won't be one for Matty.
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
thanks Gavin
Great news
Thank you very Much Gav
Lovely spell of weather coming up. Lol at people look for a cold snap in late March! Today feels like late Spring. Cracking weather 😎
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-228.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-252.png?12
Much more unsettled spell on the way , GFS has been consistent with this
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Almost a certainty that we will get a horrendous cold and unsettled spell now - in the worst winters - that always happens it seems and no doubt it will again.
How anyone can dislike today's weather is beyond me...even the coldies...It was perfect....Not hot, not cold, clear blue skies....
There are some strange people about, (you're not one of them by the way)....but after the crap we have endured this "winter", today was a much needed boost.
Wouldn't be that much of a surprise to me if things verify like that; we had a number of early-mid spring cold snaps in the 90's which came on the back of mild winters.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
No point in ignoring it, a cooler spell is on the way .......................and yes today was pleasant I got quite a bit done in the garden , dare I say this spell could be the best of the year? we got 18c here, if the summer matches that then that will do just fine
Yes, contrary to what people think , that would suit me fine
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Not if the temp doesn't exceed 17c between now and then .
Looks like a nice settled week, a relatively warm weekend (down south at least) then a change to something cooler and wetter
But a lovely spring week to look forward to in the meantime
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014031000/ECM0-240.GIF?10-12
Models trying to build a proper northerly but so far failing. If it does come off, it could be a wintry end to March
There's still that tendency for some residual energy to remain upstream in the Atlantic, leading to topplers being modelled rather than sustained Arctic outbreaks.
It could be that many places manage an overnight snowfall clearing during the following day and followed by a return to near average conditions, which I for one wouldn't mind
That's all speculative, however, with the fine conditions beforehand looking to stick around until Sunday or Monday for the south, not quite as long further north, with the NE potentially seeing a bit of a rubbish Saturday unfortunately.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif
wintry for a few
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2284.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2283.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.gif
Much cooler weather just around the corner