The 18z GFS op run sends energy NE with no block to our NE on day 8. The result is a much more unsettled FI.

Across England, the SE in particular, temperatures often hold up to near or above average despite this, while it's more average as you head NW, rather cool at times in NW Scotland.

That's due to high pressure across Europe. In fact it gets unseasonably hot across most of the European continent, with mid-20's across France from the 12th, after briefly visiting on the 8th (in higher-res!).

Interesting that both this run and the previous one see the Atlantic becoming vigorous in response to cold air spilling into the Atlantic having been dragged through Canada. The 18z takes it a lot further than the 12z did, though.

I'm far from convinced that the westerlies will manage to become that strong given the time of year, but these days, typical weather rarely seems to be something you can rely on 

No comments today?

The next week still looks pretty mild before we get into some real scatter and a few colder options.

The key will be whether troughing can remain to the west of he UK which would guarantee warmer conditions although not as warm as tomorrow looks to be down here.

Meanwhile, congratulations to Quantum

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12854

Well I daresay this morning's model output is making a fool of me; it is fairly certain that frontal systems will be bothering us this weekend and into next week, but what happens next is a bit unclear.

ECM stuck with pushing a trough to the NE of the UK, but this time not via a route right through us, so not quite as disturbed for days 6-8. Day 10 sees chilly air approaching from the NE, and temperatures would be notably below average diurnally, with a risk of widespread air frost.

GFS considered the idea on the 00z, but was a lot less progressive in bringing the trough to our NE and then far more progressive in clearing it away to allow a strong but chilly area of high pressure to affect the UK. FI gradually warms up, but not before some frosty nights.

UKMO leaves more of a trough to the SW on day 6, and that would either push warm air up from the south in combination with the Euro Ridge or allow a build of pressure near Iceland to enhance the pull of cold air south along the fear flank of the storm system moving to our NE.

GEM is like GFS but warms things up quicker as things move along more rapidly.

So there I was thinking that perhaps it would be safe to call a notable cooler interlude of 1-4 days followed by a gradual warm up, with ECM the outside option and the idea of a rapid return to warmth also of low liklihood.

...but then the GFS 06z op run started running, and it changed the game again:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140401/06/120/hgt300.png

That stretch of jet energy heading NW through Iceland wasn't there on the previous two runs.

It's a big deal, because it stops energy from running NE to Scandinavia, which then allows heights to rise there, resulting in HP instead of LP, in turn keeping the Atlantic further NW than on the 00z:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140401/06/168/h850t850eu.png

Now we have a ridge from the SW, more like GEM, which brings a more rapid return to above average temperatures. By way of balance, FI then sees HP to the west rather than east so turns really quite chilly.

So next week is totally up for grabs, which is not helpful when you're trying to anticipate the average temperature for the month 

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

March CET + Cooler Weather For April Yes Or No?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

April still proving to be a forecasting challenge, LOL.

Cheers Gav.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014040112/gfs-7-120.png?12

A troubled weekend ahead, with trailing frontal systems producing a lot of rain, much of it on the lighter side... some breaks possible, which would see temperatures rising quickly into the mid-teens or so due to a warm airmass across the UK, but otherwise not one to remember fondly!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014040112/gfs-0-192.png?12

The Atlantic LP then into Scandinavia, but we are saved from much of a northerly by a decent ridge from the SW that is supported by weak troughing across the Azores.

That ridge heads gradually to our NE, then E, forming a strong mid-latitude block as the Atlantic wakes up (with a 955mb low at +300 hours sat just west of Iceland)... FI is largely average or above in terms of temperatures by day and night combined.

The UKMO 12z run looks mobile enough at +144 hours to steer the Atlantic trough to Scandinavia, but would there be as much of a ridge in from the SW thereafter...? There is more of a trough near the Azores to prop it up than GFS has, but on the other hand, the trough has dug a bit further south.

On the other hand - okay I'm out of hands, how about the left foot?  - the GEM 12z op run digs the trough about as far south, but still brings a decent ridge in, albeit a bit more slowly.

All things considered so far this evening, GFS might be on to something, but perhaps moving along a bit too quickly?

