Met Office Hadley         11.0c.   Anomaly     1.0c.    Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                     10.45c.  Anomaly     -0.96c.

N-W                            11.12c.  Anomaly     -0.19c.

Mont Sorrel                  10.95c.  Anomaly     -0.35c.

My Mean                      11.6c.    Anomaly      0.4c.

Yeah, but remember GW thinks that's over-cooked by about 1c!

Probably a bit less than 1*C by now... but yes, still a large overestimation probably. My local mean to the start of today is 10.43*C.

Looks like the CET will gradually edge upward out to Saturday, before Sunday and Monday may hold it back a bit. Then... who knows, the GFS 06z has trended towards ECM's faster transition to a warm spell, but UKMO was very much against it on its 00z run.

I am concerned to see high pressure trying to at least temporarily head to our NW after a run of just 3-5 warm days; this was not in the script for the second half of May when I considered the long range signals at the end of April, and even if it was quickly knocked down again, it would have serious implications for the CET.

It just goes to show what simplification can do - what was originally a fairly smooth path to ever-warmer conditions, leading to a very warm or hot start to the summer, is now a very bumpy road indeed, with many twists and turns! 

"We Travel A Thin Wavy Line"....

IMBY Mean so far 8.5c

Mean min 3.8c

Mean max 13.2c

Met Office Hadley        11.2c.        Anomaly   1.1c.    Provisional to  8th.

Metcheck                    10.66c.      Anomaly  -0.74c.

N-W                           11.26c.      Anomaly  -0.05c.

Mount Sorrel               11.6c.       Anomaly  -0.20c.

My Mean                     11.6c.       Anomaly   0.2c.          

Met Office Hadley         11.8c.      Anomaly     1.8c.    Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                     10.80c.    Anomaly    -0.60c.

N-W                            11.39c.    Anomaly      0.1c.

Mont Sorrel                  11.27c.    Anomaly      0.07c.

My Mean                      11.7c.     Anomaly       0.5c.

The Hadley data has been a bit more sensible over the past few days but my CET figure is still tracking a little over 0.5C below the provisional Hadley.

It actually looks a bit on a cool side based on the current output apart from a brief warmer spell towards the back end of next week. Currently expecing the CET to almost exactly aligned with the 1971-2000 mean by the 24th. Could this be the first month of the year when we don't see a significant positive anomaly? Still a bit early to say.

Here is the list of predictions for May

Thanks for the chart. Am alright if the figure stays where it is.....At Present ,,,,

I think someone should have gone to specsavers

The current MetO figure says 11.3 not 11.8 up to 9th

Or round about.....

I'm having a complete nightmare this spring.

I've gone badly wrong with this one . 

I reckon on the basis of the synoptics for this next 2 weeks that I've gone possibly 2C out.

Met Office Hadley        11.4c.     Anomaly    1.2c.  Provisional  to 10th.

Metcheck                    10.82c.   Anomaly   -0.58c.

N-W                           11.47c.   Anomaly    0.18c. 

Mount Sorrel               11.28c.   Anomaly   -0.02c

My Mean                     11.8c     Anomaly     0.6c.

Starting to feel cool for May here at 9.1C (-0.8)

Will change later this week though.

Met Office Hadley       11.3c.    Anomaly    1.0c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                   10.79c.  Anomaly   -0.62c.

N-W                          11.43c.  Anomaly     0.13c.

Mount Sorrel              11.23c.  Anomaly   -0.07c.

My Mean                    11.6c.    Anomaly   0.4c.

You've gone for 13.3C - Thought I'd gone a bit high with 13C .

There's warmer weather on the way though and looks like it might last a bit longer than originally thought.

Might bale us out.  I hope so.

Met Office Hadley          11.3c.     Anomaly      0.9c.  provisional to  12th.

Metcheck                      10.69c.   Anomaly     -0.72c.    

N-W                             11.38c.   Anomaly      0.09c.

Mount Sorrel                 11.18c.   Anomaly     -0.12c.

My Mean                       11.6c.    Anomaly       0.4c.

Next week's trough positioning looks to be crucial. Get it far enough west and it's warmer than average, but plonked right over the UK and it's colder than average.

Nervous times 

May even be a time of Humidity.....

Yep  - the GFS 00z op run today shows some days with high humidity, minimums of 10-12*C and maximums of 21-24*C. That's CET returns of 15.5-18*C 

ECM's 00z op is probably similar overall, but with warmer night temperatures and lower day temps... maybe 12-14*C by night, 20-22*C by day.

UKMO still shows a nearer average setup away from the SE so those looking for a big CET rise can't rest easier just yet 

Met Office Hadley.         11.3c.      Anomaly     0.8c.    Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      10.68c.    Anomaly    -0.72c.

N-W                             11.32c.    Anomaly     0.03c.

Mount Sorrel                 11.20c.    Anomaly    -0.10c.

My  Mean                      11.6c.     Anomaly      0.4c.

Curiosity led me to do a rough estimate of what the 12z GFS op run would be likely to bring in terms of the final CET.

Up to the end of the run on 29th May, the CET turns out at just over 12*C.

...so those nearer 13*C should hope for either that LP to shift even further SW for next week or for the Scandi High to back west and take over, bringing a very warm SE'rly feed, from around next weekend (24th-25th), rather than with a trough developing and lifting up through the UK to bring a few days of cooler Atlantic air.

A Happy number for over half of the watchers.....