Pretty much the same as what we were being told 20-25 years ago IIRC.

Well from what I can see of the ECM 12z op run on Meteociel, it's still going for more energy holding back near Greenland, preventing the higher heights from retogressing. Instead they focus to our NE as of +168 hours. 192h onwards is currently missing from public view 

Perhaps the ECMWF are trying to figure out why ECM diverges from UKMO, GFS and GEM from day 5 

Turns out that the way ECM evolves days 7-10 has some support from GEM, with JMA simialr to day 8 (the limit of its range).

They all show the main cold being diverted away from the UK, leaving many of us with near-average conditions and spells of rain as troughing draws close to the south.

It gives me more reason to hope that the troughing well tend to locate to the west of the UK, keeping us on the warmer side of things i.e. near or above average temperatures for the most part.

models fliipped back to the mild and muggy and potentially rather wet scenario as troughing pushes in

That prediction must come from the new Basset model.

I wouldn't rule out some thunder early next week either.

Generally changeable thoughout the model output today and staying that way well into FI.

I am struck this morning by how low the heights in the Arctic are looking relative to the blocked setup that was being suggested soon into April... in the space of a day or two we've gone from charts in the 7-10 day range showing Arctic Highs and high latitude blocking to charts showing troughing around Greenland and mid-latitude blocking.

Kudos to ECM if this turns out to be the true path, as it was among the first to cease with the higher heights across Greenland - although it can't be entirely overlooked that until that point, it was showing the strongest blocking of them all.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

It looks to me like the trend has started to influence CFS as well, with the lack of a definitive +ve height anomaly suggesting that the output is very uncertain about the strength and placement of any blocking features. This is a notable change from the consistent signal for widespread and persistent/strong high-latitude blocking that was in place for many weeks.

From the position of the -ve height anomalies, though, it is clear that the vast majority of runs still place blocking to the NW, N or NE, so it will be interesting to see how the most recent developments affect the model projections. Perhaps there will be more of a mid-latitude block, but situated to the E/NE, with troughs in the Atlantic stalling across or just west of the UK?

I'm beginning to see a fair chance of a very wet April, with often near or above average temperatures depending on the proximity of the trough.

Another April 2012 could be disastrous with ground water levels still very high

GFS really wants to send a trough across the UK at some point in the period from day 7 to day 16, but it seems to have half a dozen different ideas as to how that may happen 

The model also keeps undercutting the mid-latitude blocking more than we've been seeing from ECM and UKMO, which then encourages some attempts at high-latitide blocking, though they never get going properly on the 12z GFS op run.

It's all a bit confusing to be honest, and I'm hoping to see ECM keeping the trough more to our W/NW again this evening, else I'll have to give up on trying to anticpate the right things in the first half of April 2014  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The Met/o run slowly brings the trough northwards to with rain for the south.

With all due respect James - I think April has to be one of the hardest months in this country to forecast.

You can literally get almost anything from 27C to snow lying.

Great

A whole morning without a single post in here... I can see the tumbleweed.

This morning, the idea of higher heights to our NE refusing to retrogress has firmed up a bit across ECM, UKMO and GEM, with signs that blocking there will do its best to hold on in the face of Atlantic attacks.

GFS is the odd one out, eroding those heights and transfering a weak ridge to our N and NW. This sends the Atlantic close to our shores, and while the model clearly sees what the others are going on about based on how high pressure manages to nose across from the SW and extend into Scandinvia, it doesn't look convinced.

In fact, GFS in FI looks rather confused to me, as if there are two competing signals - one for a ridge from the SW reinforced by high pressure to our NE, and one for a UK trough with high pressure to the N and NW. This applies to both the 00z and 06z operational runs.

By and large, we look to remain on the warmer side of things for much of the first week or so of April, possibly longer if ECM and GEM are on the money.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA Friday

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking ahead through April with the JMA model + this weekends warm-up + The CAPE charts get an outing forst the first time this year.

Thanks Gavin...

Yes, nothing overly cold on the horizon now

Perhaps an important GFS 12z operational run almost done rolling out; it features a strong HP cell moving SE from Greenland to Scandinavia days 6-8, which is in line with recent ECM operationl runs.

This really changes the game from previous runs, as there is already a ridge in place across much of Europe, so troughing, now with the option of heading NE through the UK and on into Scandinavai removed, has nowhere to go but more or less north up the western flank of the Scandi High.

This in turn promotes a new ridge from the SW, which reinforces the Scandi High and keeps us on the warmer side of things for much of FI.

I reckon this poor modelling of heights to our NE is a major Achilles' Heel in the ability of LRF models to predict the evolution of the weather in our part of the world - the knock on effects from LP being held out of Scandinavia have a huge impact on the mean temperature;

The 06z produces a CET of around 6.6*C for the first 10 days of April averaged out.

The 12z produces a CET of around 10.2*C. That's a 3.6*C increase, going from 1.9*C below the 1981-2010 LTA to 1.7*C above        I'll take the latter please 

Cheers Gav.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2014032712/cfs-3-7-2014.png?12

The best July anomaly I can recall seeing from CFS... ever.

JFF 

Seriously though, do not take it seriously