Not as good a summer generally though as 1995, and was only marginally better overall than last year for me. May 2003 was a very unsettled month as well after the lovely March and April we had; I remember thinking during that May at one stage" I hope that wasn't our summer for this year". Thankfully I was proved wrong.

http://scdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140413/12/132/h850t850eu.png

On goes the usual trend; high pressure is more extensive across the UK and western parts of Scandinavia than on previous runs.

Also of great interest to me is the Atlantic trough near the Azores, which has shifted notably west and ought to help keep the blocking to our NE much closer to hand, perhaps providing a warm flow of air in the process 

http://scdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140413/12/147/h850t850eu.png

At this point the 06z only had us on the far SW'rn edge of the blocking high. That said, the 06z run does tend to be more agressive with the Atlantic sometimes.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014041312/UW120-21.GIF?13-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014041312/UW144-21.GIF

UKMO is almost a perfect match for GFS out to day 5, and remains very similar out to day 6. It's almost the same as the 00z UKMO run - good consistency from that model.

I tried looking at the UKMO 850hPa temps but they make no sense at all beyond day 4 - clearly some form of error going on there.

Looks like we could be pulling easterly muck in by Easter weekend.

Some showers possible for the south later on that Easter weekend to.

'Easterly muck' tends to be fine for MBY. Nice to see a change from the usual 'westerly muck' we over here normally have to contend with

Hi all,

Here's today's video update (it's a longer rnage look-ahead)

May To July From South Korea;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All in the realm of speculation and JFF as always.

Quite something, when you have to add a post to the Model Output to stop it dropping on to page 2

But then, what do you expect with a stuck pattern, bubbles of high pressure breaking off from the Azores high and drifting across to Scandinavia. Quiet weather for nearly everyone, just the occasional depression brushing the NW  (and not very intense even then). GFS appears to have abandoned yesterday's attempt to show us that April can still have a sting in the tail; yesterday it was promising freezing weather for the last few days of April but no more.

Remaining settled into the weekend but than the threat of showers or rain moving up from the south by Sunday or Monday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

Mmm, looks like we may have to put up with a north easterly wind suppressing sunshine and temperatures at this end over that long weekend - especially on Sunday and into Monday, so those hoping to break out the BBQ in warm sunny weather may end up feeling disappointed - but it is all said in low confidence anyway.
It's like April 2013 all over again - the only difference are SST's over the North Sea and Strait of Dover being higher than this time last year.

Still, it'll keep it nice and quiet at this end and I'm still grateful that the stormy stuff of the past winter had not trended into March and April.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014041512/UW144-21.GIF

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014041512/gem-0-144.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2014041512/gfs-0-144.png

Agreement now for a fairly miserable Easter weekend for many of us as LP tracks across the south as a slow moving feature. best make the most of a sunny Wednesday and warmer Thursday where you get it!

Saturday might just about escape reasonably dry, but the breeze will feel chilly based on the cooler air being pulled around by the models currently - it's actually polar maritime air, drawn down through Scandinavia. This is also true for Good Friday.

Notice, however, the negatively tilted trough on both the UKMO and GEM 12z op runs. That occurs as trough energy phases S of Greenland - an event which does not occur on the GFS 12z op run. Such a feature promotes a strong build of pressure across Scandinavia, and could eventually combine with the Azores High to bring back some settled and warm conditions:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014041512/gem-0-240.png?12

This almost happened on the 00z ECM op run, but in the end too much energy was still sent NE for the trough to align favourable for a large rise in pressure close to the NE of the UK.

The 12z ECM op looks a tad better aligned, but still has more energy escaping NE than UKMO and GEM, so... we'll see.

Yes it could be soggy on Sunday/Monday for the south especially.

Master of the undertstatement Ian.  This time last year in the Dover Straits SSTs were 4 celcius, now they are 11 C; a staggering 7 degrees warmer, thanks to the now strong sun and utter lack of anything remotely approaching real cold since  April 2013.

WI

Spring 2014 has been a huge success story all round. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

From the majority vote (UKMO, GEM and ECM), it appears conditions should gradually recover after the Easter Weekend, which of course is entirely as expected 

Under yet another area of very slack airflows, it would feel decent enough in between the showers and rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

This ECM 12z op run takes a long time to shift that slack region of instabillity, but the idea of HP to our NE combining with a ridge from the Azores starts to become apparent on day 10.

GFS seems to be off on one of those zonal ramps again, although we can never fully discount it based on that alone.

Sounds like bad news for the weekend - I hope it doesn't verify.

Keeps changing so much this week for the Easter weekend I think it could come down to open the curtains on Easter Sunday to see what you have, models having big changes from run to run even as we approach the reliable time frame.

The weekend situation is actually a case of good fortune trying to prevent bad fortune but not quite suceeding - the tale goes like this:

One day about a week ago, the models picked up on the idea that the jet stream would become amplified somewhere near the UK, with a notable ridge-trough pattern forming. They promtly got very carried away with it...

...but after some rather chaotic and somewhat concerning output, some showing extremely amplified patterns with troughs digging right down across the UK from the Atlantic and a large Atlantic ridge bringing a plunge of Arctic air, a new player entered the field, and changed the game completely.

That player was a burst of jet energy coming off the U.S. and/or Canada, flattening the ridge in the Atlantic and preventing the diving trough from the NNW and cold plunge of air. Initially, the models saw this leading to a ridge to the S/SE of the UK, with the Atlantic blasting through to our NW and bringing a changeable westerly flow.

This didn't last long, however, as the models soon toned down the Atlantic, and for a brief, glorious moment, it appeared that we'd be left with a ridge right across the UK with warm air abundant, meaning a very decent Easter weekend indeed.

...but there were doubters among the models, most notably GEM, with ECM soon catching on. They showed the amplified jet pattern, originally contemplated days beforehand before having been dropped, managing to evolve over Scandinavia ahead of the burst of jet energy upstream in the Atlantic.
This saw a trough modelled to drop down through Scandinavia and then act as a stool on which our ridge could stand, resulting in a Scandi High and an easterly flow across the UK.

Since then, that trough dropping through Scandi. has remained, but there has been some debate over where it will go next.

For a time, it appeared it would sink down into NW Europe and allow us to remain largely fine under the ridge, but the past 24 hours or so has seen the area of cooler upper air and instabillity projected to track around the periphery of a broad Euro trough, keeping westward momentum until right on top of England, when the easterly flow is cancelled out by the Atlantic westerlies... just classic for a long weekend, and an absolute dream in the depths of winter!

The track of a small, ill-defined disturbance around the edge of a broad, ill-defined trough over Europe is not going to be easy for the models to resolve. For that reason, tonight's tri-model agreement between UKMO, ECM and GEM is somewhat uncanny...

Official forecast on BBCTV tonight was to get your barbecues in early!

Wow, that's like... nearly 3 times warmer!!!!

UKMO, ECM and GEM present the same sort of theme again this morning, with the upper trough dominating on Sunday, then easing off through BH Monday, leaving a slack regime with a Euro trough and high pressure across the northern half of the UK, extending well to our NE.

Temperatures might manage to remain respectable out to Saturday, before Sunday and perhaps Monday see supressed maximums under a lot of cloud and areas of rain.

Following ECM and GEM, next week then sees some warmer air about, which means that where the sun comes through, temperatures would respond nicely. There is the risk of a more marked trough developing over Europe and drifting north, though this is not shown by any of the three models covered so far.

What about GFS, then? Well... it's out of sinc with the other models by day 4, and by day 5 the Atlantic trough is blasting NE as opposed to being negatively tilted (i.e. elongated SE to NW) and supporting high pressure to the E and NE of it, which is what UKMO, ECM and GEM go for.

By day 6, an Atlantic onslaught is incoming, with an unsettled westerly regime following for a couple of days before pressure rises from the SW. The lack of support from the other models gives me cause to set this run aside for now - we all know how GFS struggles with trough/blocking to our NE interactions.

The Evening Standard yesterday was talking about 20C by Sunday in London... my phone is telling me cloudy and max 12C. We shall see...

GFS 06z much more settled. Our very benign spell looks set to continue for the foreseable. What a contrast to the chaos over winter

A upper cold trough has been on the cards for a while, especially with ECM
Most models now bring heavy rain in across S and E UK Sunday. Low maxima too.

Perhaps the Evening Standard isn't performing too well these days?

now thats not what i want to read hopefully the ECM has blown a fuse , its Easter nice weather please for us hard workers to enjoy

Same story as this morning for now... ECM, GEM and UKMO showing the upper trough sinking away south a little, then perhaps hanging around close to the SW as the Atlantic sends reinforcements. It gradually warms up again from Monday, but remains showery with the risk of slow moving areas of rain at times.

GFS continues to be the odd one out, though it has at least stopped sending the Atlantic energy relentlessly NE. Instead, it sends energy SE like ECM etc - but more of it than those models i.e. it remains more progressive!

Still, got a decent day across a fair part of England and Wales tomorrow, followed by an okay Friday-Saturday away from the east, to get through before all that.