ECM will be important as usual - will it continue to show the Atlantic stalling close to our east? I have to say, with the Atlantic looking to ramp up and PV energy getting into Greenland a bit, a stalled trough seems a bit out of place.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014040112/ECM1-192.GIF?01-0

ECM's op has joined the GFS op in showing a ridge from the SW moving right over the UK... and then taken it a fair bit further!

It is rather chilly under that high for a time though, with a risk of frost if skies are clear.

It comes about after the Atlantic LP situates as far north on day 6 as GEM has it, but without as much energy tracking around the periphery as shortwaves.

Funny how the ECM op has gone from one end of the output range to the other... but that seems to happen several times a month these days. It leaves UKMO at the most unsettled end, with the trough closest to the UK on day 6.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014040112/ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

This is the sort of thing that the GFS op came up with 24 hours prior. It's hard to get much further away from what the ECM op was showing 24 hours ago 

The 12z of yesterday had me wondering if April would end up being colder than average despite the warm start, leaving my CET 'prediction' way too high. Today's 12z has me considering whether that CET punt could be too low instead 

The corollary of all this is that things seems far from certain.

Very good outlook for the south especially and potential quite toasty. It already feels like Summer has started. Perhaps we will pay for it later in the year

The thread is dead  Edit: oh wait there's BFTE 

The theme of low pressure having some degree of influence, followed by a ridge from the SW, is in place across the model output this morning.

There is considerable variation in terms of how much influence the LP has, with GFS going for a glancing blow, ECM less so, then UKMO and GEM tracking LP right across the UK, the latter bringing a notable system.

The ridge that follows is also modelled in different ways. GFS takes it steadily eastward, then brings a new ridge from the west, but with a slowdown caused by a shortwave sliding to our NE.
Meanwhile, ECM has the Atlantic blasting across the Atlantic, flattening things there, while the ridge across the UK slips into Europe and creates a very warm but perhaps unstable setup for day 10; it is unclear whether a ridge would manage to build north through the UK from there.
UKMO has more in the way of high pressure to the NE, and GEM shows how things could evolve in that situation, with the LP sliding into Europe and the ridge building over the top of it - on the cool side for a few days, but nothing marked, before it starts to warm up again from the SW.

There remains a lot to sort out regarding next week. In the meantime, Sunday might turn out alright if the Euro ridge is close enough as GFS suggests... but it's a close call.

The 12z runs of ECM and GFS are a little closer together, both agreeing on an area of HP across the UK by Wednesday, with initially somewhat cool air gradually being replaced by warmer air from the south as we head towards the weekend.

Then we have ECM still going for a Euro Ridge and flat Atlantic pattern evolving thereafter, while GFS still develops a strong ridge from the west that gradually extends eastward through FI.

By day 10 ECM isn't set up for such high temperatures as the 00z headed for, while GFS has the ridge further across the UK and hence a less chilly setup - hence I see them as a little closer together.

It does appear that the Atlantic incursion is only a temporary glancing blow - but it does look capable of bringing some appreciable rain to many parts Sunday/Monday. The NW gets a lot more out of it than the SE, with a ridge across Europe keeping the worst away from the SE corner in particular.

SC - Appreciating these very well put together summaries, keep 'em coming

Agreed - sterling work from James. Well balanced and a much needed summary amongst the tumbleweed in here at the moment

Thanks guys 

I figured while Martin gets through those troubled times - and I continue to wish him all the best with that - there was room for a temporary return of the more extensive summaries that I used to do in the pre-'Martin summary' era 

I'll admit that it helps having a break from lectures in Reading, some rather unusual synoptics, and surface conditions well ahead of their time. Today felt for all the world like one of those dissapointingly cloudy, muggy days in late May or early June when it would only take a bit of sun to send temperatures soaring.

I mean, how often do you get a daytime maximum some 4*C above average under cloudy skies in April? 

Though a little closer to hand, the fax charts produce a fairly well developed depression over England on Sunday, which you'd never guess at from GFS. Perhaps there are signals for a more Atlantic type.

I agree doc, this permanent blanket of low cloud/fog is dreary, dull and frankly a little depressing. Let's hope Sunday blows it away