Erm. The GFS 12z op run is... staggering.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140331/12/171/h850t850eu.png
Following the much warmer than average conditions for many of us out to Saturday, a brief cooler interlude across the weekend is followed by the Atlantic digging south out to our west and providing upstream support for a vast ridge across Europe. This idea was shown by ECM on yesterdays 00z op run but was then dropped and remained very much absent on todays 00z op run.
At this stage, the GFS op run shows very mild nights across England - at 9 to 11*C minimum - being the source of high CET returns, with the daytime maxima supressed by a trapped frontal system - though still reaching the mid-teens widely.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140331/12/192/h850t850eu.png
By Tuesday, skies are clearing more, and temperatures climb above 20*C widely across the SE.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140331/12/240/h850t850eu.png
We then see the next in a long series of blocks to the NE keeping us in the warm airmass, and as we lie in the col between the Atlantic and block, light winds give pleasant days with temperatures above 20*C somewhere in England on each day.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140331/12/300/h850t850eu.png
The Atlantic then undercuts and drops quickly to the Med. which serves to keep us in the warm air, 20*C continuing to be hit somewhere in the UK every single day, which continues to a peak on Tuesday 15th when 22*C is shown for the SE (which we know would likely lead to 24*C or so in favoured spots).
Even from there, it only cools down due to an incursion of cooler air around a new ridge building strongly across from the Azores, with warmer air likely to return before too long.
Put simply, April 2014 would start to eat April 2011 for breakfast if this GFS op run verified.
That's a big IF though, and we really need to see what ECM comes up with this evening before considering the possibility much.
UKMO is out, but it's not all that clear from its 144 hour chart where it would go; the trough across the Azores isn't pointing south as much as GFS has it, indicating a less sharp jet buckle, but on the other hand, the trough is further west than GFS has it...
The decider is that shortwave pulling away from the Azores trough, which would at least delay the ridge. The model has trended to a stronger Euro ridge, though - so it does seem to be something to keep a close eye on.
Comparing the 12z GFS op run in FI with April 2011 out of interest, I can see than in 2011, there was a lot less PV energy across Siberia, and the U.S. saw less in the way of trough activity as the PV core was centered right over Greenland rather than more across Canada.
Warm and dry Aprils in the UK can arise from a variety of N. Hemisphere setups... I'm trying to recall whether they actually had much correlation with cool and wet summers or not...?
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser