Model Output Discussion 5-3-14 >>>· Page 5

Hippydave
Advanced Member

10 March 2014 21:58:08

#107

ECM looks far from cold, time will tell.

Originally Posted by: cowman

It wouldn't take much... [url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Originally Posted by: Gooner

]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Originally Posted by: doctormog

[/url] ECM hasnt had the best of Winters to be fair

Originally Posted by: cowman

True 😉

Unless you're going by the verification stats where it's in the lead as the best model, as per usual

In a similar vein anyone know if GEM has had an upgrade? Last few times I've checked it's verifying well (2nd generally):-

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

etc.

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

picturesareme
Advanced Member

10 March 2014 22:13:54

#108

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-228.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-0-252.png?12

Much more unsettled spell on the way , GFS has been consistent with this

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Turn it off Marcus!....

Winter is over! (I wish)....

Almost a certainty that we will get a horrendous cold and unsettled spell now - in the worst winters - that always happens it seems and no doubt it will again.

How anyone can dislike today's weather is beyond me...even the coldies...It was perfect....Not hot, not cold, clear blue skies....

There are some strange people about, (you're not one of them by the way)....but after the crap we have endured this "winter", today was a much needed boost.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

No point in ignoring it, a cooler spell is on the way .......................and yes today was pleasant I got quite a bit done in the garden , dare I say this spell could be the best of the year? we got 18c here, if the summer matches that then that will do just fine

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Agree...18-20 all summer long would be just fine and dandy! (As long as it's dry)!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Er no... 18-19c felt warm today but only because it comes on the back of winter. By June 18c maxes feel icy cold.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Slight exaggeration Rob? 😝

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/7100_1km/MaxTemp_Average_1971-2000_6.gif

Anyway the 18z charts still suggest a generally settled week coming up followed by something a bit chillier.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

50/50 no exaggeration 😃 By the late June 18C does feel cool down here... early June it's just nice. 18C in July does feel relatively icy, but then again 21C-22C are average by then though.

Quantum
Advanced Member

10 March 2014 23:12:13

#109

Very interesting trends! Coldest spell of the 'winter' on the way? I think at the very least scotland will enjoy a couple of days of snow showers and frosty nights.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member

10 March 2014 23:22:14

#110

Also CFS chart of the day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014031012/run1m/cfs-2-714.png?12

We finally get the 'beast from the east'

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Gooner
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 00:10:02

#111

ECM looks far from cold, time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Hippydave

It wouldn't take much... [url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Originally Posted by: cowman

]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Originally Posted by: Gooner

[/url] ECM hasnt had the best of Winters to be fair

Originally Posted by: doctormog

True 😉

Originally Posted by: cowman

Unless you're going by the verification stats where it's in the lead as the best model, as per usual

In a similar vein anyone know if GEM has had an upgrade? Last few times I've checked it's verifying well (2nd generally):-

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

etc.

The headline says it all really

PMSL

have a look

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

vince
Guest

11 March 2014 08:18:34

#112

Blimey outlook must be lovely and mild , no postings since last night then .

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 08:59:37

#113

Blimey outlook must be lovely and mild , no postings since last night then .

Originally Posted by: vince

There you go. A pleasant and seasonal northerly to greet the first pre-season cricket friendlies:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0

Cool down still confirmed by the GEFS from 18 March onwards for my backyard:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=204&y=167

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

nsrobins
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 10:35:49

#114

Cool down maybe but it looks like my brief shower of soft hail on March 18th is off the menu.

Gutted.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Stormchaser
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 12:46:29

#115

I am starting to be reminded of how 2011 into 2012 behaved; predictions of breakdowns to the high pressure were nearly always delayed and/or downgraded.

I do wonder if we've now entered a period of 'high pressure tendency' - i.e models correct towards high pressure - following what was a prolonged period of 'low pressure tendency' (these are my own terms by the way).

For this to be the case, CFS and, more significantly, the Met Office ensembles (as of last month's update), have to verify very poorly for April through August. Good thing is, that's not asking for much!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 16:28:04

#116

Decent cold incursion showing on the 12Z especially for the north.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 16:35:12

#117

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140311/12/186/h500slp.png

This sort of thing should raise eyebrows. The stalling low over greenland could eventually push towards the UK and turn things easterly. Also if that weak ridge comes over the UK, it could spell some extremely cold nights depending how far the cold air gets on the transient northerly.

Edited by user 11 March 2014 16:37:06 | Reason: Not specified

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Gavin P
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 17:15:00

#118

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Hold Sway;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks mainly settled up to mid-month, then lots of uncertanty Re. second half of the month.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

vince
Guest

11 March 2014 17:18:52

#119

Quantum searching in desperation.lol. searching for the tiniest nugget of hope.

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 17:25:40

#120

Quantum searching in desperation.lol. searching for the tiniest nugget of hope.

Originally Posted by: vince

I think thats a little unfair. The pattern is really not that bad, and is the most promising thing on the models for a while, and the most tangible probably since late december. At the very least a one day cold incursion for scotland and maybe even N england, but there also lies the potential for more widespread cold if it doesn't fall away to the east.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

doctormog
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 17:25:48

#121

Quantum searching in desperation.lol. searching for the tiniest nugget of hope.

Originally Posted by: vince

Believe it or not Vince that would actually bring snow showers here. Although I could politely tell the GFS where to put its snow showers 😊

It does look increasingly likely that after this week there will be a much cooler showery regime although to be fair in sheltered southern parts depending on the flow you may not notice much difference.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Charmhills
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 17:34:15

#122

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Hold Sway;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks mainly settled up to mid-month, then lots of uncertanty Re. second half of the month.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Cheers Gav.

I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of March stays dry with average temps or close to.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

vince
Guest

11 March 2014 17:37:56

#123

Q I was only pulling your keyboard friend . Ain't nothing like a good old rumpus when the coldies and warmies get together 😉

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 17:45:47

#124

Q I was only pulling your keyboard friend . Ain't nothing like a good old rumpus when the coldies and warmies get together ;-)

Originally Posted by: vince

I didn't mean to sound all serious vince sorry about that!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member

11 March 2014 18:48:56

#125

ECM starting to drag some deep cold in at 192h. Will it collapse or follow through?

Looks like both!

216 is an ana warm front event.

Not that it will happen or anything.

Edited by user 11 March 2014 18:53:33 | Reason: Not specified

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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